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End of January/early February storm potential part 2


Hoosier

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Basically still have a wide variety of solutions, but with the trends its safe to say, odds are this thing will be NW. GFS looks good for us OV people, other runs, not so much. I suspect the gfs will trend towards the euro, and the euro will be weaker than what it showed tonight.. see ya at 12z people.

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This one is looking like she could be quite a winner for a lot of folks... but could be a zone, from the looks of things, of major icing. Lots of time still to go watching this one. I'm very interested in watching what the cold air over Hudson bay does and how that plays out with the jet and potential phasing issues. I can't help but remember the trend most of this Winter has been to send the decent storms hard left (the first big one up in MN/WI) where a lot of us got rain, or far to the South and then up the East Coast. I figured the MW would be due for a major storm towards the end of January before another period of pretty cold weather and I was a day or two off perhaps. But needless to say this thing is looking good for someone in the Eastern half of the nation to get nailed again. I don't buy into the huge QPF numbers quite yet...more times than not in snow situations those #'s don't pan out. Cut them by 1/3 or 1/4 and that would be a more realistic solution. Seen models over estimate QPF to many times rather than underestimate. So we'll see over the weekend with new data coming in every day. Going to be a fun weekend. Everyone keep the snowblowers, shovels, and ice scrapers handy...heck some parts of the Southern Midwest may need hip waders if this thing tracks far enough North and produces a heavy rain over areas with a decent snow pack. I'm cautiously optimistic on this one.

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BTW I will try and post again tomorrow evening after I've had a chance to digest all the data and collect my thoughts and feelings on this. Try and see everyone around say 10pm or there abouts. I'll keep logged into the thread so I don't lose my place. I can just see this thing going in so many different directions and making a lot of us very happy or very upset. Not a good feel yet, but again cautiously optimistic.

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BTW I will try and post again tomorrow evening after I've had a chance to digest all the data and collect my thoughts and feelings on this. Try and see everyone around say 10pm or there abouts. I'll keep logged into the thread so I don't lose my place. I can just see this thing going in so many different directions and making a lot of us very happy or very upset. Not a good feel yet, but again cautiously optimistic.

Nice to see you post! Luckily Im a weather enthusiast no matter the situation. If I get a foot of windblown snow or a 990mb low sitting over my head with 50 degree temps and dry slots, I enjoy it one way or the other. In this hobby you cant be narrow-minded (always wanting a major snow or severe weather outbreak) It will drive you nuts and thats why there are quite a few angry and unpleasent ppl/post on this board. Thats why Im not a huge poster, Im usually out enjoying the weather rather than complaining about it. But thats my opinion...BTW I hope this one can spread the wealth! Your thoughts are always welcome and much appreciated Justin.

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IWX:

LONG TERM

SUN THROUGH THURSDAY

VERY ACTIVE NORTHERN PAC FLOW WILL OFFER SEVERAL CHANCES OF SNOW

INTO THE GREAT LAKES AS BLOCKED FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC

BREAKS DOWN. EASTERN PAC RIDGING TYPICAL OF A STRONG LA NINA

INFLUENCE WILL SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING AND

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW...WITH A VERY STRONG SYSTEM EXPECTED TO EJECT

OUT OF THE SW CONUS INTO THE MID CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE

POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM IN THE REGION. ANALOGS TO THE FORECAST

HEIGHT PATTERN SUPPORT A POTENT NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER HEIGHT

PATTERN VERY SUPPORTIVE TO DEEP CYCLOGENESIS. FORECAST MODELS ARE

HAVING MAJOR DIFFICULTY PER UPPER JET DETAILS WITH HUGE RUN-RUN

DIFFERENCES PER SFC SYSTEM TRACK/TIMING/AND INTENSITY...WITH THE

GEM/DGEX BEING THE MOST CONSISTENT IN THIS DEPARTMENT. LATER PORTION

OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLY DICTATED BY THE DEGREE OF

NORTHERN STREAM PHASING...WITH CAA INTENSITY BEING THE MOST

AFFECTED. IF A LONG WAVE PHASED TROUGH DOES MATERIALIZE...MUCH

COLDER CONDITIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED INTO THE REGION...A SOLUTION

THAT IS FAVORED BY THE GEM AND GFS. DIFFICULTY ALSO ARISES WHEN

TRYING TO DETERMINE THE FLOW TENDENCY BY LATE NEXT WEEK WITH MOST

MODELS OPTING FOR A TREND TO HIGHLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW...SHIFTING THE

BULK OF THE ARCTIC AIR EAST. THE MEAN GEFS IS BIASED WEST WITH UPPER

TROUGH PLACEMENT IN THIS PERIOD...WITH COLDER AIR PROGGED OVER THE

REGION. PREFERENCE IS TOWARD A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW TENDENCY GIVEN

THE NORM THIS SEASON. THIS WOULD SUPPORT ONLY A GLANCING INFLUENCE

OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS. PREFERENCE WAS TO TOWARD A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED

HEIGHT PATTERN MID WEEK WHICH IS CLOSE TO A GEM/GFS/DGEX BLEND. DID

ADJUST TEMPS AND WEATHER FOR THESE CONCERNS.

SUN-TUE...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THIS PERIOD AS GENERALLY WEAK FAST

MOVING IMPULSES ARE PROGGED GIVEN WITH NEAR NEUTRAL TEMP ADV. HAVE

RETAINED LOW CHANCE POPS/WX.

TUE NIGHT-THUR....ADJUSTED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED

HEIGHT PATTERN WITH A DEEP SFC CYCLONE EXPECTED IN THE MID CONUS.

THIS SUPPORTS ADDITION/INCREASE IN POP NUMBERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE

TUE NIGHT PERIOD WHERE MODEL SIGNALS OVERLAP GREATEST /EVEN THOUGH

SYSTEM TIMING IS HIGHLY VARIABLE AMONG INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS/. HAVE

ADJUSTED TEMPS TO REFLECT A WEAK WARMING TREND TUE-WED...WITH COOLER

THERMAL FIELDS EXPECTED BY THUR. AS STATED ABOVE...GIVEN CONCERNS FOR

A PROGRESSIVE TENDENCY TO THE FLOW...HAVE OPTED FOR CONSERVATIVE

TEMP NUMBERS ATTM. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SIG SNOW ACCUMS...AND

IF JET INTENSITY IS MUCH MORE ROBUST AND CYCLONICALLY CURVED /WHICH

IS ENTIRELY PLAUSIBLE/ THE REGION WOULD SEE MIXED PRECIP WITH A

POTENTIAL CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN. THE BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE THE

INTENSITY OF AN ADVECTING SFC RIDGE OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AS

THIS SYSTEM WILL HIGHLY IMPACT THE LOCATION OF THE ASSOCIATED LL

BAROCLINIC ZONE FAVORED FOR CYCLOGENESIS AS WELL AS MID AND UPPER

FLOW DETAILS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR TRENDS.

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06 gfs took a step towards the euro

42bb4ab06891016c802f266f43ba3cfa.gif

Might end up being a Indy to Detroit storm track with decent WAA ahead of system and deformation band and Lake ehancement across N.IL/S.WI. 18-24hr period of snow. Altantic/Gulf Moisture involved equals 99 blizzard. Watch this go on a strong neg tilt.

WGN 9 Chicago said 2-4 on Tuesday and potentially more on Wednesday additional snow. Bears watching.

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Just getting caught up. As for those surprised by wild changes needs to realize just how the minor differences with the evolution of the Pac players early in the runs translated to major changes down the road. In other words, things could shift back south in a heartbeat. 6z NAM looka like it would be south of 0z, with the northern piece further east. We also saw just how far NW it can go even without a full ejection, which should give you an idea of tha massive range in possible tracks right now.

EDIT: now i have to wait for all you weenie who stayed up all night to chat with me :(

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Just getting caught up. As for those surprised by wild changes needs to realize just how the minor differences with the evolution of the Pac players early in the runs translated to major changes down the road. In other words, things could shift back south in a heartbeat. 6z NAM looka like it would be south of 0z, with the northern piece further east. We also saw just how far NW it can go even without a full ejection, which should give you an idea of tha massive range in possible tracks right now.

EDIT: now i have to wait for all you weenie who stayed up all night to chat with me :(

I'm here, my new plan during winter storms (so I get some sleep) is to stay up for the 00z GFS until about 11:30P, then sleep and get back up at 5A,. Seems to be working and I'm at least getting a few solid hours of sleep too ;)

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5 hours of sleep and I barely made it into work. Morning guys.

Grr

THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST

BY WEDNESDAY ACCORDING TO THE GFS...WHICH HAS TRENDED THE NORTHERN

EDGE OF THE SNOW FURTHER NORTH OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...BRINGING IT

TO OUR FAR SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA.

THE EURO HAS HAD A FEW RUNS WHERE THE LONGWAVE PATTERN IS AMPLIFIED

ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE LOW TO MOVE MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND BRING HEAVIER

SNOW WELL INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. HAVE DISCOUNTED THIS MORE AMPLIFIED

SOLUTION BUT WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO WATCH FUTURE TRENDS TO SEE IF

LOWER MICHIGAN WILL FINALLY HAVE A SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SNOW EVENT.

DTX

MODELS LOOK MORE IN LINE WITH A PATTERN SHIFT OCCURRING

TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. POLAR VORTEX OVER HUDSON BAY

LOOKS TO LIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTHWARD TO PULL MICHIGAN OUT OF THE

NORTHWEST FLOW/CLIPPER PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN STUCK IN MOST OF THE

WINTER.SOUTHWEST FLOW THEN LOOKS TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF DEEP

UPPER TROUGHING THAT DIGS INTO THE U.S. SOUTHWEST...WITH SURFACE LOW

PRESSURE POTENTIALLY TRACKING UP INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY

TOWARDS MIDWEEK AS THE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD.

THIS IS A CLASSIC WINTER STORM SET-UP FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN

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Just getting caught up. As for those surprised by wild changes needs to realize just how the minor differences with the evolution of the Pac players early in the runs translated to major changes down the road. In other words, things could shift back south in a heartbeat. 6z NAM looka like it would be south of 0z, with the northern piece further east. We also saw just how far NW it can go even without a full ejection, which should give you an idea of tha massive range in possible tracks right now.

EDIT: now i have to wait for all you weenie who stayed up all night to chat with me :(

Its probably unlikley but is it safe to say if this thing fully phases and earlier it could very well track over chicago even with the PV to the north?

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Its probably unlikley but is it safe to say if this thing fully phases and earlier it could very well track over chicago even with the PV to the north?

We have a decent safety net, it would take a pretty special phase and a full ejection from the southwest to realize that potential. I don't see it happening. Possible sure, but it would be a once in a lifetime storm for someone.

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We have a decent safety net, it would take a pretty special phase and a full ejection from the southwest to realize that potential. I don't see it happening. Possible sure, but it would be a once in a lifetime storm for someone.

Yea it looks good. Just north of the heavy precip, but I think its good to not be in the sweet spot right now. Of course a little skeptical that it bombs too quick (assuming it phases which isn't even known yet) and falls apart as it heads into the colder drier air up here. One thing is for sure .5 of precip will do alot more up here than it will further south where 2 inch plus may fall. Always forget to remember ratios and they should be very good up here.

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Yea it looks good. Just north of the heavy precip, but I think its good to not be in the sweet spot right now. Of course a little skeptical that it bombs too quick (assuming it phases which isn't even known yet) and falls apart as it heads into the colder drier air up here. One thing is for sure .5 of precip will do alot more up here than it will further south where 2 inch plus may fall. Always forget to remember ratios and they should be very good up here.

Too early for ratio and qpf talk. Lets stay focused on the trends out west and worry about that business later.

Personally I will be surprised if models are as far west with the northern vort at 12z.

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So how about that 6z GFS? Just an ordinary 8-10" hit of snow here with JLN, STL, S IL, etc getting buried. :lol:

Regardless, nice to see some previously "amped" solutions jump back on board last night. Long ways to go still, but needless to say good things happened for a lot folks in this forum.

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Gotta really like the GFS right now and since the upgrade have been very impressed with it this winter. The ECMWF seems clueless to the the storms lower level mass fields while the GFS locks onto it and also with the deep punch of arctic air history would suggest this favors a more southern track. Sure seems like someone is gonna get a good storm out of this at this juncture. Kinda looks like a quick hit of arctic air with a more W to E spill rather than a slower moving N to S. Kinda like the last surge where the core misses the upper midwest and focuses more out east.

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