buckeye Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Is the NOgaps more north then the GFS? I believe so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 The baroclinic zone over the panhalndle area is looking more explosive each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 See how cold its behind this bad boy? Just imagine all that ice=power outages=folks freezing to death... Question for you Ohio folks.. Do you really want to see this scenario? I mean if it was true we would be in some serious $hiT!!! Wouldn't be bad here, but I wouldn't want to wish that on my home in Cincy LOL. Honestly I would always take rain and 33, 35, 40, even 50 degrees over that much ice. That is destructive... Buckeye, careful what you wish for! We'll get a no phase and no storm based on seasonal trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 The baroclinic zone over the panhalndle area is looking more explosive each run. This is something we'll have to watch later on. The models are notorious for not handling the southward penetration of arctic air into the Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Is the NOgaps more north then the GFS? you be the judge. It was in w, KY in the previous panel. Good hit for hoosierville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 This is something we'll have to watch later on. The models are notorious for not handling the southward penetration of arctic air into the Plains. Seems like they've been a little quick with it this winter, but i may be way off. Either way with the kind of great gulf flow and artic airmass nearby, something pretty good should pop along that boundary. Maybe it's the weenie in my, but that 850map and gulf flow screams WAA, i can't tell you how many times that is underdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 12z GGEM at 60 fairly similar to 0z GGEM at 72 out on the WC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 doesn't surprise me....we got NO breathing room for stronger. We need weaker and a trend to less phasing. Not too big of a wish this season at least Rephrase.. Wouldnt it be likely with more phasing we would see some dynamic cooling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 This thing is looking great from St. Louis to LAF. Dry air eats away the precip over northern IL. Still a long ways to go, and definitely a step in the right direction for the GFS compared to previous days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 The GFS mos even changes MIE over to freezing rain for a while with surface temperatures in the upper teens to near 20 - that truly would be devastating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I think we're getting to the point where we can assume that the stream interaction along the west coast is a done deal. The idea of keeping both s/ws separate a la the GFS runs previous from 12z yesterday is not going to pan out. What happens once the trough pulls out of the rockies is still undetermined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 The baroclinic zone over the panhalndle area is looking more explosive each run. by Wednesday Bowme will break his snow drought. edit: this winter screams nickel and dimes with misses to the south and east and pattern changer will hammer areas north and west of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torontonian Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 12z GGEM at 60 fairly similar to 0z GGEM at 72 out on the WC Seems like we have been waiting for a couple of years for something looking like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 GFS looks more like the Canadian - seems like the Canadian has had this far north/west solution for awhile. Canadian did well on the last event for our region. did terrible for ours....way too nw had several runs bringing a moderate to heavy event here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I think we're getting to the point where we can assume that the stream interaction along the west coast is a done deal. The idea of keeping both s/ws separate a la the GFS runs previous from 12z yesterday is not going to pan out. What happens once the trough pulls out of the rockies is still undetermined. I think i'm there too, now it's about how they emerge from the mountains and lee side cyclogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 GGEM takes the Low over SEMI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Seems like we have been waiting for a couple of years for something looking like that. By the time we get to next Wednesday it'll be 8 straight days without accumulating snow. I'll be happy with anything but a complete whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 The GFS mos even changes MIE over to freezing rain for a while with surface temperatures in the upper teens to near 20 - that truly would be devastating. Seems weird...I wouldn't have guessed that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 This thing is looking great from St. Louis to LAF. Dry air eats away the precip over northern IL. Still a long ways to go, and definitely a step in the right direction for the GFS compared to previous days. fire up your snow magnet and all should be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 GGEM takes the Low over SEMI? Don't think it's out that far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Stupid decision to come peek at the GFS cost me a beautiful morning of ice fishing and a ride to the lake.. Now I get to drive myself 45 mins to meet them and I won't be able to get my drink on. When this storm tracking takes over my ice fishing and drinking with the gang I know I officially need help.. Gotta say right now I would rather be south east of here say around LAF.. But then I think back to 07/08 in this time frame and if I had a dollar for every time I seen someone say there is no way this thing can cut into that high or blocking I would've had enough money for a summers supply of Steele Reserve.. Major dysfunction is this is nothing like back then and the trend is no doubt not my friend.. At least its showing a little overunning or w/e love so it might not be a total whiff and others can hopefully get the big one. This isn't going to be our last biggie potential to track before winter is out either. I'm on the Josh Train for Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Looks like GEM will be north of GFS based on hour 96. Honestly I would prefer to have the GEM a little to NW for us to get clobbered based on how it did this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Seems weird...I wouldn't have guessed that. I don't think mie would. 850's get to -1 2m temps stay in the -7 to -8 range. It'd be close but id bet they'd stay all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Don't think it's out that far? I'm only out to 96. Looks like it'll be at least as far north as the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Don't think it's out that far? Im not sure if Im looking at an old run or what, but hr 144 has the Low over Owen sound Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Don't think it's out that far? i got it to 96 and it looks like it may come south. HP is pressing hardcore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 i got it to 96 and it looks like it may come south. HP is pressing hardcore Damn I missed the 1058mb high. That's impressive...Maybe it won't cut north as much, but it seems a little too far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I'm only out to 96. Looks like it'll be at least as far north as the GFS. i got a 1008 over brownsville or just north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Im not sure if Im looking at an old run or what, but hr 144 has the Low over Owen sound Canada Could you gives us the link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 GGEM takes the Low over SEMI? I am afraid that if we get a full on phase and all the energy comes out together and we get a huge NW trend. Sure there is a block but it can be moved. Thats how pattern changes happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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