BethesdaWX Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Quite a CAD being modeled for this far out. Snowcover is an added bonus this time....the CAD last go around never eroded really, stuck there the whole time. This is a bit off topic, but the sky just lit up green for 2-3 seconds...scared the sh*t out of me....what was that?! Definitely Not Lightning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Quite a CAD being modeled for this far out. Snowcover is an added bonus this time....the CAD last go around never eroded really, stuck there the whole time. FYI, this is a bit off topic, but the entire sky just lit up green for 2-3 seconds...scared the sh*t out of me....what was that?! Transformer? Maybe upper air tests? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravenmaniac Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 We could lose a lot of our snowcover this weekend, highs in the low 40's a possibility. Not time to panic yet, but if the GFS continues to show the lakes cutter through the 0z runs Saturday night, I think the writing will be on the wall that this isn't our major storm. Euro has bounced between lakes cutter and major storm, as has GFS though, so honestly, give it another 24-36 hours looking at trends before we can get a feel for it. Even then it will be over 72 hours away it looks. But if the trends would continue in a bad direction for us, confirming an early phase, it's unlikely that phase will all of a sudden show to be much later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 We could lose a lot of our snowcover this weekend, highs in the low 40's a possibility. Not time to panic yet, but if the GFS continues to show the lakes cutter through the 0z runs Saturday night, I think the writing will be on the wall that this isn't our major storm. Euro has bounced between lakes cutter and major storm, as has GFS though, so honestly, give it another 24-36 hours looking at trends before we can get a feel for it. Even then it will be over 72 hours away it looks. But if the trends would continue in a bad direction for us, confirming an early phase, it's unlikely that phase will all of a sudden show to be much later. I'm no Met, but I like what we have here synoptic wise. A stronger high pressure to the north being progged, more snowcover, but my added weeniness is never good when trying to analyze. I like our snowcover actually...it is full of "actual wetness", alot of QPF is compacted, and has gone through several refreezes, so it has alot more staying power from what I can presume. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 JI, is that you who keeps changing the stuff under the thread title? Because those were not "ugly" runs. I went to bed before any of it had run, and expected to read the forum and see no storm at all the way the "sub-headline" reads instead of a powerful storm that may give the area some combination of snow rain ice if they are modeled correctly. Add in that it is six days hence, and those were just..."model runs"....not ugly or otherwise. I may still be too new to this hobby, but my expectations this far out remain simply to see if there is a storm sticking around on the models, and if there is a chance at it being snow. We have that here, so worth keeping an eye on. I sometimes think some of you seem to want/expect that the models will show snow solely on us over and over again in the seven day period ahead of a system, and that does not seem realistic. Perhaps this will cut and we will get rain solely, but I think a better case scenario is at least some ice, and still a chance at snow as opposed to all rain. The cold in place this weekend will not erode easily, and the highs modeled on even the "ugly" runs last night argue against an all rain scenario. Just my two cents at this very early point in the tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 If the 06Z were to verify I would think that areas in Southern Va away from the coast would be looking at a major ice storm. Can't seem to pull up the 138 hr surface temps but find it hard to believe that the CAD would be eroded that quickly with that set up. Yeah, I'm tucked in 20 miles east of the Blue Ridge 60 miles north of the NC boarder. 6z is actually pretty snowy while the 0z was much more icy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 12z GFS at 120 hrs #2 analog http://www.eas.slu.e...fhr=120&flg=new The reason that I used this post as a lead in to mine is that the number one analog to the upcoming system is Jan 26 of 2009. We used that storm in discussion of the storm that was in here Monday of last week. The modeled solutions from last night show a system very similar to that of two years ago. Just a couple of things to consider before we get too down of this one. The EC means are much colder than the OP. In fact, this is probably the biggest difference I've seen in those two for a storm this winter. The 06z GFS is an inch of precip in NoVA with temps never going above freezing at the surface, and for most of the event, 850's are below 0. The DGEX, yes I know, is colder now than it was 24 hours ago. This storm, and the analog above, is a cad situation. That signal is already pretty strong, and those always trend stronger at game time. Mets on this forum have said they felt this unlikely to cut because of what's going on upstream. I would think that would make a transfer likely. I think this still has great potential. We shouldn't write this off just because it doesn't have an ideal track for a blizzard. These types of events are reliable if nothing else. If it all went as modeled, I'd go out on the limb and predict a good snow at the front changing to some freezing rain, drizzle near the end. Of course, the modeling can change quickly. And, a question for those who know. Wasn't last Feb 6 a storm that phased early, and then transfered early? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Yeah, I'm tucked in 20 miles east of the Blue Ridge 60 miles north of the NC boarder. 6z is actually pretty snowy while the 0z was much more icy. I would think in that area you would get a nice thump before you changed over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 JI, is that you who keeps changing the stuff under the thread title? Because those were not "ugly" runs. I went to bed before any of it had run, and expected to read the forum and see no storm at all the way the "sub-headline" reads instead of a powerful storm that may give the area some combination of snow rain ice if they are modeled correctly. Add in that it is six days hence, and those were just..."model runs"....not ugly or otherwise. I may still be too new to this hobby, but my expectations this far out remain simply to see if there is a storm sticking around on the models, and if there is a chance at it being snow. We have that here, so worth keeping an eye on. I sometimes think some of you seem to want/expect that the models will show snow solely on us over and over again in the seven day period ahead of a system, and that does not seem realistic. Perhaps this will cut and we will get rain solely, but I think a better case scenario is at least some ice, and still a chance at snow as opposed to all rain. The cold in place this weekend will not erode easily, and the highs modeled on even the "ugly" runs last night argue against an all rain scenario. Just my two cents at this very early point in the tracking. Don't worry, you've got this thing down pat, with a realistic viewpoint and reasonable expectations considering the big time gap we have to close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 6z GFS is colder than 0z at least in Surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 And, a question for those who know. Wasn't last Feb 6 a storm that phased early, and then transfered early? [/quote http://cms.met.psu.edu/sref/severe/2010/05Feb2010.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I would think in that area you would get a nice thump before you changed over. According to the 6z--yes. Do I buy it, not yet. EC doesn't have that yet. Often with the damming, the MTS to my west start 6-8 hours early while we are too dry. The WAA kicks in right around the time the snows starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 DGEX has an accumulated snowfall map for each run (84-192 hrs.) FYI, today's 6Z run has DCA/BWI in the highest category it generates of 18"+. First time this year its done that. Rest of MA is a lot too, especially VA. just saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Curlyq Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 DGEX has an accumulated snowfall map for each run (84-192 hrs.) FYI, today's 6Z run has DCA/BWI in the highest category it generates of 18'+. First time this year its done that. Rest of MA is a lot too, especially VA. just saying Oooooh, 18'+ or did you mean 18"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Oooooh, 18'+ or did you mean 18"+ I just fixed it. Yeah 18"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Curlyq Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 FWIW.... the met on WTOP this morning put "a curse" on the storm by saying it could be a bigger storm then this past one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Just looked over the 00Z GGEM and it had the storm cutting pretty far west of us but I like the look at 500's for a potential storm behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lisse Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 FWIW.... the met on WTOP this morning put "a curse" on the storm by saying it could be a bigger storm then this past one! This worries me, I'm sure it's going to bust if all the reporters are talking about how big it is now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 FWIW.... the met on WTOP this morning put "a curse" on the storm by saying it could be a bigger storm then this past one! lulz... why would they make that call this far out? I'd wait until at least Sunday to tell people who just got 8-12"+ that they could get even more from this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
litigator01 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 So in the lull between events, I was wondering if I could get away with asking a few noob questions based on everything I've been reading for the last week that I couldn't find answers to on wikipedia... 1. A lot of the posted models have been for vorticity. What is vorticity, and why do we care? Does vorticity equate to precipitation? 2. When something has a "negative tilt," what does that mean? 3. For a deformation band, don't you need two low pressure areas? Where was the second one for this storm? 4. What is phasing? If this isn't a good place for me to post questions like this, my apologies - no offense will be taken if a mod or admin wants to move this someplace else. Otherwise, thanks in advance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 DGEX has an accumulated snowfall map for each run (84-192 hrs.) FYI, today's 6Z run has DCA/BWI in the highest category it generates of 18"+. First time this year its done that. Rest of MA is a lot too, especially VA. just saying Normally don't really consider the DGEX but in this case it's probably pretty close to my thinking on how this storm plays out with an over running event with several pulses coming through. As far as precip type though it's still to far out to tell who would get what, where. One thing I would like to see, if it does play out this way, is higher pressures to the north to help keep the dome of cold air locked in at all levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I told guys not to panic over the 0z GFS...we all know how this goes with CAD, even if it does cut west. 6z GFS run is close, no breathing room, but its back to a frozen scenario. I think it will get better as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 JB talks of a cutter, but says he thinks it goes to PITT and then redevelops, but even he sounded like he was hedging a bit in that he was gun shy to go gung-ho on the cutter idea even if it does, he says snow and ice its too early imho for anyone to be certain of anything anyway, how many cutters have we had in the last month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 lulz... why would they make that call this far out? I'd wait until at least Sunday to tell people who just got 8-12"+ that they could get even more from this one. Because everyone in this forum blasted the tv mets for their handling of the last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 lulz... why would they make that call this far out? I'd wait until at least Sunday to tell people who just got 8-12"+ that they could get even more from this one. Over compensating from the last forecast flub, probably Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 JB talks of a cutter, but says he thinks it goes to PITT and then redevelops, but even he sounded like he was hedging a bit in that he was gun shy to go gung-ho on the cutter idea even if it does, he says snow and ice its too early imho for anyone to be certain of anything anyway, how many cutters have we had in the last month? By any chance did he give a reason for why he felt it would cut that far west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Because everyone in this forum blasted the tv mets for their handling of the last storm. Over compensating from the last forecast flub, probably The problem is that the storm we just had should have been the redeeming storm to make up for the Dec. 26th non-event (which admittedly everyone messed up on), but the ball was dropped yet again for the public forecasters. To now make up for two debacles, they're taking a huge risk this far out and could be setting themselves up for a triad of failure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Typical low track of west of the apps into NE KY & SE OH then redevelops off of the VA Capes. It can run through the higher pressures to the north, and you know how stubborn PVs have been to move out this year so it's got to shunt east. To me this is a an easy setup and forecast out at day 5. Classic climo Miller B (southern) track... snow here with a decent chance of eventually mixing to or changing to sleet, depending on the exact positioning and escape of the HP to our north. If I lived further southwest, I'd be worried of a big time ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 By any chance did he give a reason for why he felt it would cut that far west? he thinks enough energy comes out of the sw to cause it to cut in fact, he reiterates the more that comes out, the more/sooner it cuts of course, that means if less energy comes out, it doesn't cut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I'm no expert (DUH) but when I mentioned I thought that VORT in Pittsburgh wasn't good I was right. At the minimum it means more mixing. Come on weaker energy from the SW!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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