Quasievil Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Did CTBlizz have a talk with you? In all seriousness, I actually agree. BTW, from the Philly forum, most of the indv. gfs ensembles members are south of the OP In checking out the past 4 runs of the GFS it has def trended farther south from its 12Z. Plus that "block" in Hudson Bay is farther south too especially how 0Z depicted it. Good trends maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I'm not yet impressed with next week's storm though it's so far out there I guess anything can happen. I'm not a fan of vorts that go north of us with Miller B type storms, the scenario shown by the GFS. It leaves us with the potential dry slot, p type issues, snow to freezing rain to maybe rain if the 00Z euro or 12Z GGEM are right. The good news is the ggem loves wrapping storms up. The bad news is the mean trough looks pretty far west. If we get a weak wave that is minoring out we might stay cold but then run into the dry slot problem. We could get light snow to moderate snow to drizzle with that scenario. If we get a stronger one, we might end up with the low going much farther west leading to a warmer look than the gfs. The euro ensemble from last night looked closer to the gfs than euro at least to me but I'm sure there was spread that the mean doesn't adequately snow. So much for rambling. I won't be doing a blog on it until Sunday so this is just some prelim thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 12Z GFS says warmest it gets during the whole event at Martinsburg is 24 degrees at the surface on Wed at 21Z, with about 1" total precip by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 its actually pretty warm for an ensemble mean yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 it definitely leaves much to be desired but i'd lean against the interior (well west) low for now at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 4 to 7 inches of snow, following by a nice washing away rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Per GFS, IAD doesn't get above freezing the entire event.. and as we know in these CAD situations surface temps on the models rarely trend up as we get closer to game time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Per GFS, IAD doesn't get above freezing the entire event.. and as we know in these CAD situations surface temps on the models rarely trend up as we get closer to game time. But with miller b type storms the qpf often goes down as you approach it. If the miller b holds, we'll probably see winter weather and some snow as the initial air mass is pretty cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreeRedheads Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 For IAD: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 4 to 7 inches of snow, following by a nice washing away rain That would be perfect. Then we could hope for overperforming cold air and ice on top of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 4 to 7 inches of snow, following by a nice washing away rain this is bs. where is it getting 7 inches of snow from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Per Tombo: the high pressure on the euro is unbelievable at hr 96 compared to last nights run...plus 1040 high over upstate ny.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Just for the heck of it: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Per Tombo: the high pressure on the euro is unbelievable at hr 96 compared to last nights run...plus 1040 high over upstate ny.. its gon rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 its gon rain Yup looks like possibly: hr 108 has a 1008 low in east central ark...still a 1036 high over upstate ny.....overunning still occuring...but the 850s are flying north fast.. just past dc For sure freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 hr. 114 1004 low southern ill 0c in central pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 hr 120 0c nyc to just south of lake erie 1004 low southern indy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 hr. 114 1004 low southern ill 0c in central pa if it cuts real early, that's better than cutting so close to us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Looks like Euro switches us over to plain rain after some overrunning frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 All that high pressure to the north, but with a wrapped-up west track, no sign of CAD on the ECMWF: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 hr 120 0c nyc to just south of lake erie 1004 low southern indy Where's the surface high, Does it still have the freezing rain look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Euro bowed to GFS this week, and no storms have cut is such a long time, so I'm riding the pattern repetition and hot model hand on this one until GFS bows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 as usual, the euro is too warm 5 days out just like it has been for the past several events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 hr. 114 1004 low southern ill 0c in central pa to get from NE AR to southern Ill it would have to be moving almost due north? If so did the high move our or is it splitting the high? I guess the trough is trending towards more amplification out west which would destroy the confluence over the midwest and allow a zone for it to cut. This was why weaker is better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Where's the surface high, Does it still have the freezing rain look? we get a bubble of 1040 over ny way before the storm but it getsd pushed out looks like shen. valley gets a lot of ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Still got time on this one, although I think we are moving away from the most ideal situations of yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 Still got time on this one, although I think we are moving away from the most ideal situations of yesterday. buckeye gets 1.5 inches.... of warm rain(upper 30's) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 wow euro gets toasty here too...mid to upper 40's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 looks like dc gets a little over a tenth by hr 114 then the 32 line retreats north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 looks like mostly rain for all the big cities hr 132 1000mb low near bradford pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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