Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Cutter or no cutter, at least it looks like winter weather is the outcome. Just messier if the Euro is sniffing it out. A lot of high pressure to the north and strength of the low to be resolved. There will be a lot of peices moving around on the models over the weekend. Gotta stick with the GFS. It's on a great run for sure. As great as the last storm was, I couldn't enjoy it at all. Stuck in bed with a nasty flu and lost power for 36 hours. House got down to 45 degrees. That is about as close to torture as I've ever felt- 103 Fever, freezing house, no tv or internet, and no chance at going outside to enjoy any of the snow. Yuck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 These are super model runs for DCA, in the sense that we're not in the bullseye and we are about five days out from the event - I'm pretty hopeful. Models will pick up on low level cold air as we move toward the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 and this was the storm that had so much cold air to work with and well in place several days back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Still got time on this one, although I think we are moving away from the most ideal situations of yesterday. We need a weak system or one to cut west enough that our low level wind field is really light. The former we get light snow to freezing drizzle, the latter might give us another freezing rain storm like we had earlier this year. Wasn't that a cutter towards teh western OH Valley/Great Lakes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 day 6 it looks like Euro is leaving energy in the SW maybe next system will work out if this doesn't, but I'm not giving up on this yet...way to early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 lax near -4c 850 at 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Cutter or no cutter, at least it looks like winter weather is the outcome. Just messier if the Euro is sniffing it out. A lot of high pressure to the north and strength of the low to be resolved. There will be a lot of peices moving around on the models over the weekend. Gotta stick with the GFS. It's on a great run for sure. As great as the last storm was, I couldn't enjoy it at all. Stuck in bed with a nasty flu and lost power for 36 hours. House got down to 45 degrees. That is about as close to torture as I've ever felt- 103 Fever, freezing house, no tv or internet, and no chance at going outside to enjoy any of the snow. Yuck! Hope you feel better soon - last week I was in bed with the worst flu I have ever experienced in over 40 years. I hope you get well soon and are able to enjoy great snows! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 JMA has shifted South and EAst....would be snow to ice for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 onto the next model runs Fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Fixed. the euro is terrible let's get this out of the way so we can maybe get a break or start finding the feb mecs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Hope you feel better soon - last week I was in bed with the worst flu I have ever experienced in over 40 years. I hope you get well soon and are able to enjoy great snows! Thanks Jeb. I'm 41 and it was the sickest I have ever been. 102-103 fever for over 72 hours and that was after taking some good meds. Lost 10 quick pounds and I'm finally coming to my senses. It's crazy when a 100-101 fever actually feels good. This should be a good warning to everyone on the board. Keep far away from this years flu bug. Just a crushing bug. Back on the models. It seems that all the usual suspects are doing their usual wrangling with solutions. The Euro is a pretty good indicator that a runner is more possible than just and outlier. However, we've seen these types of differences between the majors this far out all year. Probably going to end up colder for us and hopefully a weaker solution overall gives us a shot at an overrunning snow before the switch to ice/drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 day 6 it looks like Euro is leaving energy in the SW maybe next system will work out if this doesn't, but I'm not giving up on this yet...way to early Far too early. Remember 5 days out of this past wallop? The GFS first projected a coastal low that could give us snow, then a friggin Miller B for Jeez's sakes. And during this whole time we were worried about cold air. The ULL situation didn't even resolve until 3 days out. No, I think A LOT will change between now and Tuesday. Just like last storm, Hoffman identified an ideal set up and it worked out. This is similar. There is a High pressure system, cold air in place, and an approaching low. I don't buy the probabilities on a lakes cutter because it's just too far out, and the models have been wrong this far out. Not saying it won't happen, but the models have not been able to pinpoint dynamic specifics for junk so far this year until inside 2-3 days or so. Guarantee things will at least get interesting as we approach . The pattern this year has been more cold air than anticipated, and storms along the eastern seaboard. Although a lakes cutter would be more congruent with a La Nina winter, I still buy into current patterns more than historical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 If the models leave a bundle of energy in the southwest as they appear to be doing, it would be money in the bank for something later in the period. Somehow I believe that energy is going to come out with this storm though, and the models will shift dramatically when they catch on to that, for better or worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Far too early. Remember 5 days out of this past wallop? The GFS first projected a coastal low that could give us snow, then a friggin Miller B for Jeez's sakes. And during this whole time we were worried about cold air. The ULL situation didn't even resolve until 3 days out. No, I think A LOT will change between now and Tuesday. Just like last storm, Hoffman identified an ideal set up and it worked out. This is similar. There is a High pressure system, cold air in place, and an approaching low. I don't buy the probabilities on a lakes cutter because it's just too far out, and the models have been wrong this far out. Not saying it won't happen, but the models have not been able to pinpoint dynamic specifics for junk so far this year until inside 2-3 days or so. Guarantee things will at least get interesting as we approach . The pattern this year has been more cold air than anticipated, and storms along the eastern seaboard. Although a lakes cutter would be more congruent with a La Nina winter, I still buy into current patterns more than historical. the 500 setup is crappy this time tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 the euro is terrible let's get this out of the way so we can maybe get a break or start finding the feb mecs From all people i do not expect this from you, it is still 5 days out and things can change greatly. Did you forget yesterdays 12Z euro was showing close to a foot of snow here and everyone was getting a woody. It may end up being all rain but it is WAY to early to be saying next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 the 500 setup is crappy this time tho That is the one thing that worries me, but it can still change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 156 thru 192 looks extremely boring.. nothing anywhere in the u.s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 From all people i do not expect this from you, it is still 5 days out and things can change greatly. Did you forget yesterdays 12Z euro was showing close to a foot of snow here and everyone was getting a woody. It may end up being all rain but it is WAY to early to be saying next. big overrunning is fairly rare here imo. it's been advertised already this winter and not happened. the pattern is still not that good overall. im hoping it gets better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 From all people i do not expect this from you, it is still 5 days out and things can change greatly. Did you forget yesterdays 12Z euro was showing close to a foot of snow here and everyone was getting a woody. It may end up being all rain but it is WAY to early to be saying next. Yeah. As quickly as they flipped to a cutter they can flip to something better. I'm not super gung ho but I'll definitely be following this hoping for changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 big overrunning is fairly rare here imo. it's been advertised already this winter and not happened. the pattern is still not that good overall. im hoping it gets better. It is definitely not common here at all but that is probably our best hope with this storm if we want mostly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 in 3 runs it went to carp 18z vs 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 the 500 setup is crappy this time tho I can't argue with that, the evidence is blatantly on the models to support that. But my thinking is that just as with the last storm, the dynamics are next to impossible to foresee at this range, not to mention the fact that storm track most likely drastically alter. This winter I just can't buy too much into what the models are projecting from this far out. It's best to just acknowledge the pieces that will be in play and insert the following: there will be more cold air than projected, and the track will probably average out somewhere between I-81 and barely OTS. If I'm wrong and we get a cutter, sue me. But until then the pattern has been too strong this year for me to bet against it. I expect at least measurable wintery precip out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 in 3 runs it went to carp 18z vs 12z [ Thats why I'm not ready to punt. Is it really strating to resolve the features better or is this just noise and it will be showing something totally different 3 runs from now? Who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Remember too that the models are probably not fully sampling all the energy involved with Tuesday's storm yet. This will continue to evolve... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 no real warm up in the long range euro seasonable at best strom in the gulf at hr 222 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Appears to be one of those "glass is half empty" days for Ian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Appears to be one of those "glass is half empty" days for Ian. yawn.. troll harder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 snow for nw va at 234 some -30c air into minn coming down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 no real warm up in the long range euro seasonable at best strom in the gulf at hr 222 secs @ day 9/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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