End of January/early February storm potential part 2

[prinsburg_wx]

Love your graphics. Eye catching.

thanks

[A-L-E-K]

I'll bring up a point baro mentioned earlier. It's possible there's still a pretty decent event out of this even if there's not a full phase. Central/southern Plains region is looking good now with basically any solution...the big question is what happens after that.

Don't worry Hoosier, you're thread won't be a total bust

As for the idea of a decent storm even without a good phase, i'm not so sure i buy that for folks this far north (unless you have a low bar for what qualifies as decent).

[WxMidwest]

Blah I'll just wait till Sat. Night, convolution like usual. Can't wait for a switch back to -PNA (If it happens)

[baroclinic_instability]

since this is the big issue with this storm, i don't see how you can do anything but favor the GFS at this point.

Yeah I think the GFS is pretty close on the front end--and the Euro keeps trending towards it through 84 hours. Exactly how that wave passes and ejects into the plains is a bigger story--and there is a decent amount of variability there. The CMC is LOL worthy--I don't expect that to verify here.

[baroclinic_instability]

You posted charts that said the EURO had a 5 day verification of about 93 percent for H5 when it was runnign at peak recenty.

while the GFS was around .901 and the EURO was .932 or something, you showed 00z and 12z the Ukmet for a month or so around November was .918 percent on there or so.

Ah ok--the CMC verification chart. I actually only used that to point out the DWD/German model--but as I mentioned--height field scores are highly misleading. The UK would be leading the way if we only used height field verification. In reality--it is very misleading.

[Hoosier]

Don't worry Hoosier, you're thread won't be a total bust

As for the idea of a decent storm even without a good phase, i'm not so sure i buy that for folks this far north (unless you have a low bar for what qualifies as decent).

Yeah, it'd be tougher the farther north you go.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Ah ok--the CMC verification chart. I actually only used that to point out the DWD/German model--but as I mentioned--height field scores are highly misleading. The UK would be leading the way if we only used height field verification. In reality--it is very misleading.

I always wondered how it was ranked so high but sucked and it's qpf output is horrible.

it is always to dry and doesn't pick up well on mesoscale/.

what is the point of the Ukmet?

[A-L-E-K]

Yeah I think the GFS is pretty close on the front end--and the Euro keeps trending towards it through 84 hours. Exactly how that wave passes and ejects into the plains is a bigger story--and there is a decent amount of variability there. The CMC is LOL worthy--I don't expect that to verify here.

You're trying to keep hope alive but reading between the lines, i don't see how this one turns into anything of note if the GFS is event remotely right through 48hrs, the squashing action will be too much for anything that ejects. At this point it's 3rd and long with the kicker warming up. On the plus side we made it to about mid field this go around.

[Hoosier]

Incorrect. The 12z Euro trended away from the GFS abit and a rejection by the ECM ensembles. You worry to much about the pacific wave and not enough about sampling up north.

It is all a toss up right now.

lol, I think the Euro trended away from its previous run moreso than it trended away from the GFS.

[wisconsinwx]

I refuse to trust the GFS as it got the track of December's big storm totally wrong the whole way, and considering that was the strongest storm this winter for most, it is very relevant. Could they have named it GFS for a reason? Go Far South?

[baroclinic_instability]

Incorrect. The 12z Euro trended away from the GFS abit and a rejection by the ECM ensembles. You worry to much about the pacific wave and not enough about sampling up north.

It is all a toss up right now.

Post your proof/evidence please.

A direct comparison of the Euro ensemble/op forecast from 12Z today and yesterday, verifying at 72 and 96 hours, respectively:

More closed off, farther S and slower already--and the GFS keeps ticking slower too. IWX explained it well in their disco that kab posted earlier.

12Z today:

12Z yesterday:

[TheWeatherPimp]

Hour 144 - all the primary models and what they are showing

[A-L-E-K]

i'll leave this here in case anyone wants to use it later tonight, you can feel the tension rising.

[Hoosier]

You're trying to keep hope alive but reading between the lines, i don't see how this one turns into anything of note if the GFS is event remotely right through 48hrs, the squashing action will be too much for anything that ejects. At this point it's 3rd and long with the kicker warming up. On the plus side we made it to about mid field this go around.

I know the seasonal trends but one thing that is hard for me to get past right now is the typical GFS bias of domination/suppression with the northern stream. Perhaps this has been lessened since the upgrade, I don't know.

[baroclinic_instability]

You're trying to keep hope alive but reading between the lines, i don't see how this one turns into anything of note if the GFS is event remotely right through 48hrs, the squashing action will be too much for anything that ejects. At this point it's 3rd and long with the kicker warming up. On the plus side we made it to about mid field this go around.

Hope or no hope--I always remain pessimistic with a tinge of realism--and neither are playing out well here for folks in the N with the evidence and the way I interpret said evidence--everyone has and is fully entitled to their own opinion though--and I by no means claim to be right. But as I said--chaos can be a tricky beast--and this pattern is more chaotic than others. Still--looks like a big storm for the S and middle latitude states--that northern edge will be the key for folks northward.

[A-L-E-K]

So it is slower. Maybe the northern stream is slower and more amplified as well. The GFS is so progressive with it, it is embarrrasing.

dramatic much?

[dilly84]

i'll leave this here in case anyone wants to use it later tonight, you can feel the tension rising.

that's funny

[snowstormcanuck]

18z GEFS mostly crap. One or two look interesting.

[IWXwx]

Well not yet--I know how chaos can go--and a lot can change--but the GFS has been the "king" here in this +PNA pattern--and there is no denying it has handled the large scale Pacific Ridge and the cyclones that head into the US whereas the CMC has been OK (it did better with this incoming clipper and never had a big storm) and the Euro has been trash.

I was just catching up on this thread and this caught my eye. I never thought I'd hear Dr. No and trash used in the same sentence.

[baroclinic_instability]

I was just catching up on this thread and this caught my eye. I never thought I'd hear Dr. No and trash used in the same sentence.

It happens to all the models. The Euro has not been too hot lately--op and ensembles. But all the models have had their good and bad moments. It is a good reminder though that models are models--not reality--and even the Euro can stink it up bad sometimes. The forecaster should never think one model will always be right--and I think some operational forecasters rely on certain guidance too much without any particular reasoning. In reality--the GFS has really closed the door on the Euro's overall lead--and the ECMWF is no longer as "supreme" as it may have been 10 years ago when it kicked all other global models respective tails.

[Hoosier]

18z GEFS mostly crap. One or two look interesting.

[snowstormcanuck]

They're better than the OP as a whole, but most of them get sheared out beyond 144 hours. Maybe a few more are better for those adjacent to the OH river.

[Hoosier]

They're better than the OP as a whole, but most of them get sheared out beyond 144 hours. Maybe a few more are better for those adjacent to the OH river.

NOGAPS has the low in southeast TN at 132 hours. Can't argue that it's not a good model but sometimes I like using it as a check to see how probable a suppressed solution is.

[wisconsinwx]

Just for kicks, does anyone know what the general QPF amounts are for those in the Western GL for the CMC?

[prinsburg_wx]

Just for kicks, does anyone know what the general QPF amounts are for those in the Western GL for the CMC?

for MKE area hrs 132 - 144 extracted cmc qpf 0.86

[buckeye]

NOGAPS has the low in southeast TN at 132 hours. Can't argue that it's not a good model but sometimes I like using it as a check to see how probable a suppressed solution is.

i have no idea what to think on this one. Disturbing that the gfs and the euro are too far south. Actually the gfs 18z looks nice, just needs to ride about 150 miles further nw. The euro suppressing though...that's a huge red flag. Then you have the dgex, nogaps and jma that look a lot like a stronger version of the gfs and would be a major event here.

...oh yea, can't forget the ukie and ggem too and their more western bombs.

sheesh. We probably will know nothing for the next 24-48 hrs. Once solidly in the 96 hr timeframe, my money goes on whatever the euro shows.

[dilly84]

i have no idea what to think on this one. Disturbing that the gfs and the euro are too far south. Actually the gfs 18z looks nice, just needs to ride about 150 miles further nw. The euro suppressing though...that's a huge red flag. Then you have the dgex, nogaps and jma that look a lot like a stronger version of the gfs and would be a major event here.

...oh yea, can't forget the ukie and ggem too and their more western bombs.

sheesh. We probably will know nothing for the next 24-48 hrs. Once solidly in the 96 hr timeframe, my money goes on whatever the euro shows.

Crazy talk.. I haven't been impressed with the ecm of late. I said I was going with it last storm and that went well. Flip flop. Might as well wait til 12-24hrs out because if its like other recent storms, we won't have model consensus until then.

[patrick7032]

Once again--I will post this as a reminder for everyone. The Pacific is bombing hurricane force cyclones out there. The next cyclone in question is still a ripple on the jet and is projected to break off the Pacific jet here soon. Non-linear cyclogenesis lends itself to a lot of variability. Chaos rules here.

I better make sure my pole mount for my DirectTV dish is 3 feet deep instead of two with these obs/ZFP's....

PACD 271353Z 14048G63KT 5SM -RA BR OVC021 03/01 A2902 RMK AO2 PK WND 15069/1316 SNE51 SLP826 P0000 T00280011 $

ALASKA PENINSULA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COLD BAY...SAND POINT 718 AM AKST THU JAN 27 2011 ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR CHANNELED TERRAIN... A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT. STRONG WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEARS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIAN CHAIN TODAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 45 TO 60 MPH WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN...EXPECT FREQUENT GUSTS TO 80 MPH. THOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO FRIDAY...THE STRONGEST CORE OF WINDS LOOK TO END LATE TONIGHT AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS...AND MOVES FURTHER AWAY INTO THE BERING SEA. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD BE BLOWN AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND.

[buckeye]

Crazy talk.. I haven't been impressed with the ecm of late. I said I was going with it last storm and that went well. Flip flop. Might as well wait til 12-24hrs out because if its like other recent storms, we won't have model consensus until then.

euro's not perfect, and has been just as bad as most mos beyond 96 hrs. But once inside that timeframe it has done well with the overall solution, not talking about details and small waffles, but i'm talking about the bigger solution. It never waivered from the idea of a digging low making the turn and becoming an eastcoast low, with this last storm, it just had the usual strength issues and minor track waffling. The gfs was doing that silly miller B scenario til it finally got a clue.

[buckeye]

So there are 3 possibilities out there:

1.The whole thing comes out and phases into a bomb(UKMET)

2.A piece comes out and phases with the next northern impulse. This is what the 12z GFS "attempted"(and failed though some ensembles partners show what could happen) .

3.The phase misses completely and the energy is just whipped off into nothingness.

out of those 3...seasonal trend would suggest 2, (a partial phased event). Would you agree with that?