Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Well, its just one run yea but ggem and euro ens were not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Yep, 138 is ugly No way N. Central PA gets snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 well, last night's didn't become a decent hit until 48 hrs before so not being in the bulls eye now is OK by me the threat remains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Northeast High goes out to sea. Midwest high dives down to texas and the low heads up the ohio valley. Not a good run for Virginia snow. Maybe a miller B signature, but probably too far north for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 congrats boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 congrats boston http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_p60_150l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 this storm sucks.. next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Although just like with last weeks storm the GFS appears to be leaving a lot of energy back there in the SW - It will probably take it another 3 days to figure out what to do with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 now watch the ggem be suppressed. Its way too early to start worrying anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Not really a lakes cutter....the center passes right over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 now watch the ggem be suppressed. Its way too early to start worrying anyway we're taking on water grab a bucket man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJDC Wx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Not really a lakes cutter....the center passes right over us. Taken literally, this run is a snow to ice situation for DC. Not that it matters at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Not really a lakes cutter....the center passes right over us. miller b meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 we're taking on water grab a bucket man! I'll hand you my bucket Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 GFS was a pendulum on the last storm too. Stick with the Euro until it bails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 gfs says what warm up after feb 4th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 If the high is where the GFS shows it there is no way this storm comes that far north, none at all...especially given the way the GFS shows it, a 990mb low might be able to do that but not 1005mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJDC Wx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 this storm sucks.. next off the coast at 192. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 gfs says what warm up after feb 4th it'll warm up by spring hopefully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 off the coast at 192. lol the flow is still super chaotic but i like the look going forward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 ggem is fugly as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJDC Wx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 GFES mean came in south of the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 <br />GFES mean came in south of the OP.<br /><br /> <br /> <img src="http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zgfsensemblep12132.gif" /><br /> <img src="http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zgfsensemblep12144.gif" /><br /> <br /><br /><br />Way too warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 this storm sucks.. next It goes from snow to ice/sleet. As long as I dont see rain with this then Im fine with any other solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 Euro is ice for western burbs. Ugly run but this storm is now likely a cutter with early phase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 With the extra snowcover (very compact and Icy for more duration), and ok high pressure to the north, the 00z GFS, Euro, would probably end up snow to Ice. Too early to tell, but I'd bank on ZR with this one if it does not shoot well inland and/or strengthen to our south, increasing warm flow/wind speed. Glad I can finally use "snowcover" as false hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Besides the start of the event.. (which could be a snow or ice..) I think a lot of folks south of MD/PA line will go to rain when the bulk of the precip gets there. If the low truly amplifies the way it is currently being modeled... the primary low will track west of the Appalachian mountains (exact track not know..) If a secondary develops once it gets closer to the east coast is too early to tell.. and would determine if areas further north will change over or not.. Unless you like ice.. (there could be a legit ice threat..) we'll have too see how much CAD will occur with the high that is currently being modeled as the storm approaches from the south-west. If that holds on tough... could be heck of an ice storm....to south of those that stay snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 06Z GFS looks very promising for NoVa on north. 138 hour shows the 850 line up to the Mason Dixon line but you would have to think that most of the precip has already fallen before then. The surface has a nice CAD signature and with the low transferring I would think that would be hard to erode quickly. This looks like a major thump of snow NoVa on north with it ending as some sleet or freezing drizzle towards the southern sections of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 GFS MOS is all ice down my way. -- That thing is cutting pretty far west..makes hit hard to scour the cold air out this far south . BTW, 12z data looks like snow and folks use the term likely and now cuts west and folks used the term likely. 5 days away--- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 GFS MOS is all ice down my way. -- That thing is cutting pretty far west..makes hit hard to scour the cold air out this far south . BTW, 12z data looks like snow and folks use the term likely and now cuts west and folks used the term likely. 5 days away--- If the 06Z were to verify I would think that areas in Southern Va away from the coast would be looking at a major ice storm. Can't seem to pull up the 138 hr surface temps but find it hard to believe that the CAD would be eroded that quickly with that set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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