dmc76 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 On 1/28/2011 at 5:04 AM, buckeye said: i'd call it a miller lite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 On 1/28/2011 at 5:06 AM, Alek said: they were both pretty good moves for anyone not on the east coast. Yeah. Even with the GEM, the OH folks probably get a front end thump of snow and ice. Might not even change over north of I-70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 On 1/28/2011 at 5:00 AM, Chicago Storm said: GFS Ensemble Mean: a nice shift from 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 On 1/28/2011 at 5:07 AM, buckeye said: haven't seen how much of a wtod the ggem manages to bring north. Either way it's not happening like that. Gonna either cut or stay further southeast. The snow line verbatim gets at least to a LAF-TOL line and maybe farther north than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 FWIW...nocraps with a 1004mb SLP over C. Kentucky at 132hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 looks too warm for most of IN, OH and the st.louis crowd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 0z Ukie... It was pretty clear from the 500mb images posted earlier that this was going to happen to some extent... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 On 1/28/2011 at 5:08 AM, snowstormcanuck said: Yeah. Even with the GEM, the OH folks probably get a front end thump of snow and ice. Might not even change over north of I-70. It does in Ohio (Mixing line stretches from Fort Wayne to Toledo to Cleveland at 120hr). I'm not sure about any parts of Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 UKMET comes in much further southeast/weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northernohio Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Yeah GGEM has us on the Lake Erie Shore right on the border.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 On 1/28/2011 at 5:10 AM, buckeye said: looks too warm for most of IN, OH and the st.louis crowd Shouldn't be dissecting a 120 image from the GGEM too much, but the critical thickness line gets to that point after that 0.25-0.50" of QPF gets deposited. Plus, that just represents where the snow is falling. Could still be sleeting or zring further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 On 1/28/2011 at 5:12 AM, Chicago Storm said: 0z Ukie... Pretty clear from the 500mb images posted earlier this was going to happen to some extent... phew....ukie throws a life line for us fearing the nw trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 On 1/28/2011 at 5:13 AM, Powerball said: It does in Ohio (Mixing line stretches from Fort Wayne to Toledo to Cleveland at 120hr). I'm not sure about any parts of Michigan. I meant to plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 On 1/28/2011 at 5:12 AM, Chicago Storm said: 0z Ukie... It was pretty clear from the 500mb images posted earlier that this was going to happen to some extent... Do you have 144 handy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 On 1/28/2011 at 5:04 AM, Angrysummons said: I think....if this were to fully 2 vort max phase, you would be quite quite happy with the result. Maybe so happy, you wouldn't ever want to see another storm again. Because it just would never be the same. Actually I probably would... LOL. In all seriousness, I have been trying to follow everyone's analysis on this system so far. I am holding out for a decent snow for the early part of next, week but trying not to get caught up right now, as it is only Thursday. However, enough seems to be going "right" as it were, that I am more interested in following this thing at this point. My feeling is, if this keeps up for another model run or two, I'll be looking forward to some snow for the first part of next week. It would be a much needed break to the monotony that the pattern has been lately.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 On 1/28/2011 at 5:15 AM, snowstormcanuck said: I meant to plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 On 1/28/2011 at 5:16 AM, snowstormcanuck said: Do you have 144 handy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 On 1/28/2011 at 5:20 AM, Chicago Storm said: Ok, wasn't sure if it was going to ride the Apps or head towards the coast. Latter scenario it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 0Z high resolution ggem 120 & 132 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 On 1/28/2011 at 5:17 AM, Powerball said: Ok. I-80. Excuse me for trying optimism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 yikes to the p-type on the GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 GFS now shows significant ice storm in OKC, transitioning to snow in the end. Looking at the depth, strength, and orientation of the high on Monday, I think it may be underdoing the cold air intrustion, thus affecting p-types. Oh yeah, and it's still almost 4-5 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 On 1/28/2011 at 5:21 AM, prinsburg_wx said: 0Z high resolution ggem 120 & 132 ORD gets massacred. I'm still trying to wrap my head around how that low gets to just n of NYC in 12 hours. Seems like a plotting error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 On 1/28/2011 at 5:21 AM, prinsburg_wx said: 0Z high resolution ggem 120 & 132 How in the world is there a surface low near NYC 12 hours later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 On 1/28/2011 at 5:23 AM, Hoosier said: How in the world is there a surface low near NYC 12 hours later. Teleportation technology is very real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 On 1/28/2011 at 5:23 AM, Hoosier said: How in the world is there a surface low near NYC 12 hours later. Cause it's the GEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 On 1/28/2011 at 5:23 AM, Hoosier said: How in the world is there a surface low near NYC 12 hours later. hr 138 ggem...i dunno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OhioValleyWx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 On 1/28/2011 at 5:07 AM, buckeye said: haven't seen how much of a wtod the ggem manages to bring north. Either way it's not happening like that. Gonna either cut or stay further southeast. Good point. The dramatics of the GFS is a red flag overall. I have to side on more of a SE solution based on set up. Does not mean it will work that way but I like something in the middle between the Detroit Euro a few runs ago and the off the SC coast. It puts the low in SE KY or NE TN. Scary that the GFS ensemble mean is close to that track. Josh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 On 1/28/2011 at 5:07 AM, snowstormcanuck said: scored a run on a sac fly too. Productive run for those craving a big storm. LOL hitting the cycle tonight with the baseball references. GGEM looks to dump decent front end snows before the main storm arrives, kind of like what happened yesterday in philly. Looking good but as well know phasing is a touchy situation. Luckily we should know by sunday if we still have a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 On 1/28/2011 at 5:23 AM, Hoosier said: How in the world is there a surface low near NYC 12 hours later. Transfer maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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