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End of January/early February storm potential part 2


Hoosier

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did you notice this trend on tonights modeling.......jseemed to me the trend of leaving a lot of energy lagging behind....could be wrong as i didnt look all that closely

Yeah it is real tough to determine--rarely ever does it pan out best case where the entire trough ejects into the plains. Typically the push of cold air in the lower levels will drive decent height falls on the back end of the trough resulting in the strung out back-edge trough--but I thought the way the Euro looked at 96 it may all come into the plains. That would have been a true bomb.

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Occlusion potential? It just loses itself and treks east? I think it is off its rocker with that solution but as some have said anything east of OKC and north of Brazil has a shot at getting smashed. Who knows? I expected a north cut but literally a 75º change in track from OTS to IL then east to Ohio....not very congruent if you ask me.

Josh

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Had to figure if the GFS was half ass right the Euro would be all over it and possibly come in hotter. Euro will hardly ever be a step behind the GFS... Tight cutoff to the north CMC like for $man. ****s the bed but not after crushing some folks.. Iowa gets pwned.

I understand given how sharply it turns eastward after going north that the precip may not be long lived, but how does Iowa get crushed and Southern Wisconsin not get in on the best action?

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Yeah it is real tough to determine--rarely ever does it pan out best case where the entire trough ejects into the plains. Typically the push of cold air in the lower levels will drive decent height falls on the back end of the trough resulting in the strung out back-edge trough--but I thought the way the Euro looked at 96 it may all come into the plains. That would have been a true bomb.

looking at 96 thats what i thought too

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