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End of January/early February storm potential part 2


Hoosier

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It would have been nice to get our inland bomb but all I was looking for on the 12z Euro was that it wouldn't trend even worse or stay the same. It didn't and in fact there was a positive baby step. Next 1 or 2 runs will be very important.

Yeah I would rather be in you or Bucky's corner than JI's for snow and not rain.

Hope for another baby step tonight,

Gone Fishing..

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GFS has 4-7 inches here. The ukmet smashes us, the gem is a bit norh, the GFS ensemble mean gives us snow as well. the euro is the odd man out so far.

but it seems even without a major phase I can still get snow..we will see.

Yeah I actually like the looks of this right now haha...even the Euro still gives me a couple inches of snow. Looks like it would take a pretty aggressive phase for this to be mainly rain in the OKC area...of course I wouldn't totally rule that out yet.

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admitteldy i do like the teleconnections which i know are only a part of the puzzle......but at least when we get up to my lattitude, they are a major part of the puzzle.

the door is open if something wants to cooperate....however with the huge PV over hudsons bay, we will need some phasing to bring it north and the pac ridge is eating up energy for breakfast.....

more likely, as of right now looking at models and teleconnections, looks to be a classic overrunner which when taking into consideration end of jan climo in the eastern lakes, favors the SW ontario/OV/NYS along and south of I-90 and SNE corridor.

alternatively, we end up with a useless scenario which passes harmlessly off the SE or southern coast.

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admitteldy i do like the teleconnections which i know are only a part of the puzzle......but at least when we get up to my lattitude, they are a major part of the puzzle.

the door is open if something wants to cooperate....however with the huge PV over hudsons bay, we will need some phasing to bring it north and the pac ridge is eating up energy for breakfast.....

more likely, as of right now looking at models and teleconnections, looks to be a classic overrunner which when taking into consideration end of jan climo in the eastern lakes, favors the SW ontario/OV/NYS along and south of I-90 and SNE corridor.

alternatively, we end up with a useless scenario which passes harmlessly off the SE or southern coast.

:(

Another NAM run about to fire up, lets see how many more it has in the tank before it starts the downward trend with the Pac storm.

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You know what is starting to bother me... We have had like 1 sunny day in the last 20 days. Its starting to get to me.

That's what it's like here in Western Michigan the whole winter...people start getting pretty grumpy. But then it's the opposite in the summer, where it's one beautiful sunny day after another.

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Large shift towards fail from 12z to 18z. Much less phasing and a decided step towards a GFS type solution. EDIT: looks worse than i tought by 72, orphan vort sliding down the coast as the northern piece gets ready to dump down the cold.

The debate over how cloudy michigan is, is really boring btw.

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Call me mr stupid...but I cant recall remember 7 partly cloudy days. Sorry

WEll Mr. Stupid, we had several sunny days (or partly cloudy, whatever you want ot call them) not only within the past week (January 21st and 22nd I believe), but we also had some a couple (if not a few days) behind (or ahead) the 3-5" clipper earlier this month.

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Careful. Sampling of the northern stream is critical. This goes right to the weakest part of model sampling. It may not phase as quick, but it may phase.

sure it wasn't a major difference, but it will have major implications down the road, it's possible we trend back, but i'm not holding my breath.

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