PhineasC Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 We started out in a worse position on the last storm than we have with this one. I think there is still time to bring this one home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 So in the lull between events, I was wondering if I could get away with asking a few noob questions based on everything I've been reading for the last week that I couldn't find answers to on wikipedia... 1. A lot of the posted models have been for vorticity. What is vorticity, and why do we care? Does vorticity equate to precipitation? 2. When something has a "negative tilt," what does that mean? 3. For a deformation band, don't you need two low pressure areas? Where was the second one for this storm? 4. What is phasing? If this isn't a good place for me to post questions like this, my apologies - no offense will be taken if a mod or admin wants to move this someplace else. Otherwise, thanks in advance! The clique here tends to ignore newbies - don't take it personally. Believe it or not, Weather.com is a good place for basic definitions: http://www.weather.com/glossary/v.html Another good site: http://weather.unisys.com/index.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 lulz... why would they make that call this far out? I'd wait until at least Sunday to tell people who just got 8-12"+ that they could get even more from this one. Ratings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 We started out in a worse position on the last storm than we have with this one. I think there is still time to bring this one home. dgex(i know its garbage) but there are multiple waves(2 storms)..the 1st storm would be the "cutter" and the 2nd wave would bring it up the coast. Would make for a very stormy week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 dgex(i know its garbage) but there are multiple waves(2 storms)..the 1st storm would be the "cutter" and the 2nd wave would bring it up the coast. Would make for a very stormy week euro showed the same thing but the second went off the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Looks a little ominous down here-- even the WARM 6z gfs had my surface temps in the upper 20's and a slow steady freezing rain. (between .5 and .75 qpf) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 key, imho, will be how far the vortex in Canada drifts east if it hangs out over or just east of Hudsons Bay, we'lll be good but if it drifts further east, it opens up the opportunity for it to cut all the way because if the vortex stays put, it will not make it to PITT and it will redevelop off the NC coast, or even VA capes, and that's still good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 key, imho, will be how far the vortex in Canada drifts east if it hangs out over or just east of Hudsons Bay, we'lll be good but if it drifts further east, it opens up the opportunity for it to cut all the way because if the vortex stays put, it will not make it to PITT and it will redevelop off the NC coast, or even VA capes, and that's still good I think the even bigger key is the phasing or lack thereof out west. YOu can notice the difference btween the 6z and 0z out west. Keep the streams separate as shown on the 6z and we're good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I think the even bigger key is the phasing or lack thereof out west. YOu can notice the difference btween the 6z and 0z out west. Keep the streams separate as shown on the 6z and we're good. "Don't cross the streams!" The Ghostbusters Storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Models are typically poor with CAD this far out.. and considering the significant signature they are already portraying 100+ hours out I'd say this little chance of being anything but snow and/or ice assuming these solutions pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 The clique here tends to ignore newbies - don't take it personally. Believe it or not, Weather.com is a good place for basic definitions: http://www.weather.com/glossary/v.html Another good site: http://weather.unisys.com/index.php Hush you. Or you'll be denied a boarding pass for next time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 if we see buckeye posting in this thread, were pretty much sunk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Here's what I mean...we need these two circles to stay separate for as long as possible or not phase at all. And I put elmo in there to let people know that I'm no psuhoffman and not that knowledgeable about this stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 if we see buckeye posting in this thread, were pretty much sunk Yeah, that's my signal too...we're not necessarily sunk, but you know he's secretly smiling hoping for a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltimoreguy Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I'm just happy to have a storm to track on a weekend without NFL football. I have little doubt the TV mets will be flogging this storm big-time all weekend to make up for their whiff on Wednesday p.m. Which makes me think it will probably fizzle 1-3 days out, and then everyone will be mad at the mets again for yet another bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Yeah, that's my signal too...we're not necessarily sunk, but you know he's secretly smiling hoping for a cutter. Second option is it cuts SOO far west all we get is a burst of WAA precipt and thats it. It be mostly ice down here, but you guys may squeeze an inch or three-- especially HTOwn areas..etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 Yeah, that's my signal too...we're not necessarily sunk, but you know he's secretly smiling hoping for a cutter. well a cutter screws him too..he needs an app runner. Euro gave us more frozen than him last night despite its horrific track cause he dont have the CAD baby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Well, not going to extrapolate the NAM, but that northern stream s/w is pretty strong and diving in. Not sure that's what we want to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Well, not going to extrapolate the NAM, but that northern stream s/w is pretty strong and diving in. Not sure that's what we want to see. Yeah, I don't think that look is a good one for us. Not sure how that can NOT phase - looks like the northern stream is digging down hard there...yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Yeah, its phasing out west for sure. Not sure what it would do down the line, but it has the look of the other models that cut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 Yeah, its phasing out west for sure. Not sure what it would do down the line, but it has the look of the other models that cut maybe that s/w energy hangs back and the northern stream runs out in front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 maybe that s/w energy hangs back and the northern stream runs out in front or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I'm just happy to have a storm to track on a weekend without NFL football. I have little doubt the TV mets will be flogging this storm big-time all weekend to make up for their whiff on Wednesday p.m. Which makes me think it will probably fizzle 1-3 days out, and then everyone will be mad at the mets again for yet another bust. I doubt very seriously that they think they busted. !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Here's what I mean...we need these two circles to stay separate for as long as possible or not phase at all. And I put elmo in there to let people know that I'm no psuhoffman and not that knowledgeable about this stuff. Next time maybe some bikini model or something? Just glad it wasn't Barney. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 if we see buckeye posting in this thread, were pretty much sunk meh, like you im always checking out what other regions are thinking. For the millionth time, buckeye no like cutters. They are as bad if not worse for us than you guys. At least with a cutter you guys dont have to smell the snow to your nw. Im hoping basically for the same thing you are. A less phased solution and a more sw to ne overrunner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Typical NAM bias out past 72 hours... over amplified. Ask yourself- would it really be that "warm" here with <-40C 850s in eastern Canada and a 1036MB HP area from Michigan to NY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Typical NAM bias out past 72 hours... over amplified. Ask yourself- would it really be that "warm" here with <-40C 850s in eastern Canada and a 1036MB HP area from Michigan to NY? But the Euro is doing the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 But the Euro is doing the same thing. It was way too warm for this past event. If I recall correctly, central NY would have had mixing issues during last weekend's Euro runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I think the even bigger key is the phasing or lack thereof out west. YOu can notice the difference btween the 6z and 0z out west. Keep the streams separate as shown on the 6z and we're good. Randy, I agree it would be better if they don't phase (best case scenario) however, even if they do phase, if the Canadian vortex holds firm, we are good because it would be acting as a block (saving grace scenario) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 if we see buckeye posting in this thread, were pretty much sunk lol Here's what I mean...we need these two circles to stay separate for as long as possible or not phase at all. And I put elmo in there to let people know that I'm no psuhoffman and not that knowledgeable about this stuff. classic plenty of time here looping the 500 6z gfs you can see what a mess has to sorted out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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