Ji Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 On 1/28/2011 at 4:26 PM, stormtracker said: I dunno guys, looks like most sleet/zr to me before a change to plain rain? by the time it changes to rain, its over for us and drizzle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Hmmm...0.75"+ of precip for DC and Baltimore through 126hrs. At 126, the 850 0C line is just north of I-95. Is most of that snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 On 1/28/2011 at 4:26 PM, stormtracker said: I dunno guys, looks like most sleet/zr to me before a change to plain rain? plain rain? I don;t think so Randy if these surface temps are right http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer//gfs/12/gfs_ten120138_l.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 This run seems fine to me. 850s are colder now than they were this time range on the last storm. The models will sniff out the cold air as we get closer. I do think this could be a legit ice threat, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 On 1/28/2011 at 4:26 PM, stormtracker said: I dunno guys, looks like most sleet/zr to me before a change to plain rain? Nah, snow thump to ice then drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 On 1/28/2011 at 4:28 PM, WxUSAF said: Hmmm...0.75"+ of precip for DC and Baltimore through 126hrs. At 126, the 850 0C line is just north of I-95. Is most of that snow? looking at GFS MOS, 6 hours ending Wed 12Z is all snow with 540 thickness and -5.5 surface and -2 850's and .22" qpf has fallen by the end of 18Z Wed, .52"qpf has fallen with thicknesses up to 560 and surface at -1.1 and 850 at +1.3 so, verbatim, 3-5" snow/sleet then zr next 6 hours just was posted and BWI never gets above -.9C at the surface (+3.3 at 850) with .26" qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 On 1/28/2011 at 4:33 PM, mitchnick said: looking at GFS MOS, 6 hours ending Wed 12Z is all snow with 540 thickness and -5.5 surface and -2 850's and .22" qpf has fallen by the end of 18Z Wed, .52"qpf has fallen with thicknesses up to 560 and surface at -1.1 and 850 at +1.3 so, verbatim, 3-5" snow/sleet then zr next 6 hours just was posted and BWI never gets above -.9C at the surface (+3.3 at 850) with .26" qpf DCA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 my gut? unless all the energy decides to come out with this system (that only GEM is showing), we saw the warmest run at 0Z last night unlike my last prognostication of our weather, let's all hope this one doesn't bust! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 On 1/28/2011 at 4:34 PM, stormtracker said: DCA? WED 06Z 02-FEB -4.9 -2.5 1029 97 68 0.04 561 538 WED 12Z 02-FEB -4.9 -1.9 1023 99 99 0.22 559 541 WED 18Z 02-FEB 0.2 2.3 1009 100 100 0.52 554 547 THU 00Z 03-FEB -0.2 3.9 1003 99 89 0.18 543 541 THU 06Z 03-FEB -1.9 -6.2 1003 96 80 0.01 536 534 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I've got the GFS forecast sounding for BWI at 132hrs, 0z next Thursday, and it's definitely a FZRA sounding. Actually...probably FZDZ. DCA's barely below freezing at 132 as Mitchnik showed...that's probably just -RA or -DZ. IAD might be sleet at this point. Looks like a fairly deep layer of cold air at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Accuweather already hyping it http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/45062/groundhog-day-storm-may-affect.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 it seems that , on the latest run of the gfs, it is showing a high to the north in canada. Is that helping to keep the surface temps at least at 32?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 On 1/28/2011 at 4:28 PM, PhineasC said: This run seems fine to me. 850s are colder now than they were this time range on the last storm. The models will sniff out the cold air as we get closer. I do think this could be a legit ice threat, though. Well, the trouble is that the trough position is much different and this promised to be more like the freezing rain miller b that we got a week or so ago. Still this early in the game the most you can say is ther models are showing a storm that could produce winter weather. Anything else is a WAG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 On 1/28/2011 at 4:33 PM, mitchnick said: looking at GFS MOS, 6 hours ending Wed 12Z is all snow with 540 thickness and -5.5 surface and -2 850's and .22" qpf has fallen by the end of 18Z Wed, .52"qpf has fallen with thicknesses up to 560 and surface at -1.1 and 850 at +1.3 so, verbatim, 3-5" snow/sleet then zr next 6 hours just was posted and BWI never gets above -.9C at the surface (+3.3 at 850) with .26" qpf GFS model soundings concur, at least for IAD, snow through about 126 hours, then changeover to sleet then quickly to zr for the duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 On 1/28/2011 at 4:42 PM, usedtobe said: Well, the trouble is that the trough position is much different and this promised to be more like the freezing rain miller b that we got a week or so ago. Still this early in the game the most you can say is ther models are showing a storm that could produce winter weather. Anything else is a WAG. and to add the weenie perspective, we were NOT in the bulls eye 5 days before Wednesday's storm, so not being there before next week's storm shouldn't bother us one bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Continuous feed of arctic highs from NW Canada on the long-range 12Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 On 1/28/2011 at 4:48 PM, mitchnick said: and to add the weenie perspective, we were NOT in the bulls eye 5 days before Wednesday's storm, so not being there before next week's storm shouldn't bother us one bit Roger that. That was a nice storm for us and SHWEET for Maryland, Central Park and on up thru the NE. Everyone got to enjoy the Psuhoffman snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 On 1/28/2011 at 4:48 PM, WVclimo said: Continuous feed of arctic highs from NW Canada on the long-range 12Z GFS. Looks cold and probably a bit below normal for most of the period, but nothing bitterly cold for us at a quick glance. Does agree with the Euro's idea of breaking down the PNA ridge and giving hints of a SE ridge way out in fantasy land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I like how the GGEM at 96 has 1040 High Pressure in the prime spot in QB and nice CAD and is about to run that low right up into it. Awaiting the 108 panel... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 On 1/28/2011 at 5:02 PM, stormtracker said: ahhh the trusty ensembles..never lets a weenie down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 On 1/28/2011 at 5:04 PM, Yeoman said: ahhh the trusty ensembles..never lets a weenie down. Yup, they will always have the solution we want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Colonel Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 On 1/28/2011 at 5:02 PM, stormtracker said: image I'll take that ensemble look this far out no problem. The 850/700 temps are a B though. We'll adjust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 On 1/28/2011 at 5:04 PM, Yeoman said: ahhh the trusty ensembles..never lets a weenie down. its actually pretty warm for an ensemble mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 On 1/28/2011 at 5:04 PM, Yeoman said: ahhh the trusty ensembles..never lets a weenie down. We need that 1018 High just to the north of Maine to be there... (further south would probably be better). Like the ensembles look though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 don't forget fellow weenies that the Ensembles this year have been notoriously WEST and not east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 GGEM still inland btw 1008 low into eastern IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 GGEM looks like it's going to cut pretty far west again. But gives us a nice couple-few inches of snow next Tuesday with overrunning ahead of the storm. Monster 1059mb high into Montana at 108hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 The GGEM was way too far west and warm for days on end with this last storm. I wouldn't pay it any mind. Euro and GFS are best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 On 1/28/2011 at 5:16 PM, PhineasC said: The GGEM was way too far west and warm for days on end with this last storm. I wouldn't pay it any mind. Euro and GFS are best. Did CTBlizz have a talk with you? In all seriousness, I actually agree. BTW, from the Philly forum, most of the indv. gfs ensembles members are south of the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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