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January 26-27 Storm Disco/Obs III


Baroclinic Zone

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The RGEM was the model of choice 48 hrs in. In the medium range, the Euro was the model of choice. That's all I'm saying. As for the NAM, it did many things right, but if you had to give a forecast off of it (and many did), you would be burned. The speed of the system was just a point in saying that the Euro's performance was not as bad as perceived. 5 days ago it was the best guidance we had (not just bc of QPF). People only remember yesterday.

Leesun updating now that the HPC Euro maps updated.

At 48-72 hours the Euro hung on the slow side, by 72 hours at 500 it was "terrible" by euro standards. Same at the surface,...unusually bad with SLP placed hundreds of miles too far SW. Those were the "banner" runs that you and some others were referring to that brought all the snow. That's all I'm saying, to say that it was right...when it was off by hundreds of miles on the main features at 2-3 days.....

What's even more surprising is inside of 2 days it figured out what was going on, but could never fully grasp the eastward stretch to the system so it still had issues. It underplayed that aspect, the NAM overplayed and they were both terrible.

The GFS...not sure how it manages to do so well with the features and still blow many aspects...RGEM FTW.

I wasn't sure what these maps would show exactly, but I think it's pretty clear that even though many "got" what it would have forecast a couple of days prior it was a totall different type of system. That is/probably will be about one of the worst performances by the euro you'll see. Normally even at 72 the contours are almost a sketch.

Posting mainly so people don't make the same assumptions/mistakes I did leading up to the Blizzard. I think probably we gave the NAM and it's subsidiaries too much credit for that storm. They were right despite their tendencies. Just like when the inverted trough system pooped out over Cape Cod (but not CT) I held it against the NAM when it had most of the details right. These little meso/convective lows that are popping up are causing the globals at times to overplay the systems, the meso's to freak and not do as much as they should to the west. If it's a general bias we see great we can see and adjust. But with no model doing particularly well, crapping on any one model.....will probably lead to bad forecasts in the 36-96 hour range. Look for disturbances on the meso's running SE of the M/L, look for the general idea from the globals and realize both are probably too extreme.

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For us yes, not the widespread 20 s in all of these but wow.

What amazes me about these systems is that for the most part they are effecting areas from DC to Boston. What's a little odd is Portland and Albany keep missing out. Weird.

My thought is the track is going to shift 50 miles in the next series of events, NW or probably SE due to the cold air.

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Holy crap!!!

This storm delivered - BIG TIME.

19"  over the period from yesterday morning.

Will be taking photos, but will also have to dig out some before photos so people know what the hell they're looking at because there's so much freaking snow.

Happy anniversary, this time last year we were preparing for the onslaught of what would become my all time record OTG depth.

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Great system...enjoyed it immensely...thrilled I planned a little sleep and awoke at 2AM in time for the party.

As others have noted...epic snow pack....simply astounding. My wife..who is used to my hype and sometimes rolls her eyes had them wide open in shock when she looked out the window upon awakening as the snow was ending.

Kevin...those snowbanks are amazing. Next GTG at your house...we'll cater and buy your wife something nice. Let's hope we can do it while the pack is high. (There...I invited myself and everyone else to your house.....lol...)

My only beef is what Zeus alluded to. Logan Airport is a piss poor representative of the Boston snow climate. It would be like having JFK representing NYC.. In events that had a cf with taint that only effected East Boston but nowhere downtown per everyone I spoke to, having them 9.9 while the rest of us were close to a foot is unfair. Same goes for summer temps...downtown 87, BOS 69. Use the Common, Kenmore, event MIT. Much more representative. Ok beef over...wonderful storm.

Today's modeling brings to mind one of the all time greats....1993-94. We're snowpacking without melting like that year but KUing like 2 years later. What an epic year....and Tip's thread as well as guidance suggests we're not ending anytime soon. I'm savoring every moment......my winters are more numbered than you younger folks and if we go into a 10 year slump, I might not see a good one again until I'm in my mid 70s. But as always...remember.....Long....Live....Winter!! WHOOOOOOO!!!!

Seeing this post from me a year ago reminds me to always relish it when here. A year later in a polar opposite January....

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Happy anniversary, this time last year we were preparing for the onslaught of what would become my all time record OTG depth.

lol - How pitiful we've become dragging awesome storms from our past out for jollies.

But yes, this was an amazing storm. I remember crying about the sleet potential early on. I think I had a short lived period of pingers for a small amount of time.

I think I shoveled the roofs off at least 3 times last year.

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lol -  How pitiful we've become dragging awesome storms from our past out for jollies.

But yes, this was an amazing storm. I remember crying about the sleet potential early on.  I think I had a short lived period of pingers for a small amount of time.

I think I shoveled the roofs off at least 3 times last year.

Memories are what make us, I knew last year to savor every second because it was a once in a lifetime for me. LOL I remember you weening out about being pelted. 6-8 in an hour bro 6-8 wow.

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