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End of January/early February storm potential part 2


Hoosier

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Exactly, along with the placement of the PV, hence the reason it didn't cut on the 00z run and why it won't and isn't cutting again on the 12z run. Obviously whether it cuts or not has to do with phasing, but also the placement of the other surface features and the pv.

Ya but with the high pressure further northwest that would allow it to come north a tad which it looks to be doing on this run through 114hr.

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What a cluster****! At 120, after "dephasing" with first northern s/w, looks like the GFS is attempting a second phase with a s/w dropping out of the Canadian Prairies.

i noticed that as well

this is similar to the evolution of the past storm. The trough began to hold back to the point it appeared it was laying down west to east.

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i noticed that as well

this is similar to the evolution of the past storm. The trough began to hold back to the point it appeared it was laying down west to east.

It'd be interesting if that 2nd s/w dropping into the plains phased with the retrograding energy later next week. GFS shows it too slow for the first phase potential. I think somebody mentioned the possibility of a 1-2 punch.

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Ya but with the high pressure further northwest that would allow it to come north a tad which it looks to be doing on this run through 114hr.

200-300mb jet energy looking more and more storm like every run. I still wouldn't buy too much into individual phasing details, but it looks like a major storm is pretty likely, right now favoring areas well south of here.

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If more of a phase can occur I think it will come north a bit and the transfer idea may go out the window and happen alot later than what the gfs shows. I am just happy the gfs still shows a storm. Thats the idea for the next few days. Just keep the storm there and we can worry about the track, precip types and amounts after the liklihood of a storm happening is higher.

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Meh, I'm not too dissatisfied with being on the northern fringes at this point. I think that dephasing/retrogression thing the models are doing is low confidence. If it doesn't occur, I could see this tracking further N/W.

i agree with this

i think you're in a decent position

sometime it sucks living in the cold factory though, that PV is a beast.:thumbsdown:

as of right now, OV to I-90 corridor still looks best to me here in the east.

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The overall setup in place should help this from cutting too far north, but I can't shake some concern given the trends we're seeing and the northwest trend of yesteryear.

I agree, but hopefully we may have "seasonal" trends on our side this year. But, if we don't stay all snow then ice could be a definite issue here. I just doubt we'll see all rain here in the central part of the state..

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I agree, but hopefully we may have "seasonal" trends on our side this year. But, if we don't stay all snow then ice could be a definite issue here. I just doubt we'll see all rain here in the central part of the state..

Yeah I'd be shocked if this evolved into an all rain scenario for you and me. There is a lot of surface cold air that is going to come into play.

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2m freezing line only briefly comes slightly north of Ohio river. Taking the gfs at face value this would be a brutal icestorm for someone between i-70 and the river.

unless its more of a sleet signature

I foresee sleet and frz rain verbatim even up here in CMH:

WED 00Z 02-FEB -5.2 -2.1 1030 94 78 0.01 559 536

WED 06Z 02-FEB -5.6 0.2 1023 93 98 0.05 556 538

WED 12Z 02-FEB -2.6 0.3 1010 98 99 0.45 550 541

WED 18Z 02-FEB -2.5 0.3 1001 99 98 0.38 539 538

THU 00Z 03-FEB -6.9 -9.8 1009 98 97 0.10 535 528

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I foresee sleet and frz rain verbatim even up here in CMH:

WED 00Z 02-FEB -5.2 -2.1 1030 94 78 0.01 559 536

WED 06Z 02-FEB -5.6 0.2 1023 93 98 0.05 556 538

WED 12Z 02-FEB -2.6 0.3 1010 98 99 0.45 550 541

WED 18Z 02-FEB -2.5 0.3 1001 99 98 0.38 539 538

THU 00Z 03-FEB -6.9 -9.8 1009 98 97 0.10 535 528

doesn't surprise me....we got NO breathing room for stronger. We need weaker and a trend to less phasing. Not too big of a wish this season at least

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