A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 The GFS ends up further NW in the end. Meh, you can see pretty early on in the run, it won't be good for our area. By hour 48 it's obvious the two storms aren't going to phase enough to lead to a favorable height field out east. We need the GFS and now Euro to trend hard towards the NAM inside 48hrs, after that it's too late. 48hr GFS 48hrs NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 weenie suicide alert if the gfs verifies for them again Sad thing is if you told me it was going to snow 22 out of 27 days here and SNE was having an epic January I would have for sure thought we've had at least a couple Toledo cutters. Gotta enjoy the clippers because that's all the snow we got and I am enjoying them.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Meh, you can see pretty early on in the run, it won't be good for our area. By hour 48 it's obvious the two storms aren't going to phase enough to lead to a favorable height field out east. We need the GFS and now Euro to trend hard towards the NAM inside 48hrs, after that it's too late. 48hr GFS Still a novice when looking at 500 vort and charts but are we looking for the storm to phase with the North arrow or the South arrow, Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 lol if this ends up being another east coast storm. Bow, how much did you get with the clipper this morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Sad thing is if you told me it was going to snow 22 out of 27 days here and SNE was having an epic winter January I would have for sure thought we've had at least a couple Toledo cutters. Gotta enjoy the clippers because that's all the snow we got and I am enjoying them.. Eh its not bad. Minny has 60 inches NYC has 60 Hartford has 70 and boston is close to the same. We can still catch them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 lol if this ends up being another east coast storm. Bow, how much did you get with the clipper this morning? I don't know how much we ended up with here, but according to NWS, some areas have approached 3 inches in SE Wisconsin. I'm guessing Racine, Kenosha, and Walworth counties saw the most based on the radar images. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Still a novice when looking at 500 vort and charts but are we looking for the storm to phase with the North arrow or the South arrow, Thanks It's easier to see here at hour 60. That Pac storm on the GFS is weaker and never comes close to phasing with the northern piece which passes seperately down into the conus, which kills the height field and will stop anything from amplifying. The NAM is much strong, phasing the two vorts together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 It's easier to see here at hour 60. That Pac storm on the GFS is weaker and never comes close to phasing with the northern piece which passes seperately down into the conus, which kills the height field and will stop anything from amplifying. The NAM is much strong, phasing the two vorts together. Gotcha. Thanks for the input. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 loll JI made a topic in the mid atlantic saying "Tracking the Hoosier" storm. Anyone else see that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Gotcha. Thanks for the input. In the end, i think we'll know within 24hrs if those two will play ball and if not, there won't be much use tracking this thing for our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I don't know how much we ended up with here, but according to NWS, some areas have approached 3 inches in SE Wisconsin. I'm guessing Racine, Kenosha, and Walworth counties saw the most based on the radar images. eyeballing 2" maybe a tad more. Clippers haven't busted on the low side at least this month. Wish we could get in to the 2nd clipper a little more but this little bit should help the trails and its good to hear south of me might have got a little more because that's the area we will be riding this weekend, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 In the end, i think we'll know within 24hrs if those two will play ball and if not, there won't be much use tracking this thing for our region. Even if they dont phase, is there a chance the southern storm still intensifies and tracks up the apps or possibly phases with the northern stream again or will the northern stream act as a kicker again and make it move more east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 JI? that must be a joke... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 12z GEM has a NAM-like phase.... big change in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 12z GEM has a NAM-like phase.... big change in the right direction. Good sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I guess it's not as phased as the NAM, but the GEM is definitely better and certainly holds up the northern stream enough so the pac storm can undercut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 maybe i can get some flurries with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 12z GEM has a NAM-like phase.... big change in the right direction. good to hear indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Even if they dont phase, is there a chance the southern storm still intensifies and tracks up the apps or possibly phases with the northern stream again or will the northern stream act as a kicker again and make it move more east. I think we'll be safely too far north if we don't get some kind of phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Good to see the crazy UnKle has got its groove back. Seems like it hasn't been too over zealous with its epic la la land bombs much this winter. And yes before anyone accuses me of it, this is just eye candy, I'm not calling for this solution to pan out. Anyone got a QPF for that? The sites I see only have it through hour 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 good to hear indeed. Ehh can't forget that the Gem showed an apps runner for us with this current system, and was pretty insistant in giving OH people snow up til 2 or 3 days out then went coastal. Needless to say I'm not a huge fan of the ggem right now lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Ehh can't forget that the Gem showed an apps runner for us with this current system, and was pretty insistant in giving OH people snow up til 2 or 3 days out then went coastal. Needless to say I'm not a huge fan of the ggem right now lol.. It's not the same field of play at all and i'm really not that interested in anything beyond 60 hrs right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 12z gem takes a 997mb low to N. Indiana at 144hr, probably crushes Columbia MO or so to Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Ehh can't forget that the Gem showed an apps runner for us with this current system, and was pretty insistant in giving OH people snow up til 2 or 3 days out then went coastal. Needless to say I'm not a huge fan of the ggem right now lol.. It was pretty close to affecting ohio so it wasnt too far off with the initial wave inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Correct me if I am wrong but the Tele-Connections favor a more inland track for this storm not another coastal. If I am betting man I would bet there is better chance of this LOW going west of me as opposed to being a coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 12z gem takes a 997mb low to N. Indiana at 144hr, probably crushes Columbia MO or so to Chicago. not shocking, it's all about the next 48hrs and the initial interaction, it happens BOOM, it doesn't POOP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Correct me if I am wrong but the Tele-Connections favor a more inland track for this storm not another coastal. If I am betting man I would bet there is better chance of this LOW going west of me as opposed to being a coastal. Others on this board like teleconnections a lot more than i do, at this point i don't see the need to dwell on them when its clear who the major players are and what happens if and when they interact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Like Alek and Baro said before, we'll know how this will play out in the next 24 hours which is going to be really nice. NAM/GEM would have a cutter, while the GFS is suppressed. It's not gonna be like other storms where we are going to have to wait until a few days before the system arrives before we have a general idea on where this is going to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 12z gem takes a 997mb low to N. Indiana at 144hr, probably crushes Columbia MO or so to Chicago. From W Arkansas to that position, would be pretty nice snows on the NW side. Can't wait for the color maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Like Alek and Baro said before, we'll know how this will play out in the next 24 hours which is going to be really nice. NAM/GEM would have a cutter, while the GFS is suppressed. It's not gonna be like other storms where we are going to have to wait until a few days before the system arrives before we have a general idea on where this is going to go. While it reduces our chances of a big storm significantly, I still think if it doesn't phase it could meet up with the northern piece again or the northern wave could kick it east and supress it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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