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End of January/early February storm potential part 2


Hoosier

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If there's a German model, I'm sure it's efficiently lethal.

Also, it's interesting how I see the JMA get more and more recognition. I think it's passed the "joke model" threshold.

IMO and many others I have read are saying the JMA handled this last storm the best. Didnt waffle nearly as much as the others did.

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Storm cancel

Well not yet--I know how chaos can go--and a lot can change--but the GFS has been the "king" here in this +PNA pattern--and there is no denying it has handled the large scale Pacific Ridge and the cyclones that head into the US whereas the CMC has been OK (it did better with this incoming clipper and never had a big storm) and the Euro has been trash.

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Tier 1A: GFS, EURO

Tier 1B: NAM(pending how far out the event is)

Tier 2: GEM, RGEM, Ukmet

Fantasy: Nogaps, JMA, FIM, Hi RES FIM, HRRR<,RRR, RR, RUC<, NNM, ARW, WRF, ETA, DGEX, SREF, DEV, RUC,m Backup RUC, Local WRFS from NOAA, Local mesoscale models from tv stations.

Super ghey: Americanwx high res model.

Did I miss anything?

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King? Please. It couldn't even sample the pattern right this week while every other model had runs before known the h5 was going to dig south. The GFS's cred is on the line. It busts with this, the model is dead.

I used quotes for a reason--mostly referencing everyone calling the Euro that. Either way--no models cred is on the line. The GFS is a perfectly fine model--and it has done well if one knows how to use it. Verbatim solutions don't matter here.

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Tier 1A: GFS, EURO

Tier 1B: NAM(pending how far out the event is)

Tier 2: GEM, RGEM, Ukmet

Fantasy: Nogaps, JMA, FIM, Hi RES FIM, HRRR<,RRR, RR, RUC<, NNM, ARW, WRF, ETA, DGEX, SREF, DEV, RUC,m Backup RUC, Local WRFS from NOAA, Local mesoscale models from tv stations.

Super ghey: Americanwx high res model.

Did I miss anything?

I wouldn't really classify the short-term high res models as "fantasy"....

Other than your on the right page..

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Tier 1A: GFS, EURO

Tier 1B: NAM(pending how far out the event is)

Tier 2: GEM, RGEM, Ukmet

Fantasy: Nogaps, JMA, FIM, Hi RES FIM, HRRR<,RRR, RR, RUC<, NNM, ARW, WRF, ETA, DGEX, SREF, DEV, RUC,m Backup RUC, Local WRFS from NOAA, Local mesoscale models from tv stations.

Super ghey: Americanwx high res model.

Did I miss anything?

NAM beyond 48 hours is ranked below the GEM/UKIE in my books. And a lot of those hi res models you mentioned have their uses in the very near term (<36 hours). I wouldn't describe them as "fantasy", if used correctly.

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Okay well read what u said and you will understand my confusion. You said "I believe the dwd in that verification chart may be the german" so you meant to put gem. :)

Yeah I should have made that more clear. Either way--Canuck is prolly right and they didnt want to bother with 0Z and 12Z so they used CMC and GEM, lol.

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Well not yet--I know how chaos can go--and a lot can change--but the GFS has been the "king" here in this +PNA pattern--and there is no denying it has handled the large scale Pacific Ridge and the cyclones that head into the US whereas the CMC has been OK (it did better with this incoming clipper and never had a big storm) and the Euro has been trash.

since this is the big issue with this storm, i don't see how you can do anything but favor the GFS at this point.

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I'll bring up a point baro mentioned earlier. It's possible there's still a pretty decent event out of this even if there's not a full phase. Central/southern Plains region is looking good now with basically any solution...the big question is what happens after that.

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I used the term fantasy because you are right, used correctly the RUC can def snuff out short term trends but its placement is ussually crap.

ansd when I say fantasy from whats I understand the recent long term verifcication is euro at 92-93 percent and gfs 90 percent or so?

Hasn't the ukmet been good as well>?

Percent of what? Also, the UK sucks as a global model--simple as that. High height field verification means nothing and it isn't all that usable of a model. Nobody bothers with it for a reason.

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Percent of what? Also, the UK sucks as a global model--simple as that. High height field verification means nothing and it isn't all that usable of a model. Nobody bothers with it for a reason.

You posted charts that said the EURO had a 5 day verification of about 93 percent for H5 when it was runnign at peak recenty.

while the GFS was around .901 and the EURO was .932 or something, you showed 00z and 12z the Ukmet for a month or so around November was .918 percent on there or so.

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