buckeye Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Grr MODEL AGREEMENT HAS MARKEDLY IMPROVED TONIGHT AS THE 00Z EURO HAS FINALLY GIVEN UP ON THE IDEA OF A SHARP WESTERN CONUS TROUGH AND SOUTHEAST RIDGE DEVELOPING NEXT WEEK AND NO LONGER TAKES A SFC LOW ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. SO THE WINTER STORM IT WAS SHOWING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK IS NOW SHUNTED FAR SOUTH IN A MORE ZONAL FLOW...AS THE GFS HAS BEEN SHOWING THE PAST FEW DAYS. ALTHOUGH THIS IMPLIES LESS SNOW...IT ALSO IMPLIES MORE COLD AS ARCTIC AIR DOMINATES THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH 850MB TEMPS SHOWN BY BOTH MODELS TO BE IN THE MINUS 15 TO 20C RANGE BY TUESDAY. Story of the winter, cold domination. odd to see GRR throw in the towel like that based on one euro run They're usually fairly bullish on potential and exactly what are they referring to when they say 'marked improvement in model agreement'? really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Looks like the NAM has good phasing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Looks like the NAM has good phasing? IMO the NAM isn't trending in a good direction from 0z, unless you live off I95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Seems like there were some minor meltdowns last night. It’s rough to see some of this seasons demons rise back up but that’s how it goes sometimes, we've struggled all winter to amplify storms coming out of the southwest and it's looking more and more like we'll be able to add this one to the list of threats bullied into submition (Speaking more of the western lakes people here, OH valley with better odds). A low probability thread the needed situation remains, but it is what it is, low probability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 IMO the NAM isn't trending in a good direction from 0z, unless you live off I95. nam looks like it would yield a better solution then the euro 00z. You can see the euro holding back the energy while the nam is bringing everything out. Can't imagine later nam panels would be suppressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 nam looks like it would yield a better solution then the euro 00z. You can see the euro holding back the energy while the nam is bringing everything out. Can't imagine later nam panels would be suppressed No you're right, it would be better than the 0z euro, and way better than the GFS, it just didn't look as wicked at the 0z NAM was setting up to be, which IMO is the key because the NAM is making a habit this season of being too far north and amplified in it's later periods, so i'm pretty much discounting it. Good stuff though Buckeye. Hopefully we can keep this thread on track and not turn it into a wine and cheese fest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 A little sampling from Skilling's blog on this potential storm: "It's hard to know with certainty which of these forecast approaches is the right one. But, the 240 mph jet stream winds moving into the eastern Pacific late Wednesday---extraordinarily strong winds which have been known in the past to drive impressive storm development as they proceed into the center of the country" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 A little sampling from Skilling's blog on this potential storm: "It's hard to know with certainty which of these forecast approaches is the right one. But, the 240 mph jet stream winds moving into the eastern Pacific late Wednesday---extraordinarily strong winds which have been known in the past to drive impressive storm development as they proceed into the center of the country" I'm not really following Tom here and could be way off. But it looks to me like by the time our vort is puttering into the southwest the jet support at 200mb and 300mb is pretty weak sauce. The better jet energy lags behind well into the Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Height field on the 9z SREF mean not looking too hot. The more i look around, i think we do see a decent storm blow up, but like Baro alluded to a day or two ago, it will be a bit later and probably a bit too far east for some of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I figure the models will flip flop again, but it's still not going to mean much the end result will be the same: Another EC storm. The trend has been against us this season, and that appears to be the way it is going to stay, so, might as well live with it and look forward to warmer weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 looks like the weaker storm will send impulsing giving us periods of light snow here for the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I figure the models will flip flop again, but it's still not going to mean much the end result will be the same: Another EC storm. The trend has been against us this season, and that appears to be the way it is going to stay, so, might as well live with it and look forward to warmer weather. I think a track along the apps is just as if not more likely than an EC storm at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 looks like the weaker storm will send impulsing giving us periods of light snow here for the week. I still think we see a good system come of all of this, probably developing pretty far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I don't have a link to the euro ensembles, so I was curious to what they showed last night. Any of them look like the past runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I don't have a link to the euro ensembles, so I was curious to what they showed last night. Any of them look like the past runs? A quick look at the mean says doubtful. If you want to look on the brightside, the major problem is something the Euro has been known to struggle with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 A quick look at the mean says doubtful. If you want to look on the brightside, the major problem is something the Euro has been known to struggle with. w/e happened to strong waves coming ashore and not having to rely on other energies to become a respectable storm. This pacific pattern doesn't yield many storms that stay together? Kinda confused/curious why we haven't seen any . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 It wouldn't surprise me one bit to see the euro go back to a big storm at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 It wouldn't surprise me one bit to see the euro go back to a big storm at 12z I don’t know, we’re about to get into it’s better range and it's not like the no early phase solution has no support. FWIW the 12z GFS is not going to even come close in the phase department. GFS NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 It wouldn't surprise me one bit to see the euro go back to a big storm at 12z It wouldn't really surprise me either, but it is amazing how much the mood of this forum has changed over the course of 12 hours. During the day yesterday, most of the models favored our area for a major storm; now, most of the models favor a coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 w/e happened to strong waves coming ashore and not having to rely on other energies to become a respectable storm. This pacific pattern doesn't yield many storms that stay together? Kinda confused/curious why we haven't seen any . northern vorts keep out pacing any good pac storm, dumping down cold air, shutting off any return flow and suppressing the action south and east. pretty much what the GFS is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 It wouldn't really surprise me either, but it is amazing how much the mood of this forum has changed over the course of 12 hours. During the day yesterday, most of the models favored our area for a major storm; now, most of the models favor a coastal. Not really most, we had one op run and a couple of its ensembles. The GFS has always been no (and just took another step back) and the GGEM trended away from a storm yesterday at 12z. New 12z GFS misses the phase by a wide shot and sends the orphan vort to die in the desert, very much like the 0z Euro. At this point I think we have pretty decent model agreement, with only the NAM keeping hope alive, but it has a history this winter that leads me to discount it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Hour 90 on the gfs a storm tries to get together but it just keeps drifting south. Never seen this occur as many times as it has this year. The potential all looks good in the middle of the country then it gets shunted ESE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 It wouldn't really surprise me either, but it is amazing how much the mood of this forum has changed over the course of 12 hours. During the day yesterday, most of the models favored our area for a major storm; now, most of the models favor a coastal. Welcome to the Ohio party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Not really most, we had one op run and a couple of its ensembles. The GFS has always been no (and just took another step back) and the GGEM trended away from a storm yesterday at 12z. New 12z GFS misses the phase by a wide shot and sends the orphan vort to die in the desert, very much like the 0z Euro. At this point I think we have pretty decent model agreement, with only the NAM keeping hope alive, but it has a history this winter that leads me to discount it. Wasn't it basically all the models except the GFS and maybe the Canadian? I should've said 24 hours ago, before the GGEM shifted south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Hour 90 on the gfs a storm tries to get together but it just keeps drifting south. Never seen this occur as many times as it has this year. The potential all looks good in the middle of the country then it gets shunted ESE. The potential is gone well before hour 90. Check out the 500mb maps on the GFS and NAM at initialization hr 0 and hr48, that's where the storm is made, you can clearly see the differences in strength and how each evolves their travel. If the Pac storm doesn't phase with the northern piece piece like the GFS and Euro are showing, the pacific vort will be shunted into the southwest while the northern piece dumps the cold air into the plains leading to the suppression we've seen all summer and this will not allow the southern piece to amplify. Given the troubles of the NAM at this range and the problems Pac waves have had this year, i'm leaning on no phase, at least no one early enough for us. Hopefully the NAM can pull the coup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 The GFS ends up further NW in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 SNE weenies are going to need all summer to recover.. They gotta be loving the looks of the GFS. At least some of our crew looks to get some decent snow out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 The coast gets rocked again on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 SNE weenies are going to need all summer to recover.. They gotta be loving the looks of the GFS. At least some of our crew looks to get some decent snow out of it. weenie suicide alert if the gfs verifies for them again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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