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End of January/early February storm potential part 2


Hoosier

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WEll Mr. Stupid, we had several sunny days (or partly cloudy, whatever you want ot call them) not only within the past week (January 21st and 22nd I believe), but we also had some a couple (if not a few days) behind the 3-5" clipper earlier this month.

:lol: It was not "several" maybe a few at best! Your making sound like its the sunshine state

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Trend back from what? Either they phase or they don't phase. The ECMWF started "trending" back and many of ensemble partners did in fact, phase.

I don't expect much resolution to the weekend.

I agree that the Euro trended a little. We just have to remember how horrific the 00z run was.

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Having the CMC and Ukie on your side in place of the ECM and GFS is like pinch hitting Tyler Colvin and Jeff Baker for Pujols and ARod.

Except that all the models seem to have major issues. Sure, the GFS and especially the Euro are better, but still very prone to error. How many runs did the Euro flip to the more southern GFS track in the December storm before recorrecting back to a solution close to its original?

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Those normalized deviations in the ensemble are massive. Honestly I don't really care what any models have for now--that Pacific Cyclone is still part of that screaming jet--a lot has to happen.

Do you think we get this "resolved" in the next 24 hours or so?

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Do you think we get this "resolved" in the next 24 hours or so?

2 big "IF's" here--one the cyclone and how it eventually develops. If you look at the spread on the GEFS spaghetti plot at 48 hours--it is unusually large as a result with the placement of the cyclone off the coast. Right now it is a ripple on the Pacific Jet--so a lot has to happen there. Second question is how the first wave/occlusion interacts with the northern stream at 36-42 hours and how much of a "phase" occurs there. The GFS has consistently been more bullish and "initiates" CAA and development of the northern vortex/trough into the plains much earlier than other guidance. All these "interactions" and developments occur within the next 36-48 hours--I would like to believe things will be straightened out quite a bit by the 0Z run of the 29th--about 36 hours from now. We should have a much clearer picture of who gets what. I do think it is becoming obvious regions across the south will certainly be seeing some action though.

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2 big "IF's" here--one the cyclone and how it eventually develops. If you look at the spread on the GEFS spaghetti plot at 48 hours--it is unusually large as a result with the placement of the cyclone off the coast. Right now it is a ripple on the Pacific Jet--so a lot has to happen there. Second question is how the first wave/occlusion interacts with the northern stream at 36-42 hours and how much of a "phase" occurs there. The GFS has consistently been more bullish and "initiates" CAA and development of the northern vortex.trough into the plains much earlier than other guidance. All these "interactions" and developments occur within the next 36-48 hours--I would like to believe things will be straightened out quite a bit by the 0Z run of the 29th--about 36 hours from now.

One of the better posts in a long time, thanks.

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One of the better posts in a long time, thanks.

No problem. Things should resolve here soon. Hopefully we can salvage something here--and it does seem a full phase is not necessary to develop a decent storm threat either. Small changes in timing of the western wave can have huge implications as you said earlier.

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:lol: It was not "several" maybe a few at best! Your making sound like its the sunshine state

My point is we've had more than 1 sunny day. You said it as if January is suppose to be sunny all month.

JAnaury 3rd, 8th - 10th, 16th and 23rd were all sunny as well.

BTW, 3 or more is several IMO.

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My point is we've had more than 1 sunny day. You said it as if January is suppose to be sunny all month.

JAnaury 3rd, 8th - 10th, 16th and 23rd were all sunny as well.

BTW, 3 or more is several IMO.

I bet there were brutal cold days!:lol:

DTX:

We can expect this process will then strengthen the

associated polar front leaving Southeast Michigan on the cold side and

under the northern fringes of the vertical motion pattern supported

by the broad ageostrophic circulation. This means continued below

normal temperatures and an unsettled pattern of light snow during

Monday and Tuesday in our area. Outside of the Canadian solution,

model agreement is reasonable on this scenario of large scale upper

level pattern evolution. The Canadian solution is not necessarily a

throw-away either. It's idea of a progressive/more energetic wave is

within the realm of possibility but would expect a farther south

track based on the position of the low level baroclinic zone.

Assuming a solution more like the GFS and European model (ecmwf) and depictions of

the upper jet maximum departure to the east during Wednesday and

Thursday then looks solid in guiding the long wave trough axis

farther south and east of the Great Lakes. This process will just

reinforce the polar air mass and below normal temperatures in our

area with mostly dry conditions through the middle of next week.

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Can I get your insight b_i?

IWX

ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO NEXT WEEK WITH MODELS CONVERGING ON

OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN. ECMWF HAS ABANDONED ITS SOLUTION OF A

STRONG LOW NEAR CHICAGO ON TUESDAY AND SIDED MORE TOWARD A WEAKER

LOW THROUGH THE GULF AND UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH WEAKER NORTHERN

STREAM WAVE MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC HIGH BUILDING

INTO CENTRAL CONUS. THIS IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS GFS RUNS BUT GFS HAS

BECOME STRONGER WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE. WHILE THE OVERALL

SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS FINALLY COME INTO AGREEMENT...THESE SOLUTIONS

ARE STILL BASED ON TIMING OF PACIFIC SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO

SOUTHWEST CONUS AND ITS INTERACTION AND PHASING WITH NORTHERN STREAM

SHORT WAVE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA INTO CENTRAL CONUS. OF CONCERN

HERE IS THE FACT THAT ECMWF AND GFS WANT TO DEEPEN AND CLOSE OFF THE

PACIFIC SYSTEM AS IT STRENGTHENS BEFORE COMING ONSHORE. MODELS ARE

NOTORIOUS FOR MOVING THESE TYPE OF SYSTEMS EASTWARD TOO FAST GIVEN

THEIR PHYSICS PACKAGES AND BIAS TENDENCIES. THUS TIMING OF THE

INTERACTION AND SUBSEQUENT CYCLOGENESIS REMAINS IN CONSIDERABLE

DOUBT AND MUCH UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES FOR SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT AND

TRACK BY MID PART OF NEXT WEEK DESPITE THE CONVERGING SOLUTIONS.

THUS FEW CHANGES TO OVERALL FORECAST. LOW CHANCE POPS WILL CONTINUE

FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN

SEASONABLY COLD WITH NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

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Can I get your insight b_i?

IWX

ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO NEXT WEEK WITH MODELS CONVERGING ON

OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN. ECMWF HAS ABANDONED ITS SOLUTION OF A

STRONG LOW NEAR CHICAGO ON TUESDAY AND SIDED MORE TOWARD A WEAKER

LOW THROUGH THE GULF AND UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH WEAKER NORTHERN

STREAM WAVE MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC HIGH BUILDING

INTO CENTRAL CONUS. THIS IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS GFS RUNS BUT GFS HAS

BECOME STRONGER WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE. WHILE THE OVERALL

SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS FINALLY COME INTO AGREEMENT...THESE SOLUTIONS

ARE STILL BASED ON TIMING OF PACIFIC SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO

SOUTHWEST CONUS AND ITS INTERACTION AND PHASING WITH NORTHERN STREAM

SHORT WAVE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA INTO CENTRAL CONUS. OF CONCERN

HERE IS THE FACT THAT ECMWF AND GFS WANT TO DEEPEN AND CLOSE OFF THE

PACIFIC SYSTEM AS IT STRENGTHENS BEFORE COMING ONSHORE. MODELS ARE

NOTORIOUS FOR MOVING THESE TYPE OF SYSTEMS EASTWARD TOO FAST GIVEN

THEIR PHYSICS PACKAGES AND BIAS TENDENCIES. THUS TIMING OF THE

INTERACTION AND SUBSEQUENT CYCLOGENESIS REMAINS IN CONSIDERABLE

DOUBT AND MUCH UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES FOR SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT AND

TRACK BY MID PART OF NEXT WEEK DESPITE THE CONVERGING SOLUTIONS.

THUS FEW CHANGES TO OVERALL FORECAST. LOW CHANCE POPS WILL CONTINUE

FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN

SEASONABLY COLD WITH NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

EXACTLY. Nicely said by them--full agreement and they definitely laid out all the key points in this forecast. I fully agree--and I alluded earlier to the AMPED Pacific and that these cyclones as of late have been bombing off the coast in the Pacific then weakening as they interact with the ridge. That was why I was so skeptical a couple days out of the way the Euro/CMC plowed the waves right through the ridge like it wasn't there. Should this bomb out--typically these cyclones will slow a tad and remain less progressive--and a weaker overall cyclone will be less consequential as it passes into the US. That very trend has been what the GFS has been hinting at for a long time--and the ECMWF is catching up. Once that wave "ejects" into the plains--that is where everything really gets muddled.

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Can I get your insight b_i?

Once again--I will post this as a reminder for everyone. The Pacific is bombing hurricane force cyclones out there. The next cyclone in question is still a ripple on the jet and is projected to break off the Pacific jet here soon. Non-linear cyclogenesis lends itself to a lot of variability. Chaos rules here.

post-999-0-77110700-1296165271.jpg

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