patrick7032 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 LOL. yea if the gfs barely phased, I can only imagine what the NAM or a more phased solution would look like. I would say maybe a MSp GB Iowa special. My first guess would be if the Euro and CMC show similar with tonight's run lets go with a Shreveport to Bowling Green, KY to Erie track.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioValleyWx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 KDAY WED 06Z 02-FEB -6.8 -1.8 1025 91 97 0.02 557 537 WED 12Z 02-FEB -7.6 -1.3 1016 98 100 0.45 553 540 WED 18Z 02-FEB -6.5 -3.3 1010 97 99 0.44 544 536 THU 00Z 03-FEB -9.6 -9.5 1019 98 92 0.03 540 525 It starts to crash just in time but too damn close this far out for confidence. As Buckeye said I would like it a touch south being at this hour. If this thing would actually phase....conceivable could double the amounts so 1.88". Far stretch but get the surface low east and drill in the cold and have ratios jump through the roof, the last .50 could be a 15 to 1 jumping to 25 to 1 ratio. Josh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 lets not mention that lol I would have to use Alek's suicide bin At least he is cheap (rates). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 KDAY WED 06Z 02-FEB -6.8 -1.8 1025 91 97 0.02 557 537 WED 12Z 02-FEB -7.6 -1.3 1016 98 100 0.45 553 540 WED 18Z 02-FEB -6.5 -3.3 1010 97 99 0.44 544 536 THU 00Z 03-FEB -9.6 -9.5 1019 98 92 0.03 540 525 It starts to crash just in time but too damn close this far out for confidence. As Buckeye said I would like it a touch south being at this hour. Josh Yeap we have little if no breathing room on the northward movement... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 My first guess would be if the Euro and CMC show similar with tonight's run lets go with a Shreveport to Bowling Green, KY to Erie track.... Like the way you think. Also looks like a transfer which I would prefer not to see but long ways obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I feel kind of like this is a repeat with last system, all perfect solution, we all get excited 24 hours later 2 people in here.. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 GGEM out through 60. Looks like both streams are playing ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 My first guess would be if the Euro and CMC show similar with tonight's run lets go with a Shreveport to Bowling Green, KY to Erie track.... +10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 lets not mention that lol I would have to use Alek's suicide bin Don't you have to buy Alek a drink now that the GFS came north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 My first guess would be if the Euro and CMC show similar with tonight's run lets go with a Shreveport to Bowling Green, KY to Erie track.... Thats a potent track for us....brings up a lot of moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Like the way you think Yeah but fired that guess way early since this would be the first run that most of the models would be in agreement....and I really want to see what that vort in the Pacific the models missed does before I fire up the "party" grill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I think that'd be tough PV over Baffin Island keeps confluence over the Lakes/suppresses the SE ridge. It'd probably be pretty good for us extrapolated, unless the PV just rolled east quickly. Where did that pv come from? Where has it been this month? IS it the block or just a low south of the block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 KDAY WED 06Z 02-FEB -6.8 -1.8 1025 91 97 0.02 557 537 WED 12Z 02-FEB -7.6 -1.3 1016 98 100 0.45 553 540 WED 18Z 02-FEB -6.5 -3.3 1010 97 99 0.44 544 536 THU 00Z 03-FEB -9.6 -9.5 1019 98 92 0.03 540 525 It starts to crash just in time but too damn close this far out for confidence. As Buckeye said I would like it a touch south being at this hour. If this thing would actually phase....conceivable could double the amounts so 1.88". Far stretch but get the surface low east and drill in the cold and have ratios jump through the roof, the last .50 could be a 15 to 1 jumping to 25 to 1 ratio. Josh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 im drunk!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioValleyWx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I feel kind of like this is a repeat with last system, all perfect solution, we all get excited 24 hours later 2 people in here.. LOL Exactly. I like it but I know better then to get excited right now. Come Tuesday night then I might crack a smile. Josh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Don't you have to buy Alek a drink now that the GFS came north has to be in May after I turn 21 but then I will, right before we get rick rolled by a 11pm MCS special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 This is ridiculous....MI scammed again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 GGEM out through 60. Looks like both streams are playing ball. Yup, that looks like it's going to be big down the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 OMA .31 JLN .91 when bulk falls but shows more stretched over 5 days. PAH .83 STL 1.03 PIA .48 DTW .31 IND .94 LAF .71 DAY .94 CMH .91 CLE .65 CVG .85 LEX .68 MKC .95 PIT .79 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 This is ridiculous....MI scammed again! GFS usually trends NW with time....what it shows now is good considering this....but again just one model still in wait and see mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Where did that pv come from? Where has it been this month? IS it the block or just a low south of the block. "Blocking" usually refers to ridging over Greenland, which there is none of per the 0z NAM at 84. PV is something separate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I would imagine if the GFS is half ass correct the Euro would come in the same or hotter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 This is ridiculous....MI scammed again! While not quite ideal for Michigan yet (although Monroe County gets a nice hit), there's no way you can deny this was a big improvement for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 It's nice to at least see these models showing a cutter type. The 0z GFS was huge improvement, and something that was important. I want at least to see these models showing a cutter (track isn't that important right now) Seeing another east coast storm would suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Just not sure if I understand things completely, but judging by the qpf maps a few posts back, if this can come just a tad farther north, we could get a decent snow out of this. Of course, that is if this a trend, and not just a blip. The fact that the models look encouraging at this point has piqued my interest... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 This is ridiculous....MI scammed again! Not singling you out but enough with these types of comments. We're still 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 ggem could get ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 This is ridiculous....MI scammed again! 100+ hrs to go. Plenty of time for an even worse screwing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 ggem could get ugly in a congrat dallas kinda way or in a congrats madison kinda way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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