A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Gotta really like the GFS right now and since the upgrade have been very impressed with it this winter. The ECMWF seems clueless to the the storms lower level mass fields while the GFS locks onto it and also with the deep punch of arctic air history would suggest this favors a more southern track. Sure seems like someone is gonna get a good storm out of this at this juncture. Kinda looks like a quick hit of arctic air with a more W to E spill rather than a slower moving N to S. Kinda like the last surge where the core misses the upper midwest and focuses more out east. Welcome, the GFS has been the most consistent and has had the smallest run to run variations but is slowly creeping north. And everyone please add your location to your profile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 DVN always delivers the goods around major events, they're not on board yet, OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION AVERAGE WITH CONSIDERABLEQUESTION ON RELIABILITY OF ENERGY IN NORTH PACIFIC CAPTURED BASED ON WATER VAPOR ARRIVING EARLY NEXT WEEK. TRENDS AND ENERGY SPECTRA ANALYSIS SUPPORTS A 80/20 BLEND OF GFS AND HI-RES ECMWF THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME THERMAL INPUTS FROM 80 KM NAM-WRF. SOME SUGGESTION ECMWF CENTRAL PACIFIC ENERGY VERIFIES MORE ACCURATE AT 06Z...IF SO...THIS WILL RESULT IN HEAVIER AND FURTHER NORTH PRECIPITATION. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SIGNIFICANT PHASING PROBLEMS AS ALLSOLUTIONS HAVE SLOWED SW US SHORT WAVE (NOW IN CENTRAL N PACIFIC) THE PAST 24+ HOURS IMPACTING PHASING AND POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER NORTH SNOW AND STORM TRACK. THIS LARGE RUN TO RUN VARIANCE AND LARGE ENSEMBLE SPREAD LEADS TO THE REASON HAVE BEEN CONSERVATIVE ON ONLY A MODEST UPPING OF POPS TUE/WED. LARGE SCALE JET DYNAMICS IS CLOUDED WITH HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL FIELDS OCCLUDE WITH THIS SYSTEM...PLUS MODEL SMOOTHING ISSUES. JET STREAK LENGTH SUGGEST ALL OR MOST SOLUTIONS ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH ON QPF AMOUNTS. THUS...HAVE MAINLY LOW CHANCE POPS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH SECTIONS AND PASS THIS FOR LATER SHIFTS. INSPECTION OF ENERGY SPECTRA ANALYSIS DOES SUGGEST RATE AND VARIANCE OF ENERGY CHANGE...THIS QUESTION MAY TAKE UP TO ANOTHER 36+ HOURS TO CLARIFY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Sorry if already posted overnight/this morning. JB's take: The monster in the east ( 3rd this year from PHL northeast) has the strongest westward reflection of the snow events recently. I am bringing this up because with ridging in europe and the La Nina now fighting to take control of the US weather pattern another attempt at running a storm up west of the mountains is on the way. In fact if all the energy in the southwest were to come out, next weeks storm would resemble more closely the midwest monster in mid December than the east coast storms we have seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Sorry if already posted overnight/this morning. JB's take: The monster in the east ( 3rd this year from PHL northeast) has the strongest westward reflection of the snow events recently. I am bringing this up because with ridging in europe and the La Nina now fighting to take control of the US weather pattern another attempt at running a storm up west of the mountains is on the way. In fact if all the energy in the southwest were to come out, next weeks storm would resemble more closely the midwest monster in mid December than the east coast storms we have seen. and at the end of that same paragraph there's this: The more phased this is the more its going to cut. And while I expect a secondary and a very sloppy storm, this one looks like its going to try to drive a primary up to near Pittsburgh before the second system takes over. So easterners may have a changeover that matters this time.. while ice may be as big a problem as snow in the east. lol...ole jb covering all his bases Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 So how about that 6z GFS? Just an ordinary 8-10" hit of snow here with JLN, STL, S IL, etc getting buried. Regardless, nice to see some previously "amped" solutions jump back on board last night. Long ways to go still, but needless to say good things happened for a lot folks in this forum. Major snowstorm, major ice storm, or rain. :-\ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 and at the end of that same paragraph there's this: The more phased this is the more its going to cut. And while I expect a secondary and a very sloppy storm, this one looks like its going to try to drive a primary up to near Pittsburgh before the second system takes over. So easterners may have a changeover that matters this time.. while ice may be as big a problem as snow in the east. lol...ole jb covering all his bases He could have just written this, "There is the potential for a large storm in the Continental US next week." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 hmmm, new wrinkle? Wonder what the results would be of the northern feature closing off that quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 hmmm, new wrinkle? Wonder what the results would be of the northern feature closing off that quickly A weaker, more SW to NE type of system it would appear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Major snowstorm, major ice storm, or rain. :-\ Pretty much sums it up. I told Hoosier via PM a couple of days ago that I had resigned myself to the possibility of a slop storm for here. But that's the nature of the beast. Still, we're too far out for anyone to celebrate or jump off any bridges. Maintaining the same look and a storm in the neighborhood are what's sorta important right now. IF a storm is apparent, the details will sort themselves out eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Might as well enjoy looking at this while it lasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 A weaker, more SW to NE type of system it would appear that's was my thinking as well. Closed low means slower and more likely the sw energy outruns the northern branch??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Might as well enjoy looking at this while it lasts yea there's a lot of eyecandy to find for anyone from the MW to the OV out there. As of right now it's best use would be as a desktop background Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 that's was my thinking as well. Closed low means slower and more likely the sw energy outruns the northern branch??? Yeah wouldn't be nearly as strong, but a slower and overrunning type event. It would most likely be good for our backyards, but not necessarily those farther North. Probably a similar track to the DGEX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Yeah wouldn't be nearly as strong, but a slower and overrunning type event. It would most likely be good for our backyards, but not necessarily those farther North. Probably a similar track to the DGEX. I'm OK with the DGEX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I'm OK with the DGEX It will do... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 no major surprises from the 12z NAM through 60, looks somewhere between its 0z and 6z solutions. would probably be north of the GFS still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Looks like a little more interaction on the 12z NAM at 78 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Looks like a little more interaction on the 12z NAM at 78 hrs Yeah it plays ball a little more with the northern vort. The southern piece is very much like the GFS, so maybe we're zoning in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 really drops a piece far south off San Diego. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 really drops a piece far south off San Diego. Definitely a little stronger then past couple runs of the GFS with the Northern branch as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 apologizes if it was already posted, here's the ILX afd from this morning: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL558 AM CST FRI JAN 28 2011 LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAYEXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS COMPLICATED...AS MODELS CONTINUE TOSTRUGGLE WITH PHASING ISSUES. 00Z 28 JAN RUN OF BOTH THE GFS ANDECMWF INDICATE A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERNPACIFIC THIS WEEKEND...WITH AN UPPER LOW UNDERCUTTING A HIGH-AMPLITUDERIDGE JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. PROBLEMS ARISEWHEN NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY RIDING UP AND OVER THE RIDGE TRIES TOPHASE WITH THE UPPER LOW AS IT MEANDERS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THESOUTHERN ROCKIES. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT OVER THE PASTSEVERAL DAYS...SO EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING DECENTAGREEMENT...AM STILL QUITE SKEPTICAL. BOTH GFS/ECMWF PHASE THE TWOSYSTEMS INTO ONE DEEP TROUGH ON MONDAY...WITH A PIECE OF ENERGYTHEN EJECTING E/NE TOWARD THE MIDWEST BY TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...SURFACELOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THEN TRACKSNORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS. EXACT TRACK OF THELOW VARIES SOMEWHAT...WITH THE ECMWF BEING DEEPER AND FURTHERNORTH. GIVEN SLOW SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE MAIN BAROCLINICZONE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WOULD TEND TO FAVOR THEMORE NORTHERN ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS WOULD SPREAD PRECIP INTO THEAREA BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. IF CURRENT TRACK HOLDSFIRM...MUCH OF THE PRECIP WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...HOWEVERTHE POTENTIAL DEFINITELY EXISTS FOR MIXED PRECIP OR EVEN RAINACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA IF LOW COMES FAR ENOUGH NORTH. Source Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Definitely a little stronger then past couple runs of the GFS with the Northern branch as well. I think a trend to watch will be for a real partial ejection at best of the energy out of the southwest, which would lower the height fields and lead to a much more southern solution. I don't think the NAM extrapolated would be all that far north either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 So nice to see a large trough with strong vorts out west again. Been a LONG time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Drum Roll Please............... Henry M's map is out, lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 So nice to see a large trough with strong vorts out west again. Been a LONG time! Yes it has! I'm gonna be a good sport no matter where the heaviest snow sets up. Next few days will be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Drum Roll Please............... Henry M's map is out, lmao To me that is the first nail that has been driven into the coffin for my neck of the woods. Thanks Henry!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Not going to lie, I am intrigued by the idea of a second wave ejecting out later next week and a second storm developing, even if it does impact areas farther East. We will see, but I wouldn't rule this scenario out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 GFS may be having the smallest run to run swings but it has come a long way. I give it no more than 3 runs before it starts introducing mixing concerns here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 GFS may be having the smallest run to run swings but it has come a long way. I give it no more than 3 runs before it starts introducing mixing concerns here. I think you're safe. Early guess, 12z GFS comes south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.