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NYC Area January 26-27 Bomb Discussion and OBS Part 5

earthlight

By earthlight,
in New York City Metro

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A-L-E-X

A-L-E-X

Posted
Posted

Wouldn't a half-season be Jan 15? Meteo winter runs Dec 1 thru Feb 28/29, correct?

Yeah but, as was said earlier, we're not yet at the mid point as far as the snow season is concerned. Met winter is just something they came up with because theyre too lazy to calculate the numbers for the scientific definition of winter ;)

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pazzo83

pazzo83

Posted
Posted

It is interesting how all three major storms of this winter (December 26-27, January 11-12, and January 26-27) all mainly occurred at night. However, the February 9-10 storm last winter broke the overnight rule.

The "it will snow a sh*tton in the NYC metro" rule hasn't been broken since Feb 9/10 however.

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A-L-E-X

A-L-E-X

Posted
Posted

The "it will snow a sh*tton in the NYC metro" rule hasn't been broken since Feb 9/10 however.

LOL great point. Actually, we did have heavy snow for awhile yesterday morning (huge surprise), so that other rule about heavy snow only at night doesnt really work.

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Stormlover74

Stormlover74

Posted
Posted

I believe it was February 5 due to the previously lower averages in December and tendency to get more in mid Feb through Mid march. But with the averages changing after a snowy string of Decembers since 2000 that may have changed.

Ah yea, I guess you have to lump in March. So basically it's Dec-Mar where the end of Jan would be the midpoint, makes sense.

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pazzo83

pazzo83

Posted
Posted

LOL great point. Actually, we did have heavy snow for awhile yesterday morning (huge surprise), so that other rule about heavy snow only at night doesnt really work.

Hahah yea I know, I was trying to fly out of LGA to Chicago for work thinking, hmm can't even see the runway from the terminal. ****.

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ace0927

ace0927

Posted
Posted

That snow cover map is heavily tainted by the low JFK measurement in the areas you mentioned.

I'm not sure the JFK measurement is as off as some believe, however. Sheepshead Bay, Brooklyn only had 13", and Oceanside only 12". The Sheepshead Bay measurement was from a trained spotter, and the Oceanside measurement is from a trained spotter and former NWS coop observer.

maybe those are JUST from the night event? I know i received abt 13" from the second, probably a bit more....and abt 3 from the morning storm.

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ace0927

ace0927

Posted
Posted

That 16-17 inch range that we've all measured is probably a good range for us, plus 3 inches of previous snowcover, so a snowdepth of about 20"

Seasonal snowfall is now up to 55" here.

Really?

I have 19" from dec 26, 17" from yesterday, 9" from jan 11....about 6" from all the other little deals...51" total....close enough i guess.

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

For the poor people that slept thru this storm.

Here is the radar shot of the sickest band sitting right over all of NYC's 5 boroughs. 3"-4" an hour.

k4tp8y.jpg

When you see the NAM/NMM or those other hires models print out that kind of band, usually you laugh and move on. But when it actually verifies and 4"/hour snow comes down, it's just beyond epic. One of the most incredible storms I've ever witnessed-from the thundersleet on.

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ace0927

ace0927

Posted
Posted

Anybody have the list of top snowfalls totals thru half a season (Jan. 31) for KNYC.

I believe the old record was in the mid forties range. KNYC has what, 57.1"?

old record was 44"....or very close to it...we crushed that record.

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danstorm

danstorm

Posted
Posted

Well if the pattern remains unchanged then KNYC has a shot. We'll probably remain in the same pattern for the next 10 days, but I doubt we will remain in the same pattern for the next 2 1/2 months.

Most likely KNYC won't even break its 95-96 record.

But I wouldn't "bet my job" that it won't. ;)

Lol... I think it was "Bet my career". That should go down in NYC AmWx lore.

But, he was basically hugging the NAM which certainly has been sh*tting the bed since scoring the 01/12 coup.

Thing is, you can't blame the guy.

NAM may have been off its rocker but the majority of models were starting to resemble the NAM - run after run - so who didn't think the "NYC skip over" scenario wasn't plausible? It's happened before.

This was, essentially, a warmer, faster, south-displaced version of 01/12 that crippled SNE. Yet, the same ewd model tick/reduction of QPF within 24 hrs. occurred with that storm... From 12-18-00Z that day, models came in drier for NYC Metro... all models kept shifting east and after examining the 00Z guidance, I started thinking that NYC would need to roll snake eyes to get 6 and that I had wasted my time taking the train up the Hudson and E into Ct. "6-10", I told my dad as he went to sleep, wondering why it wasn't snowing very hard. I thought most of Jersey would get a few inches, tops.

Yet, on that night, Earthlight came in with 10, NYC had 9.2, and I hung a 22. Probably the most unreal band I've ever experienced with 4-5"/hr. rates.

And, as Earth/ace/NYC/far SW Ct. crew can attest to, once you have a band like that setting up shop overhead, it only takes a few hours to swap an M or H into SECS.

The epic banding events we've seen this winter really trump anything I witnessed in my childhood - I think the heaviest rate I experienced in 95-96 was 3"/hr. during one of the February storms... otherwise, it was usually 2"/hr. that was the realistic upper end. Who knows, perhaps it's happened the whole time - radars are more powerful and we have a much denser real-time observational network (thanks, in large part, to this board :) ) ... but it just seems that every storm wants to produce the heaviest snow/snow rate that is physically possible.

The trend this winter is for 1) models to trim back QPF at the very last minute only to have 2) the storm outperform the original prog that got cut back!

3-6 calls become 2-4 on the 11 o'clock news roundup ... and we get 10.

6-10 NYC... oh, wait, make that 4-8 (and bet my career on it!) - KNYC drops a Product 19. It's uncanny and totally unprecedented.

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NJwinter23

NJwinter23

Posted
Posted

I know we got pounded last night. I was referring to 12/26 where we got clobbered and ace "missed out" so to speak.

Ah okay. By the way, our county observeres are sucking at reporting for this storm. No one seems to have measured when we changed to drizzle yesterday afternoon or cleared their board. Or else people are sending in part 2 totals only. Our county is getting jipped on the PNS and its ticking me off a bit (these minor issues get to me for some reason lol).

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ace0927

ace0927

Posted
Posted

Lol... I think it was "Bet my career". That should go down in NYC AmWx lore.

But, he was basically hugging the NAM which certainly has been sh*tting the bed since scoring the 01/12 coup.

Thing is, you can't blame the guy.

NAM may have been off its rocker but the majority of models were starting to resemble the NAM - run after run - so who didn't think the "NYC skip over" scenario wasn't plausible? It's happened before.

This was, essentially, a warmer, faster, south-displaced version of 01/12 that crippled SNE. Yet, the same ewd model tick/reduction of QPF within 24 hrs. occurred with that storm... From 12-18-00Z that day, models came in drier for NYC Metro... all models kept shifting east and after examining the 00Z guidance, I started thinking that NYC would need to roll snake eyes to get 6 and that I had wasted my time taking the train up the Hudson and E into Ct. "6-10", I told my dad as he went to sleep, wondering why it wasn't snowing very hard. I thought most of Jersey would get a few inches, tops.

Yet, on that night, Earthlight came in with 10, NYC had 9.2, and I hung a 22. Probably the most unreal band I've ever experienced with 4-5"/hr. rates.

And, as Earth/ace/NYC/far SW Ct. crew can attest to, once you have a band like that setting up shop overhead, it only takes a few hours to swap an M or H into SECS.

The epic banding events we've seen this winter really trump anything I witnessed in my childhood - I think the heaviest rate I experienced in 95-96 was 3"/hr. during one of the February storms... otherwise, it was usually 2"/hr. that was the realistic upper end. Who knows, perhaps it's happened the whole time - radars are more powerful and we have a much denser real-time observational network (thanks, in large part, to this board :) ) ... but it just seems that every storm wants to produce the heaviest snow/snow rate that is physically possible.

The trend this winter is for 1) models to trim back QPF at the very last minute only to have 2) the storm outperform the original prog that got cut back!

3-6 calls become 2-4 on the 11 o'clock news roundup ... and we get 10.

6-10 NYC... oh, wait, make that 4-8 (and bet my career on it!) - KNYC drops a Product 19. It's uncanny and totally unprecedented.

this is an amazing and entertaining synopsis of this winter...i can attest, for the first time in my life (that i remember) i found my self under one of those bands for more than 15 minutes (about 2-3 hours).....and WOW...it reminded me of what happens during the late spring with a 2 hour thunderstorm...just pours and pours....

this winter will be the platinum standard of winters for decades to come.

I also believe in the concept of pattern repetition (and recognition) and there is PLENTY more in store for us.

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ace0927

ace0927

Posted
Posted

side note- if the GFS doesnt hold back the energy in the SW at hr 144 we are going to be looking at another HUGE EPIC storm....as it is it would probably be a 6-10" storm....

i know people dont like him, but DT is VERY good at pattern recognition and he has signing the tunes of that event for a while....and voila its stating to really look good.

if you cant tell- im absolutely stoked to track that storm.

I am starting a new position on Feb 14th so I have little time left to really enjoy myself before my life gets turned upside down...lets hope that is a biggie!

EDIT- The 12Z GGEM has a low trying to bounce into a 1040 high in Ontario....not gonna happen. That has hybrid A/miller B written all lover it.

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CooL

CooL

Posted
Posted

side note- if the GFS doesnt hold back the energy in the SW at hr 144 we are going to be looking at another HUGE EPIC storm....as it is it would probably be a 6-10" storm....

i know people dont like him, but DT is VERY good at pattern recognition and he has signing the tunes of that event for a while....and voila its stating to really look good.

if you cant tell- im absolutely stoked to track that storm.

I am starting a new position on Feb 14th so I have little time left to really enjoy myself before my life gets turned upside down...lets hope that is a biggie!

there is another thread for that storm. But agree, it does look good

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