hawkeye_wx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 By 36 hours the 12z GFS does hold the sw Canada energy farther west than the 06z, but it also slows the pac storm, so the two pieces of energy are shifted west of the 06z about equally. There probably won't be any huge changes in the end result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 By 36 hours the 12z GFS does hold the sw Canada energy farther west than the 06z, but it also slows the pac storm, so the two pieces of energy are shifted west of the 06z about equally. There probably won't be any huge changes in the end result. Yeah, the wave spacing looks about the same up to this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 ukie looks like it wouldn't extrapolate to anything close to the euro. Look how much quicker it is with the sw and less impressive with the northern stream...compared to nam probably safe to assume very few questions will be answered today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 northern stream continues to be further west at 42hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 HR 72 has a 1012 low or so in NE New Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Phase is progress at 66. Appears to be occurring much earlier than the 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 How much slower can this storm go? Two days ago we were talking Monday and Tuesday of next week, now it's Wednesday/Early Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 continues to look better at 54hr and already trying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 early returns suggest this will develop quicker and further north intiially but as it comes east, the feature to watch is the PV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 How much slower can this storm go? Two days ago we were talking Monday and Tuesday of next week, now it's Wednesday/Early Thursday. yea, that seems to be an ongoing theme this winter with the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 continues to look better at 54hr and already trying. Yeah, this looks like it will be coming north at least a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 early returns suggest this will develop quicker and further north intiially but as it comes east, the feature to watch is the PV Yup, my thinking. For us, we'd probably want the PV to shift off just a bit to the east (but not too much because if the GFS is as amped as the EURO was at 0z, it could cut without the PV's confluence). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 72hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Not as strong as the NAM with the Northern stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Partial phase at 96 but it appears the northern stream is still detatched and retrograding a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 12z is actually a little farther South with the PV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 early returns suggest this will develop quicker and further north intiially but as it comes east, the feature to watch is the PV good point. Although the gfs may be trying to phase quicker, it also looks like the PV is a bit stronger and a bit west. Will be interesting to see which factor has more play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 No way on the 12z GFS that this thing cuts, not with the placement of the PV and the high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Not as strong as the NAM with the Northern stream strength differences aside, the 500mb maps at 12z on the NAM and GFS aren't all that far apart, i'd call it decent agreement all things considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Partial phase at 96 but it appears the northern stream is still detatched and retrograding a bit. It's becoming a trend and is what i think stops the north trend. what ever storm spins up with crash and burn pretty quick before cutting as it detaches. Excellent gulf flow. watch for WAA to be underdone if this is anything close to being right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Partial phase at 96 but it appears the northern stream is still detatched and retrograding a bit. 5h sh/\ts the bed at 90 it looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 lol, the "phase" as it was is coming undone at 102 and 108. One piece is retrograding while the other is ejecting out. Might end up south of the 0z/6z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Whoever mentioned it wouldn't cut cause of the high...If it doesn't cut that wouldn't be the problem why. The high on the 0z run is in central ND and on this run its further northwest into northeast MT.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Whoever mentioned it wouldn't cut cause of the high...If it doesn't cut that wouldn't be the problem why. The high on the 0z run is in central ND and on this run its further northwest into northeast MT.. Exactly, along with the placement of the PV, hence the reason it didn't cut on the 00z run and why it won't and isn't cutting again on the 12z run. Obviously whether it cuts or not has to do with phasing, but also the placement of the other surface features and the pv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 GFS 120 1001 L in c/s KY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 Surface low a little stronger and perhaps a tick north at 114 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Heck of a rain/ice/snow storm in my area............... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 looks like a major ice storm along the ohio river valley at 114 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Once again looking good for the OV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 sfc low just east of Memphis at 114hr, STL getting clocked along with all of MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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