mitchnick Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 lol classic plenty of time here looping the 500 6z gfs you can see what a mess has to sorted out Yeah, the storm this week is all the proof anyone should need that you have to wait until at least 48 hours before the event, or less, before you can get a really good forecast. Anything before that will not get the specifics and is random luck, good or bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 A co-worker of mine has been wrong with literally every single snow forecast he's made this year. He posted on FB that the storm could be 3-5" of snow, a mixed precip. event or mostly rain. Based on this, I'm going with 5"+ for the area. Lock it in! (not really quite yet, but leaning that way!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Well, not going to extrapolate the NAM, but that northern stream s/w is pretty strong and diving in. Not sure that's what we want to see. Don't you need the northern energy diving behind the southern energy to get a phase? Not great at reading these but if that's the case wouldn't this argue for the northern energy missing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 A co-worker of mine has been wrong with literally every single snow forecast he's made this year. He posted on FB that the storm could be 3-5" of snow, a mixed precip. event or mostly rain. Based on this, I'm going with 5"+ for the area. Lock it in! (not really quite yet, but leaning that way!) Why would anyone say any estimates about anything yet? Morons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golia1w Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Here's what I mean...we need these two circles to stay separate for as long as possible or not phase at all. And I put elmo in there to let people know that I'm no psuhoffman and not that knowledgeable about this stuff. The Elmo storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Die NCEP website...DIE :gun_bandana: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Randy, I agree it would be better if they don't phase (best case scenario) however, even if they do phase, if the Canadian vortex holds firm, we are good because it would be acting as a block (saving grace scenario) Oh, I agree..I just hate seeing the phased up look on so many models. I think, as we get closer, the models will get a bit colder. Right now, worse case scenario is a front end thump of snow and then a nasty ice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 The Elmo storm? If it screws us, that'll be a good name for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 If it screws us, that'll be a good name for it. I'm not sure that I really want to understand this. Yuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 If it screws us, that'll be a good name for it. Well, Feb 2 is Groundhog's Day. Accuwx is already calling it the Groundhog's Day's Storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 at 72 hrs, 12Z GFS is flatter than 6Z fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 looking like snow to ice to rain low in ky strong cad though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 114hrs not as good as 120 hrs at 6Z we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 looking like snow to ice to rain low in ky strong cad though at 114hrs, seems to be leaving more energy in the SW http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_114l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 miller b just in time to save NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 at 5H, this run is definitely flatter than 6z, but surface doesn't seem to reflect that through 114hrs at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 miller b just in time to save NYC that's OK, 6Z saved Boston, so its moving in the right direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 It's out to 138 hr on Huffman's site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 through 138 hrs, it definitely is a slight IMPROVEMENT for the MA vs. 6Z I'm happy since we're heading in the right direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 This is a very convoluted setup. It will take a while to sort out. I like our chances for ice, at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer//gfs/12/gfs_pcp120138_l.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Surface temps are cold here, but its ugly at 850. Ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 This is a very convoluted setup. It will take a while to sort out. I like our chances for ice, at least. verbatim, its probably 4-6" ending as sleet and zr not bad for a mod/strong NINA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 at 5H, this run is definitely flatter than 6z, but surface doesn't seem to reflect that through 114hrs at least Yep...we NEED a flatter look. I was happy with the look out west at 78 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Surface temps stay below freezing for areas on and north of I-95 it looks like. Looks like light snow to some serious sleet or freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 actually, GFS continues with the several day snow event with minor overrunning snow beginning as early as the 6 hours ending Tuesday 12Z, with the main show coming in Wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 We need a stronger high to the north to keep it from cutting. The PV is in a good position. High is just a little to weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 If that CAD is being modeled correctly, that would be a nice event out here. 850 never gets much above 0. Snow to sleet and freezing rain with significant amounts of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I dunno guys, looks like most sleet/zr to me before a change to plain rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 If that CAD is being modeled correctly, that would be a nice event out here. 850 never gets much above 0. Snow to sleet and freezing rain with significant amounts of precip. CAD isn't modeled correctly at this time it should only get stronger on the models with time and that will help redevelop the Low on the coast sooner and further south we gud for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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