patrick7032 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I was thinking differently in that the cyclone would mature and slow down owing to faster height falls and a faster occlusion as therefore becomes a passive PV max in the flow. IWX was thinking along the same lines. That is what I was thinking....if you deepen the trough/ridge amplitude it would dynamically force the system to slow down leading to as you stated faster height falls....a less positive tilted system....and less progressive track/speed....with the increased dynamics if it could go neutral tilt maybe we could even get some CSI....but now I am dreaming.... We were thinking the same just worded differently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 The GFS is definitely farther W with the northern stream. Interested to see how it interacts with the stronger cyclone on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 GFS is trying, not sure if it will be fully there though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 That is what I was thinking....if you deepen the trough/ridge amplitude it would dynamically force the system to slow down leading to as you stated faster height falls....a less positive tilted system....and less progressive track/speed....with the increased dynamics if it could go neutral tilt maybe we could even get some CSI....but now I am dreaming.... We were thinking the same just worded differently. Haha ok--I see your point--I misread it the first time. It happens a lot with me since I am usually reading multiple threads at a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 GFS is trying, not sure if it will be fully there though. Yep looks like it will barely miss.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 By hour 54 there is already a difference, GFS VS NAM.. GFS is much more quicker with the cold air sinking south.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 hour 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 By hour 54 there is already a difference, GFS VS NAM.. GFS is much more quicker with the cold air sinking south.. I noticed that too....and the GFS has a model bias of being too deep/fast with polar highs that strong. The strength is okay but we need it to stay further NW some or slow down in later runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 hour 72 Could you elaborate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 It's an improvement but not quite there. Blip or trend, we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 hour 72 I don't see a problem so far other than its weaker with northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 It's trying so hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Its def an improvement, atleast we didn't hand the ball off and get a loss of 3 yards. got hit at the line and gained 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 This might be the run that activates AmericanWX's Defcom 1 Storm Mode Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Definitely some interaction going on at 90.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 I don't see a problem so far other than its weaker with northern stream. Agreed. The 500 vort is still organized and in the southwest. This energy will force the low that we want to see where it tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Much, much better 18z GFS 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Huge Ok. snow storm on this run. HR 111: Sub 1012 low in S. TX. OK gets at least .5-.75 qpf of all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 signifiicant changes out west lends itself to this run ending up further north than any we've seen yet out of the GFS (still may or may not be enough) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 KS/MO about to get pounded in future runs as well. HR 117: LT-MOD precip in KS. MOD-HVY precip in N.OK/S.KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 This might be the run that activates AmericanWX's Defcom 1 Storm Mode lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Congrats Amarillo, ICT and KC thus far. 1008mb SLP in E. Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 HR 120: 1008 low in E. TX. MOD-HVY precip in W. MO. LT-MOD precip in E. MO and MOD-HVY precip in KS as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 All of MO and STL gets pounded. HR 126: LOW in MS. MOD-HVY precip in STL and all of MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 GFS is going to crush ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 pretty good step in the right direction out to 102hr.. its really trying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 HR 132 has a 1008 low in S. KY. What a change. Indiana gets hit pretty good as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Money we probably don't need play by play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 All of MO and STL gets pounded. HR 126: LOW in MS. MOD-HVY precip in STL and all of MO. Friv gets blasted! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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