Stebo Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 get your coats out in Vegas 144 is even better probably snow out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 yeah ggem nails LAF with 1.23 qpf...sfc tmps never reach above 25 and 850 tmps 0c and falling through the event. wanna post those maps of the GEM you throw up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 wanna post those maps of the GEM you throw up? 108 & 120 ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Pretty interesting mix of +'s and -'s with this one for our area. I like the trends with the jet at 200-300mb, nice looking streak up towards the NE. I like the possibility for some impressive cyclogenesis in the southern plains along the baroclinic zone. I really like the wide open gulf, ample moisture and strong flow should crank up great WAA snows ahead of the low for someone. The negatives have been well hashed out. We're in the game, not longshots and not favored. about a 24 degree temp gradient from northern KS to the red river, pretty impressive. and the models are already hinting at a decent amount of WAA snow north of the boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 the king has initialized Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 108 & 120 ggem thanks man, not as good as the 0z run for here but still a solid hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Nasty cutoff. That would almost be as bad as like how New England felt last yr when it was pouring snow in NYC and raining on them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 Pretty interesting mix of +'s and -'s with this one for our area. I like the trends with the jet at 200-300mb, nice looking streak up towards the NE. I like the possibility for some impressive cyclogenesis in the southern plains along the baroclinic zone. I really like the wide open gulf, ample moisture and strong flow should crank up great WAA snows ahead of the low for someone. The negatives have been well hashed out. We're in the game, not longshots and not favored. GFS is progging 850 mb winds of 60-70 kts into the Ohio Valley, so yeah, moisture won't be an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 For the first time I can remember, at least regarding this storm, the GFS ensembles are now south of the OP GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 about a 24 degree temp gradient from northern KS to the red river, pretty impressive. and the models are already hinting at a decent amount of WAA snow north of the boundary. we need more explosive storm development to get those winds down south to start backing more out of the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illinois Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 GFS data for Olney-Noble Airport in Illinois is 1.6 inches liquid with a max temp of 31 during the storm, looks incredibly nasty here in southeastern Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 For the first time I can remember, at least regarding this storm, the GFS ensembles are now south of the OP GFS. I noticed that. Remember the EURO ensembles were further north than the operational run a couple of days ago, and then the operational shifted north later. Could be a sign of what the GFS will do.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 we need more explosive storm development to get those winds down south to start backing more out of the southeast. reminded me of severe wx season when i first read that lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 12z ECMWF... More interaction as things come onshore in the Pac NW by 42hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 reminded me of severe wx season when i first read that lol not too far off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 SPI getting rick rolled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 might be one of the times where the ensembles are going to play catchup to the op, been rare this winter. But it would certainly seem that way to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 decent agreement between about half of those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 might be one of the times where the ensembles are going to play catchup to the op, been rare this winter. But it would certainly seem that way to me. I'm used to the GFS ensembles being south of the OP at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 12z ECMWF... More interaction as things come onshore in the Pac NW by 42hrs. Still looks that way...I guess the bigger question now is how much it tries to leave behind later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 SPI getting rick rolled I live in the highest ice accumulation their....in the lighter red...maroon color... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I live in the highest ice accumulation their....in the lighter red...maroon color... Ya icing potential is going to have to be watched with this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 84hrs: 1000mb SLP in NE. New MExicao. Widespread light precip across the Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Ya icing potential is going to have to be watched with this thing. If things never go neg tilt and we have a prolong SW flow over entrenched cold it could be a big time threat, although duration should keep the icing in check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 84hrs: 1000mb SLP in NE. New MExicao. Widespread light precip across the Plains. Does it look like it's going to leave a huge chunk of the ul trough behind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 Does it look like it's going to leave a huge chunk of the ul trough behind? At 96 it looks like it might. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Does it look like it's going to leave a huge chunk of the ul trough behind? It's looking like it may leave more behind than the 0z. Also...1052mb high on the Montana/Canadian border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 at 72 doesnt seem to look all that different from the GFS wrt heights in the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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