Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 secs @ day 9/10 I didn't know you were married yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 secs @ day 9/10 secs with some vodka on the backside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 secs with some vodka on the backside body shots! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 body shots! day 10 huge +NAO, +PNA huge ridge off the west coast, and a lobe of PV over lake superior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Day 7-9 threats can eat it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Models have consistently been over moderating cold air in the northern mid-atlantic and northeast at this range all winter. I expect that is the case again. At this point I'd go with more of a snow/ice type of front end thump then dry slot. Watch as the models trend colder at least at the surface over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I can't wait for the 18z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I can't wait for the 18z runs lol you know everone laughed at theggem with the last storm, but it never let go with that low over eastern tn. idea and sure enough we had one there, and it has led the way here as well. when i see thee ggem with a low off the se. coast post 120hr range--- time to honk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 lol you know everone laughed at theggem with the last storm, but it never let go with that low over eastern tn. idea and sure enough we had one there, and it has led the way here as well. when i see thee ggem with a low off the se. coast post 120hr range--- time to honk whoa...remember the ggem also had the past storm cutting way west for a while...it was the only one that did that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 whoa...remember the ggem also had the past storm cutting way west for a while...it was the only one that did that that is what I recall, but its not the only one doing it this time but the way things have gone this year, we know that until everything is properly sampled, usually within 48 hours of the scheduled start of the event, the models are just guessing where they might be I just don't want to be in the bulls eye any more 3+ days out no matter how much I am enamored with the model maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 i think it is valid to go back to the model runs prior to the ice storm that wanted to run it west. as noted a few times it seems the preference is for coastals lately. but we'll see. if the models keep going west it will be harder to think they are totally crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 doesn't a storm follow the baroclinic zone set up by the jet stream that created it?? if so, then wouldn't the storm follow the jet stream to the east and exit out near the midatlantic , ??? Going due north doesn;t seem to follow the pattern, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 from today's HPC disco PACIFIC RECON FLIGHTS REQUESTED INTO THE CRITICAL UNCERTAINTY AREA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE NE PACIFIC. IF A FLIGHT IS AVAILABLE THIS DATA COULD GET INTO THE MODEL SYSTEMS BY THE RUNS OF SUNDAY 00Z/12Z 30 JAN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Anybody have the updated SREFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 from today's HPC disco PACIFIC RECON FLIGHTS REQUESTED INTO THE CRITICAL UNCERTAINTY AREA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE NE PACIFIC. IF A FLIGHT IS AVAILABLE THIS DATA COULD GET INTO THE MODEL SYSTEMS BY THE RUNS OF SUNDAY 00Z/12Z 30 JAN. If they use Southwest airlines, they won't have to pay for any baggage. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 well, it's just one run ... <snipped> EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 136 PM EST FRI JAN 28 2011 VALID 12Z MON JAN 31 2011 - 12Z FRI FEB 04 2011 ...MAJOR WINTER STORM SETTING UP NEXT WEEK FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE NORTHEAST... MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS AGREEABLE WITH THE LARGE SCALE SCENARIO OF AN ELONGATED MEAN TROF EXTENDING FROM NERN CANADA SWWD INTO THE SWRN CONUS... LIKELY WITH SOME SEPARATION BETWEEN SRN CANADA/NRN TIER CONUS FLOW AND WRN/SRN CONUS FLOW. THIS TROF WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A MEAN RIDGE THAT SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE ERN PAC/WRN CANADA ALBEIT WITH SOME CHANGE IN SHAPE OVER TIME. WHILE A GOOD CONSENSUS EXISTS WITH THE LARGE SCALE MEAN EVOLUTION... THERE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS DUE TO THE SPLIT FLOW NATURE OF THE NOAM PATTERN AND ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTIES PRESENTED BY ERN PAC ENERGY THAT MAY TRY TO PASS THRU THE MEAN RIDGE BY MID-LATE WEEK. THE MOST PROMINENT SFC SYSTEM FOR WHICH SHRTWV UNCERTAINTIES COME INTO PLAY IS FCST TO TRACK NEWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS TUE ONWARD. TO VARYING DEGREES THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE MADE MEANINGFUL NWWD ADJUSTMENTS FROM FAIRLY SUPPRESSED TRACKS IN MULTIPLE PREVIOUS RUNS. THE ECMWF TREND IS MORE EXTREME AS ITS PREVIOUS TWO RUNS WERE ON THE SERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE AND THE NEW 00Z RUN IS NOW ON THE NWRN SIDE OF GUIDANCE. THE CANADIAN IS A FAST EXTREME TO BRING SWRN CONUS ENERGY INTO THE PLAINS AND IS ALSO IN THE NWRN PART OF THE SPREAD... WHILE THE UKMET TRACK IS NOT QUITE AS FAR NWWD AS ITS PREVIOUS RUN. OVERALL PREFER A GEFS MEAN/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLN THAT FALLS IN THE MIDDLE OF LATEST AND RECENT GUIDANCE GIVEN THE SENSITIVITY OF SHRTWV DETAILS AND SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY CHANGES. AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY TUESDAY AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE PLUNGES DEEP INTO THE PLAINS WITH GREATER THAN 20 DEGREE NEGATIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES. THIS WILL BRING STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE CO ROCKIES FRONT RANGE WITH MDT/HVY SNOWFALL TO THE SRN ROCKIES SPREADING EWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MID LEVEL ENERGY SHEARS OUT EWD AND A MDT SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER ERN TX BY TUESDAY. THIS LOW MOVES NEWD INTO KY/TN WED AND REFORMS OFF THE MID ATLC CAPES AND RAPIDLY MOVES NEWD OFF NOVA SCOTIA BY THURSDAY. MDT TO HVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL SOUTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE TRACK WITH SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MAINLY NORTH OF THE OH RIVER AND MASON DIXON LINE INTO NEW ENG. HEAVY SNOW THREAT INDICATED BY OPERATIONAL MODELS QPF OUTPUT/ANALOGS AND FAVORABLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET STRUCTURE WITH ICING THREAT ALONG THE CHANGE OVER AND THEN THE DAMMED IN AREA IN THE MID ATLC PIEDMONT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Seems like HPC likes the ice scenario down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Whats HPC have against the Mid-Atlantic Region "AND THEN THE DAMMED IN AREA IN THE MID ATLC PIEDMONT." Maybe they should reword that a bit.. Sounds like Damn the Mid-Atlantic area..Ah.. Just having some fun here.. Anyway, next week looks like another busy week, definiteley not a clear cut forecast. Given what happen this week, all bets are off next week.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 It's been awhile since we've had a crippling ice storm. I'm game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 VERY, VERY BUSY model tracking week just ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Well, 18z NAM has slightly better confluence for us, but not sure its gonna matter as things out west look a bit more amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Seems like HPC likes the ice scenario down here. I'm really quite surprised at how bullish they are already on this. Models show almost every scenario right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 Well, 18z NAM has slightly better confluence for us, but not sure its gonna matter as things out west look a bit more amplified. what does it take to get a good snowstorm around here? geez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 as crazy as it sounds, NAM looks like it wants to leave the southern end of the energy behind and let the northern stream out run it to the east I know its 84 hr NAM, but I'm just wasting some Fri pm time before I go out drinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Found this in the Philly forum WITH ARCTIC AIR ADVANCING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, MOST NUMERICAL MODEL PROJECTIONS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM OVER TEXAS. THESE MODEL RUNS PREDICT THE STORM WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND. DESPITE MOST MODELS AGREEING ON THIS TRACK TODAY, FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS THEY HAVE BEEN ALTERNATING BETWEEN A GULF COAST TRACK AND AN OHIO VALLEY TRACK. THEREFORE THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE FUTURE PATH OF THIS SYSTEM. THE HAZARDOUS SNOW/ICE/RAIN AREAS DELINEATED ON THE MAIN GRAPHIC MAY NEED TO BE SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT, AND SHOULD NOT BE INTERPRETED TOO LITERALLY AT THIS TIME. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT RESIDENTS THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US STAY UPDATED WITH THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION REGARDING THIS WINTRY STORM SYSTEM AT HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV . ANOTHER CONSIDERATION IS THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN TEXAS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF STATES. THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT CONSIDERED HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT A DEPICTION ON THE COMPOSITE MAP. HOWEVER, IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT RESIDENTS IN THIS AREA CONSULT THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION REGARDING THIS STORM, SHOULD CONDITIONS CHANGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Found this in the Philly forum WITH ARCTIC AIR ADVANCING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, MOST NUMERICAL MODEL PROJECTIONS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM OVER TEXAS. THESE MODEL RUNS PREDICT THE STORM WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND. DESPITE MOST MODELS AGREEING ON THIS TRACK TODAY, FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS THEY HAVE BEEN ALTERNATING BETWEEN A GULF COAST TRACK AND AN OHIO VALLEY TRACK. THEREFORE THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE FUTURE PATH OF THIS SYSTEM. THE HAZARDOUS SNOW/ICE/RAIN AREAS DELINEATED ON THE MAIN GRAPHIC MAY NEED TO BE SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT, AND SHOULD NOT BE INTERPRETED TOO LITERALLY AT THIS TIME. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT RESIDENTS THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US STAY UPDATED WITH THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION REGARDING THIS WINTRY STORM SYSTEM AT HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV . ANOTHER CONSIDERATION IS THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN TEXAS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF STATES. THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT CONSIDERED HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT A DEPICTION ON THE COMPOSITE MAP. HOWEVER, IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT RESIDENTS IN THIS AREA CONSULT THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION REGARDING THIS STORM, SHOULD CONDITIONS CHANGE. its fine to go over to the PHL forum once and a while and post their stuff here Randy, just be sure you're wearing gloves, OK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I'm not incredibly inspired by the lack of confidence all the guidance is showing. For some reason I wasn't overly concerned about Wednesday, but the whole low-in-the-Ohio-Valley thing just isn't giving me any tingly feelings. Get that high to load up some more or keep the low from bombing out and I'll feel a little better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schinz Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I'm not incredibly inspired by the lack of confidence all the guidance is showing. For some reason I wasn't overly concerned about Wednesday, but the whole low-in-the-Ohio-Valley thing just isn't giving me any tingly feelings. Get that high to load up some more or keep the low from bombing out and I'll feel a little better. "THE HAZARDOUS SNOW/ICE/RAIN AREAS DELINEATED ON THE MAIN GRAPHIC MAY NEED TO BE SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT, AND SHOULD NOT BE INTERPRETED TOO LITERALLY AT THIS TIME. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED THAT RESIDENTS THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US STAY UPDATED WITH THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION REGARDING THIS WINTRY STORM SYSTEM" I am not sure how much more inspired you want to be at this juncture than what was said above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I'm not incredibly inspired by the lack of confidence all the guidance is showing. For some reason I wasn't overly concerned about Wednesday, but the whole low-in-the-Ohio-Valley thing just isn't giving me any tingly feelings. Get that high to load up some more or keep the low from bombing out and I'll feel a little better. I'm with ya' here I doubt this is an all snow event for us but, the way the winter has gone before Wednesday, 3-4"+ of snow followed by sleet and zr is fine with me I'll keep my hopes up for one decent, all snow event this year and call it a victory once we get it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I'm gonna go ahead and lock this in for JYO....all other model runs or surface features don't matter...thanks 66 01/31 06Z 29 28 31 5 0.01 0.00 535 556 -6.2 -21.9 1026.5 99 -SN 012OVC039 CLR CLR 32 29 0.5 72 01/31 12Z 23 21 24 6 0.01 0.00 534 557 -6.1 -21.9 1029.9 94 -SN 016BKN058 CLR 293SCT357 29 23 1.1 78 01/31 18Z 26 23 39 5 0.00 0.00 533 557 -6.8 -22.3 1030.6 88 -SN 028BKN054 CLR 273SCT347 26 23 2.9 84 02/01 00Z 22 21 44 6 0.00 0.00 532 558 -6.8 -22.9 1032.8 83 -SN 027BKN051 174SCT228 238BKN378 27 22 0.5 90 02/01 06Z 20 18 46 4 0.00 0.00 531 557 -5.4 -22.3 1033.2 82 -SN 036BKN076 FEW 236BKN373 22 18 0.6 96 02/01 12Z 19 17 56 5 0.04 0.00 532 558 -3.5 -22.8 1034.2 91 -SN 021BKN100 117SCT140 287SCT366 20 19 0.5 102 02/01 18Z 22 20 53 4 0.05 0.00 533 559 -3.1 -22.0 1032.5 98 -SN 016BKN089 115BKN140 295SCT423 22 19 0.5 108 02/02 00Z 22 21 52 5 0.04 0.00 535 560 -2.6 -21.9 1032.2 98 -SN 015BKN102 116SCT133 257BKN432 23 22 0.5 114 02/02 06Z 20 20 56 5 0.04 0.00 537 559 -2.7 -21.6 1029.1 100 -SN 000BKN092 158SCT209 238BKN414 22 20 0.0 120 02/02 12Z 19 19 53 5 0.28 0.00 540 558 -2.6 -19.3 1023.0 100 -SN 011BKN097 122BKN230 230OVC412 20 20 0.0 126 02/02 18Z 27 26 72 5 0.48 0.00 545 552 0.8 -17.9 1009.5 100 PL 005BKN112 120BKN228 240OVC411 27 19 0.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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