J.Mike Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Does anyone really want an ice storm? I work with folks who are facing a weekend without power (just outside the DC line), including a couple with a new baby. The Metro DC area infrastructure can't handle an ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Does anyone really want an ice storm? I work with folks who are facing a weekend without power (just outside the DC line), including a couple with a new baby. The Metro DC area infrastructure can't handle an ice storm. No I want a snowstorm....at worst I will take another VD sleet storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 The gfs ensemble members all look pretty wintery and many are actually more suppressed than the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I guess what is piquing my interest is the attention hpc is putting on it this far out w/ reconissance data requested and the modeled high to our north. perhaps there is more threat here than I appreciate as I look at the last 24 hours of models... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 The gfs ensemble members all look pretty wintery and many are actually more suppressed than the gfs. wow, Wes gets his internet connection back and already he's talkin' dirty to us seriously, don't you think that's what HPC was basing their statement on Wes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 by the way, I'm surprised JI didn't post this already 18Z NAM sim/rad at 84 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I guess what is piquing my interest is the attention hpc is putting on it this far out w/ reconissance data requested and the modeled high to our north. perhaps there is more threat here than I appreciate as I look at the last 24 hours of models... This is what has me scratching my head. They are either being overly cautious after a stumble on Wed OR there's something of merit here that we're not seeing. I haven't seen model consistency yet. Has anyone else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 by the way, I'm surprised JI didn't post this already 18Z NAM sim/rad at 84 hours It is snow at that point on the NAM....seems like we have at least two models starting out with some snow for a period before any changeover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loshjott Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Does anyone really want an ice storm? I work with folks who are facing a weekend without power (just outside the DC line), including a couple with a new baby. The Metro DC area infrastructure can't handle an ice storm. I'm facing a weekend without power in Silver Spring. I sure don't want an ice storm. Snow - yes; ice - no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I'm facing a weekend without power in Silver Spring. I sure don't want an ice storm. Snow - yes; ice - no. As we saw with this past storm heavy wet snow can be just as bad as ice for knocking out power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Is next week's storm really a Monday night through Wednesday night event as NWS depicts on the extended? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 This one has me concerned. I think it has the possibility to be a crippling ice storm for my area. The setup shown on the GFS is similar to the Feb 2008 ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Does anyone really want an ice storm? I work with folks who are facing a weekend without power (just outside the DC line), including a couple with a new baby. The Metro DC area infrastructure can't handle an ice storm. ice storms are pretty lame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 ice storms are pretty lame Agree. Still parts of my neighborhood out of power. Don't need this thing... snow or no please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 This is what has me scratching my head. They are either being overly cautious after a stumble on Wed OR there's something of merit here that we're not seeing. I haven't seen model consistency yet. Has anyone else? the inland scenario doesnt have much support in the recent pattern tho who really knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 This one has me concerned. I think it has the possibility to be a crippling ice storm for my area. The setup shown on the GFS is similar to the Feb 2008 ice storm. it's a little early to be concerned about a crippling ice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 it's a little early to be concerned about a crippling ice storm Really. have you been through one? They suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 It is snow at that point on the NAM....seems like we have at least two models starting out with some snow for a period before any changeover That overrunning event has been on the GFS for the last 8 runs at least.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Really. have you been through one? They suck. yes. nov 2002 i was in one over 1". i've been in numerous ones around .5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Anyone see that the 6Z DGEX was obviously smoking something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 Anyone see that the 6Z DGEX was obviously smoking something... thats for a 2nd storm...not the mid week storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 thats for a 2nd storm...not the mid week storm My fault, but it still looks sweet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 My fault, but it still looks sweet though. thats okay scruff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 precip starting monday evening per this run of the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 it appears on the latest gfs run that the high on us/canada border is in better position this run. Low looks farther south too. At least to my eye. I may be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 1035 high in a nice spot at least for a few hours...overrunning coming up again on the gfs....how will it end though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Low into Central Ohio at 120...CAD holding but the high is now East....snow to ???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 850's just east of Ji's backyard at 114 but heading North after...looks to me like a 4-6" snow prior to changeover...but I'm stupid so pay me no attention Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 The 18Z GFS is on crack if there is a 1035MB HP in NW NY, and a LP in TN, and we change over. Almost as much crack as the 12Z Euro with it's placement and strength of features. It's getting in the day 3/4 range- when the models go wonky and flip around and the weenies bail. Don't let it fool you again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 36 hour precip ending at 120 is about .75+ area wide...not terrible I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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