Moneyman Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Doesn't the GEM take a secondary up the coast as well, or am I wrong about that? I thought it did, not sure though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 -but I think there is a very low probability this thing tracks N like the previous Euro did. I am just going off the evidence we have. Storm cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 If there's a German model, I'm sure it's efficiently lethal. Also, it's interesting how I see the JMA get more and more recognition. I think it's passed the "joke model" threshold. IMO and many others I have read are saying the JMA handled this last storm the best. Didnt waffle nearly as much as the others did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Storm cancel Well not yet--I know how chaos can go--and a lot can change--but the GFS has been the "king" here in this +PNA pattern--and there is no denying it has handled the large scale Pacific Ridge and the cyclones that head into the US whereas the CMC has been OK (it did better with this incoming clipper and never had a big storm) and the Euro has been trash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 IMO and many others I have read are saying the JMA handled this last storm the best. Didnt waffle nearly as much as the others did. I believe the "DWD" in this verification chart is the German model. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/verification/monthly_ts_e.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I believe the "DWD" in this verification chart is the German model. dwd? huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 dwd? huh? Deutscher Wetterdienst (Germany) is the DWD model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I believe the "DWD" in this verification chart is the German model. http://www.weatherof...nthly_ts_e.html lol, I thought you were joking about that. I'll have to check it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Deutscher Wetterdienst (Germany) is the DWD model. Speaking of the pic I posted? I don't see a dwd. I am assuming u meant either the cmc or the gem on that photo was supposed to be dwd? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Speaking of the pic I posted? I don't see a dwd. Yes I know--"German" may be the "GEM". I have seen it referenced as the German model before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 18z GFS wide right! If you take a blend of everything this bad boy takes a track right over eastern Ohio near the APPS... I'll take it but there is complete model chaos right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Yes I know--"German" may be the "GEM". I have seen it referenced as the German model before. Okay well read what u said and you will understand my confusion. You said "I believe the dwd in that verification chart may be the german" so you meant to put gem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Yes I know--"German" may be the "GEM". I have seen it referenced as the German model before. I doubt it. The "GEM" track on that map looks like the 0z GEM track, while the "CMC" track looks like the 12z GEM track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 please post links and maps to the German. Lets add it to the rest of the weenie models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 fwiw: 12Z GGEM 120hr ensemble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Tier 1A: GFS, EURO Tier 1B: NAM(pending how far out the event is) Tier 2: GEM, RGEM, Ukmet Fantasy: Nogaps, JMA, FIM, Hi RES FIM, HRRR<,RRR, RR, RUC<, NNM, ARW, WRF, ETA, DGEX, SREF, DEV, RUC,m Backup RUC, Local WRFS from NOAA, Local mesoscale models from tv stations. Super ghey: Americanwx high res model. Did I miss anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 King? Please. It couldn't even sample the pattern right this week while every other model had runs before known the h5 was going to dig south. The GFS's cred is on the line. It busts with this, the model is dead. uhh, the verification scores and this winter would say otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 King? Please. It couldn't even sample the pattern right this week while every other model had runs before known the h5 was going to dig south. The GFS's cred is on the line. It busts with this, the model is dead. I used quotes for a reason--mostly referencing everyone calling the Euro that. Either way--no models cred is on the line. The GFS is a perfectly fine model--and it has done well if one knows how to use it. Verbatim solutions don't matter here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 18z DGEX ain't awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Tier 1A: GFS, EURO Tier 1B: NAM(pending how far out the event is) Tier 2: GEM, RGEM, Ukmet Fantasy: Nogaps, JMA, FIM, Hi RES FIM, HRRR<,RRR, RR, RUC<, NNM, ARW, WRF, ETA, DGEX, SREF, DEV, RUC,m Backup RUC, Local WRFS from NOAA, Local mesoscale models from tv stations. Super ghey: Americanwx high res model. Did I miss anything? I wouldn't really classify the short-term high res models as "fantasy".... Other than your on the right page.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I doubt it. The "GEM" track on that map looks like the 0z GEM track, while the "CMC" track looks like the 12z GEM track. You are probably right--I was just guessing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Tier 1A: GFS, EURO Tier 1B: NAM(pending how far out the event is) Tier 2: GEM, RGEM, Ukmet Fantasy: Nogaps, JMA, FIM, Hi RES FIM, HRRR<,RRR, RR, RUC<, NNM, ARW, WRF, ETA, DGEX, SREF, DEV, RUC,m Backup RUC, Local WRFS from NOAA, Local mesoscale models from tv stations. Super ghey: Americanwx high res model. Did I miss anything? NAM beyond 48 hours is ranked below the GEM/UKIE in my books. And a lot of those hi res models you mentioned have their uses in the very near term (<36 hours). I wouldn't describe them as "fantasy", if used correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I used the term fantasy because you are right, used correctly the RUC can def snuff out short term trends but its placement is ussually crap. ansd when I say fantasy from whats I understand the recent long term verifcication is euro at 92-93 percent and gfs 90 percent or so? Hasn't the ukmet been good as well>? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Okay well read what u said and you will understand my confusion. You said "I believe the dwd in that verification chart may be the german" so you meant to put gem. Yeah I should have made that more clear. Either way--Canuck is prolly right and they didnt want to bother with 0Z and 12Z so they used CMC and GEM, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 fwiw: 12Z GGEM 120hr ensemble Love your graphics. Eye catching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Well not yet--I know how chaos can go--and a lot can change--but the GFS has been the "king" here in this +PNA pattern--and there is no denying it has handled the large scale Pacific Ridge and the cyclones that head into the US whereas the CMC has been OK (it did better with this incoming clipper and never had a big storm) and the Euro has been trash. since this is the big issue with this storm, i don't see how you can do anything but favor the GFS at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 I'll bring up a point baro mentioned earlier. It's possible there's still a pretty decent event out of this even if there's not a full phase. Central/southern Plains region is looking good now with basically any solution...the big question is what happens after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I used the term fantasy because you are right, used correctly the RUC can def snuff out short term trends but its placement is ussually crap. ansd when I say fantasy from whats I understand the recent long term verifcication is euro at 92-93 percent and gfs 90 percent or so? Hasn't the ukmet been good as well>? Percent of what? Also, the UK sucks as a global model--simple as that. High height field verification means nothing and it isn't all that usable of a model. Nobody bothers with it for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 18z DGEX ain't awful. LOL Pretty sweet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Percent of what? Also, the UK sucks as a global model--simple as that. High height field verification means nothing and it isn't all that usable of a model. Nobody bothers with it for a reason. You posted charts that said the EURO had a 5 day verification of about 93 percent for H5 when it was runnign at peak recenty. while the GFS was around .901 and the EURO was .932 or something, you showed 00z and 12z the Ukmet for a month or so around November was .918 percent on there or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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