Organizing Low Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 It's going to sting like hell if it ends up staying south of us. if the energy comes out in pieces and the trough elongates like that, you will get fringed IMO.... SN- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 You'll get snow, my worry with you being so far east would be mixing issues well sounds as if you are hopeful of stronger phasing, i hope you are right cuz this aint getting up here in the manner its being depicted right now. but of course there is an eternity to go, and as SSC says a lot to be determined how that energy ejects eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 GGEM cuts off a lot of the energy but still yields a good storm, maybe next northern stream vort picks up what was left behind and way down the road another large storm (fantasy) Stebo, what are your thoughts on the models closing off and retrograding that northern piece after what looks like it's going to be a full phase? It might be me being a but that doesn't strike me as a common occurrence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Teleconnections argue NW, but seasonal trends are SE....I like the GEM where it is right now based on recent performance of the model. ggem has been too far nw and strong. Might be a good thing....we end up with a track thru KY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 You'll get snow, my worry with you being so far east would be mixing issues Interesting. Sort of answers my above question. So you think the retrogression stuff is bunk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Looks like were finally going to get a snowstorm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Looks like were finally going to get a snowstorm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Stebo, what are your thoughts on the models closing off and retrograding that northern piece after what looks like it's going to be a full phase? It might me being a but that doesn't strike me as a common occurrence. Yeah that one is quite interesting thats for sure, I really don't know what to make with it to be honest. I know I haven't seen something like that occur in a while if at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Interesting. Sort of answers my above question. So you think the retrogression stuff is bunk? could be, I'd be leaning toward it being bunk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Looks like were finally going to get a snowstorm! Temper your enthusiasm. We're still on the outside looking in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Totally confused at this point. Is the GL in the game at this point? When I went to bed, this thread was at 33 pages, as of right now, it's 50...So something is going on. Need to do some serious catching up. As an aside: Local TV was showing snow for Mon, Tues, Wed next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Ice map looks nasty for some counties http://grib2.com/gfs...-FZRN_120HR.gif After the ice storm you had a few years back, I am rooting for snow sleet or rain for you because that ice storm was a crippler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Ice map looks nasty for some counties http://grib2.com/gfs...-FZRN_120HR.gif I am north of Cincinnati and we may see more sleet then freezing rain. As for those in southeast Indiana and Cincinnti that is ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 new Ukie looks pretty close to the GFS with the track of the sfc low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Totally confused at this point. Is the GL in the game at this point? When I went to bed, this thread was at 33 pages, as of right now, it's 50...So something is going on. Need to do some serious catching up. As an aside: Local TV was showing snow for Mon, Tues, Wed next week. Bigtime in the game!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Interesting. Sort of answers my above question. So you think the retrogression stuff is bunk? Looks odd, but if it's still advertised by 12z tomorrow, you'd have to think there's something to it. It's also showing up on quite a few models, so that also increases my belief that it's not totally off base. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Im just learning the GGEM run is the Low off the Coast Mass at 144hr? transfered? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 by Wednesday Bowme will break his snow drought. edit: this winter screams nickel and dimes with misses to the south and east and pattern changer will hammer areas north and west of us pessimistic much? almost to the annoying stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Temper your enthusiasm. We're still on the outside looking in. I know I know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 I don't have the exact qpf but the GGEM hammers LAF with over a foot of snow...this in a tamer scenario where the entire thing doesn't eject out (but that's probably a good thing for my backyard). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I don't have the exact qpf but the GGEM hammers LAF with over a foot of snow...this in a tamer scenario where the entire thing doesn't eject out (but that's probably a good thing for my backyard). Yeah you and me both, If it all comes out at once we both are talking mixing issues I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 not a lot of answers on the 9z SREFS, some wild solutions each way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I don't have the exact qpf but the GGEM hammers LAF with over a foot of snow...this in a tamer scenario where the entire thing doesn't eject out (but that's probably a good thing for my backyard). no doubt that you and I and most of the i-70 corridor will be screwed with a big phase. You're a little safer but you would probably not escape the waa rush north. We need strung out and a sw to ne low. You don't need a strong low to bring a ton of moisture with it in this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I am north of Cincinnati and we may see more sleet then freezing rain. As for those in southeast Indiana and Cincinnti that is ugly wanna talk about temp swing.. On the gfs CMH gets to 33 and mansfield never gets higher than 20 and is in the teens for most of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 NAM and GFS at 84hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 get your coats out in Vegas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Need the King to come in south, I am on the border of a huge foot or more snow and half snow, half sleet and some zr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 get your coats out in Vegas PIA would get crushed as well, still looks decent up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 pessimistic much? almost to the annoying stage. Pretty interesting mix of +'s and -'s with this one for our area. I like the trends with the jet at 200-300mb, nice looking streak up towards the NE. I like the possibility for some impressive cyclogenesis in the southern plains along the baroclinic zone. I really like the wide open gulf, ample moisture and strong flow should crank up great WAA snows ahead of the low for someone. The negatives have been well hashed out. We're in the game, not longshots and not favored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I don't have the exact qpf but the GGEM hammers LAF with over a foot of snow...this in a tamer scenario where the entire thing doesn't eject out (but that's probably a good thing for my backyard). yeah ggem nails LAF with 1.23 qpf...sfc tmps never reach above 25 and 850 tmps 0c and falling through the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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