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End of January/early February storm potential part 2


Hoosier

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I was just browsing the northeast storm thread......lots of jan '96 talk and how perfect this set up is for a major coastal....lol.

They always end up being right in some form, this last storm I would have never guessed that places would receive 20" of snowfall..Oh well..

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I was just browsing the northeast storm thread......lots of jan '96 talk and how perfect this set up is for a major coastal....lol.

Buckeye every storm to them is a major (insert superstorm name) to them. I don't even know why you waste your time over there.

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The 0Z Pacific analysis is in with obs compared to the 18Z GFS forecast. The cyclone in question is undergoing cyclogenesis--and it does seem to be a tad bit under-modeled based on some of the surface buoy pressure values--perhaps 1-3 hpa in spots. Doesn't mean a ton yet--but if Patrick7032's thoughts are right--it may be too weak thus far.

post-999-0-28355000-1296185178.gif

Based on the data and imagery it definitely seems that way. If it merges with that lead vort and strengthens it I think we will continue to see the ridge/trough amplitude in the model data continue to incrementally increase with each run.

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Based on the data and imagery it definitely seems that way. If it merges with that lead vort and strengthens it I think we will continue to see the ridge/trough amplitude in the model data continue to incrementally increase with each run.

I was thinking differently in that the cyclone would mature and slow down owing to faster height falls and a faster occlusion as therefore becomes a passive PV max in the flow. IWX was thinking along the same lines.

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They are just watching threats like we are here. I have seen a lot of folks comparing this to a monster too for our region. There are some good mets in the EC region.

B_I I know its just the perpetual super blizzard of x year is always mentioned there. Maybe we are a bit more tame here, though 1999 does get thrown around alot. :P

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