dmc76 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 WEll Mr. Stupid, we had several sunny days (or partly cloudy, whatever you want ot call them) not only within the past week (January 21st and 22nd I believe), but we also had some a couple (if not a few days) behind the 3-5" clipper earlier this month. It was not "several" maybe a few at best! Your making sound like its the sunshine state Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 12z Euro ensemble mean has a low over Chattanooga at 144 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 0z runs tonight will be interesting to see. At least we have a couple of models that are looking good at this moment in time. Having the CMC and Ukie on your side in place of the ECM and GFS is like pinch hitting Tyler Colvin and Jeff Baker for Pujols and ARod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 12z Euro ensemble mean has a low over Chattanooga at 144 hours. That is good news... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Ensemble spread for EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 Trend back from what? Either they phase or they don't phase. The ECMWF started "trending" back and many of ensemble partners did in fact, phase. I don't expect much resolution to the weekend. I agree that the Euro trended a little. We just have to remember how horrific the 00z run was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Ensemble spread for EURO Those normalized deviations in the ensemble are massive. Honestly I don't really care what any models have for now--that Pacific Cyclone is still part of that screaming jet--a lot has to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Having the CMC and Ukie on your side in place of the ECM and GFS is like pinch hitting Tyler Colvin and Jeff Baker for Pujols and ARod. Except that all the models seem to have major issues. Sure, the GFS and especially the Euro are better, but still very prone to error. How many runs did the Euro flip to the more southern GFS track in the December storm before recorrecting back to a solution close to its original? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 Those normalized deviations in the ensemble are massive. Honestly I don't really care what any models have for now--that Pacific Cyclone is still part of that screaming jet--a lot has to happen. Do you think we get this "resolved" in the next 24 hours or so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Do you think we get this "resolved" in the next 24 hours or so? 2 big "IF's" here--one the cyclone and how it eventually develops. If you look at the spread on the GEFS spaghetti plot at 48 hours--it is unusually large as a result with the placement of the cyclone off the coast. Right now it is a ripple on the Pacific Jet--so a lot has to happen there. Second question is how the first wave/occlusion interacts with the northern stream at 36-42 hours and how much of a "phase" occurs there. The GFS has consistently been more bullish and "initiates" CAA and development of the northern vortex/trough into the plains much earlier than other guidance. All these "interactions" and developments occur within the next 36-48 hours--I would like to believe things will be straightened out quite a bit by the 0Z run of the 29th--about 36 hours from now. We should have a much clearer picture of who gets what. I do think it is becoming obvious regions across the south will certainly be seeing some action though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 2 big "IF's" here--one the cyclone and how it eventually develops. If you look at the spread on the GEFS spaghetti plot at 48 hours--it is unusually large as a result with the placement of the cyclone off the coast. Right now it is a ripple on the Pacific Jet--so a lot has to happen there. Second question is how the first wave/occlusion interacts with the northern stream at 36-42 hours and how much of a "phase" occurs there. The GFS has consistently been more bullish and "initiates" CAA and development of the northern vortex.trough into the plains much earlier than other guidance. All these "interactions" and developments occur within the next 36-48 hours--I would like to believe things will be straightened out quite a bit by the 0Z run of the 29th--about 36 hours from now. One of the better posts in a long time, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 One of the better posts in a long time, thanks. No problem. Things should resolve here soon. Hopefully we can salvage something here--and it does seem a full phase is not necessary to develop a decent storm threat either. Small changes in timing of the western wave can have huge implications as you said earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 It was not "several" maybe a few at best! Your making sound like its the sunshine state My point is we've had more than 1 sunny day. You said it as if January is suppose to be sunny all month. JAnaury 3rd, 8th - 10th, 16th and 23rd were all sunny as well. BTW, 3 or more is several IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 My point is we've had more than 1 sunny day. You said it as if January is suppose to be sunny all month. JAnaury 3rd, 8th - 10th, 16th and 23rd were all sunny as well. BTW, 3 or more is several IMO. I bet there were brutal cold days! DTX: We can expect this process will then strengthen the associated polar front leaving Southeast Michigan on the cold side and under the northern fringes of the vertical motion pattern supported by the broad ageostrophic circulation. This means continued below normal temperatures and an unsettled pattern of light snow during Monday and Tuesday in our area. Outside of the Canadian solution, model agreement is reasonable on this scenario of large scale upper level pattern evolution. The Canadian solution is not necessarily a throw-away either. It's idea of a progressive/more energetic wave is within the realm of possibility but would expect a farther south track based on the position of the low level baroclinic zone. Assuming a solution more like the GFS and European model (ecmwf) and depictions of the upper jet maximum departure to the east during Wednesday and Thursday then looks solid in guiding the long wave trough axis farther south and east of the Great Lakes. This process will just reinforce the polar air mass and below normal temperatures in our area with mostly dry conditions through the middle of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I feel really good about where I am with this..I have a feeling my area is gonna get nailed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I feel really good about where I am with this..I have a feeling my area is gonna get nailed. For being 5 days out living in area that average 9.4"/year...I feel surprisingly confident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 LOT leaning GFS/Euro, mentions 1-2 inches before the main action passes well south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Can I get your insight b_i? IWX ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO NEXT WEEK WITH MODELS CONVERGING ON OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN. ECMWF HAS ABANDONED ITS SOLUTION OF A STRONG LOW NEAR CHICAGO ON TUESDAY AND SIDED MORE TOWARD A WEAKER LOW THROUGH THE GULF AND UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH WEAKER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC HIGH BUILDING INTO CENTRAL CONUS. THIS IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS GFS RUNS BUT GFS HAS BECOME STRONGER WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE. WHILE THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS FINALLY COME INTO AGREEMENT...THESE SOLUTIONS ARE STILL BASED ON TIMING OF PACIFIC SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST CONUS AND ITS INTERACTION AND PHASING WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA INTO CENTRAL CONUS. OF CONCERN HERE IS THE FACT THAT ECMWF AND GFS WANT TO DEEPEN AND CLOSE OFF THE PACIFIC SYSTEM AS IT STRENGTHENS BEFORE COMING ONSHORE. MODELS ARE NOTORIOUS FOR MOVING THESE TYPE OF SYSTEMS EASTWARD TOO FAST GIVEN THEIR PHYSICS PACKAGES AND BIAS TENDENCIES. THUS TIMING OF THE INTERACTION AND SUBSEQUENT CYCLOGENESIS REMAINS IN CONSIDERABLE DOUBT AND MUCH UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES FOR SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK BY MID PART OF NEXT WEEK DESPITE THE CONVERGING SOLUTIONS. THUS FEW CHANGES TO OVERALL FORECAST. LOW CHANCE POPS WILL CONTINUE FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEASONABLY COLD WITH NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Can I get your insight b_i? IWX ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO NEXT WEEK WITH MODELS CONVERGING ON OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN. ECMWF HAS ABANDONED ITS SOLUTION OF A STRONG LOW NEAR CHICAGO ON TUESDAY AND SIDED MORE TOWARD A WEAKER LOW THROUGH THE GULF AND UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH WEAKER NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC HIGH BUILDING INTO CENTRAL CONUS. THIS IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS GFS RUNS BUT GFS HAS BECOME STRONGER WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE. WHILE THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS FINALLY COME INTO AGREEMENT...THESE SOLUTIONS ARE STILL BASED ON TIMING OF PACIFIC SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST CONUS AND ITS INTERACTION AND PHASING WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA INTO CENTRAL CONUS. OF CONCERN HERE IS THE FACT THAT ECMWF AND GFS WANT TO DEEPEN AND CLOSE OFF THE PACIFIC SYSTEM AS IT STRENGTHENS BEFORE COMING ONSHORE. MODELS ARE NOTORIOUS FOR MOVING THESE TYPE OF SYSTEMS EASTWARD TOO FAST GIVEN THEIR PHYSICS PACKAGES AND BIAS TENDENCIES. THUS TIMING OF THE INTERACTION AND SUBSEQUENT CYCLOGENESIS REMAINS IN CONSIDERABLE DOUBT AND MUCH UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES FOR SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK BY MID PART OF NEXT WEEK DESPITE THE CONVERGING SOLUTIONS. THUS FEW CHANGES TO OVERALL FORECAST. LOW CHANCE POPS WILL CONTINUE FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEASONABLY COLD WITH NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. EXACTLY. Nicely said by them--full agreement and they definitely laid out all the key points in this forecast. I fully agree--and I alluded earlier to the AMPED Pacific and that these cyclones as of late have been bombing off the coast in the Pacific then weakening as they interact with the ridge. That was why I was so skeptical a couple days out of the way the Euro/CMC plowed the waves right through the ridge like it wasn't there. Should this bomb out--typically these cyclones will slow a tad and remain less progressive--and a weaker overall cyclone will be less consequential as it passes into the US. That very trend has been what the GFS has been hinting at for a long time--and the ECMWF is catching up. Once that wave "ejects" into the plains--that is where everything really gets muddled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 Per Harry, the op Euro is the farthest south out of all 51 members. Ensembles are a bit farther north and bring good qpf into Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Hi everyone...looks like an active week next week. I am hoping for the "big" one here in Southern Indiana...hopefully we can get another December 2004. Here is to hoping... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Can I get your insight b_i? Once again--I will post this as a reminder for everyone. The Pacific is bombing hurricane force cyclones out there. The next cyclone in question is still a ripple on the jet and is projected to break off the Pacific jet here soon. Non-linear cyclogenesis lends itself to a lot of variability. Chaos rules here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 this map out of cleveland basically shows all you need to see at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 18z GFS is a no go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 this map out of cleveland basically shows all you need to see at this point. wtf? CMC = GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Per Harry, the op Euro is the farthest south out of all 51 members. Ensembles are a bit farther north and bring good qpf into Michigan. That's a nice surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 wtf? CMC = GEM. German? There is a German model I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 You better hope it is right. It busted badly this week around this same timeframe. Better hope what is right? I hope the ECMWF is right--but I think it is a very low probability this thing tracks N like the previous Euro did. I am just going off the evidence we have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 wtf? CMC = GEM. Good find. I didnt even notice. Yea Im not sure about that.. Ill try to find out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 German? There is a German model I know. If there's a German model, I'm sure it's efficiently lethal. Also, it's interesting how I see the JMA get more and more recognition. I think it's passed the "joke model" threshold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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