snowstormcanuck Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 What a cluster****! At 120, after "dephasing" with first northern s/w, looks like the GFS is attempting a second phase with a s/w dropping out of the Canadian Prairies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 looks like a major ice storm along the ohio river valley at 114 The SW to NE track is ideal for a significant ice storm somewhere across the OV. Just about a perfect set-up per the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Exactly, along with the placement of the PV, hence the reason it didn't cut on the 00z run and why it won't and isn't cutting again on the 12z run. Obviously whether it cuts or not has to do with phasing, but also the placement of the other surface features and the pv. Ya but with the high pressure further northwest that would allow it to come north a tad which it looks to be doing on this run through 114hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 What a cluster****! At 120, after "dephasing" with first northern s/w, looks like the GFS is attempting a second phase with a s/w dropping out of the Canadian Prairies. i noticed that as well this is similar to the evolution of the past storm. The trough began to hold back to the point it appeared it was laying down west to east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Verbatim off of the 12z GFS, huge ice storm potential from Southern Missouri and the boothill up through Southern and maybe even into portions of Central Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 Not that details are crucial yet but the 850 mb 0C gets to IND on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 i noticed that as well this is similar to the evolution of the past storm. The trough began to hold back to the point it appeared it was laying down west to east. It'd be interesting if that 2nd s/w dropping into the plains phased with the retrograding energy later next week. GFS shows it too slow for the first phase potential. I think somebody mentioned the possibility of a 1-2 punch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Ya but with the high pressure further northwest that would allow it to come north a tad which it looks to be doing on this run through 114hr. 200-300mb jet energy looking more and more storm like every run. I still wouldn't buy too much into individual phasing details, but it looks like a major storm is pretty likely, right now favoring areas well south of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 2m freezing line only briefly comes slightly north of Ohio river. Taking the gfs at face value this would be a brutal icestorm for someone between i-70 and the river. unless its more of a sleet signature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 sfc low track is about the same compared to the 0z run, another STL to LAF hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Not that details are crucial yet but the 850 mb 0C gets to IND on this run. At least it looks to be brief though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Anyone have any idea what to call the trough at 138? What the heck is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 2m freezing line only briefly comes slightly north of Ohio river. Taking the gfs at face value this would be a brutal icestorm for someone between i-70 and the river. unless its more of a sleet signature You read my mind, just posted the same thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Meh, I'm not too dissatisfied with being on the northern fringes at this point. I think that dephasing/retrogression thing the models are doing is low confidence. If it doesn't occur, I could see this tracking further N/W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 At least it looks to be brief though.. The overall setup in place should help this from cutting too far north, but I can't shake some concern given the trends we're seeing and the northwest trend of yesteryear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 If more of a phase can occur I think it will come north a bit and the transfer idea may go out the window and happen alot later than what the gfs shows. I am just happy the gfs still shows a storm. Thats the idea for the next few days. Just keep the storm there and we can worry about the track, precip types and amounts after the liklihood of a storm happening is higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 For the 1st time the GFS is showing plain rain in OKC until Tues. PM, then changing to a brief period of snow late in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 if the GFS is right my parents may have to be moving up here to Charleston and use the spare bedroom as an evac shelter.... Scary looking ice storm on the 12Z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Meh, I'm not too dissatisfied with being on the northern fringes at this point. I think that dephasing/retrogression thing the models are doing is low confidence. If it doesn't occur, I could see this tracking further N/W. i agree with this i think you're in a decent position sometime it sucks living in the cold factory though, that PV is a beast. as of right now, OV to I-90 corridor still looks best to me here in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 The overall setup in place should help this from cutting too far north, but I can't shake some concern given the trends we're seeing and the northwest trend of yesteryear. I agree, but hopefully we may have "seasonal" trends on our side this year. But, if we don't stay all snow then ice could be a definite issue here. I just doubt we'll see all rain here in the central part of the state.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 The overall setup in place should help this from cutting too far north, but I can't shake some concern given the trends we're seeing and the northwest trend of yesteryear. exactly...that is scarred in me even though it hasn't shown itself in nearly 2 winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 next up: oh canada..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Cincinnati output is nearly 1.50 ICE Dayton even gets .50-.75 ICE We have little breathing room now. We have to see what the Foriegn models do now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 I agree, but hopefully we may have "seasonal" trends on our side this year. But, if we don't stay all snow then ice could be a definite issue here. I just doubt we'll see all rain here in the central part of the state.. Yeah I'd be shocked if this evolved into an all rain scenario for you and me. There is a lot of surface cold air that is going to come into play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 nogaps came north some...low from n. ms to south central OH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 2m freezing line only briefly comes slightly north of Ohio river. Taking the gfs at face value this would be a brutal icestorm for someone between i-70 and the river. unless its more of a sleet signature I foresee sleet and frz rain verbatim even up here in CMH: WED 00Z 02-FEB -5.2 -2.1 1030 94 78 0.01 559 536 WED 06Z 02-FEB -5.6 0.2 1023 93 98 0.05 556 538 WED 12Z 02-FEB -2.6 0.3 1010 98 99 0.45 550 541 WED 18Z 02-FEB -2.5 0.3 1001 99 98 0.38 539 538 THU 00Z 03-FEB -6.9 -9.8 1009 98 97 0.10 535 528 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 See how cold its behind this bad boy? Just imagine all that ice=power outages=folks freezing to death... Question for you Ohio folks.. Do you really want to see this scenario? I mean if it was true we would be in some serious $hiT!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 nogaps has the classic 'Parton Signature" at 5H Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 nogaps has the classic 'Parton Signature" at 5H Is the NOgaps more north then the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I foresee sleet and frz rain verbatim even up here in CMH: WED 00Z 02-FEB -5.2 -2.1 1030 94 78 0.01 559 536 WED 06Z 02-FEB -5.6 0.2 1023 93 98 0.05 556 538 WED 12Z 02-FEB -2.6 0.3 1010 98 99 0.45 550 541 WED 18Z 02-FEB -2.5 0.3 1001 99 98 0.38 539 538 THU 00Z 03-FEB -6.9 -9.8 1009 98 97 0.10 535 528 doesn't surprise me....we got NO breathing room for stronger. We need weaker and a trend to less phasing. Not too big of a wish this season at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.