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January 26-27 Storm Disco/Obs III


Baroclinic Zone

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officially 4.5" IMBY.

seems like a general 3 to 8" across the Cape. a lot of 3 to 5" from about Eastham to Barnstable. dryslot FTL...but still better than no snow. :lol:

some spots picked up 2" on the upper cape yesterday but lost some of it overnight...have to guess that event total is ballpark 3 to 10" across the cape.

on to the next one.

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its true....the euro was outstanding if it had just stuck to its guns, but it really crapped out the last 2 runs.....wierd!!!

When it lost the signal for a single consolidated whacking it crapper out. Not really sure why. Although the nam was first with the idea or the splitter it's so erratic it's unusable most of the time. I dont understand what's going on with it as the rgem isn't all over the place and held pretty good on this one.

Ruc was good but it did go too far nw for a bunch of hours. Hrrr was better when the ruc was way nw, then came a little too far se. But it did pretty much nail the 10-20" zones in ct ri MA at different times. It also was one of the few models to show the cape mostly busting low again due to temps and dry intrusion.

In the end I think the model troubles centered on two vorticity centers circling the midlevel. Look at last nights water vapor, as it exited the coast there's a tight northern spin that rides around the top of the circulation just as it passes under long island. That helped to nail ct even harder than the most optimistic model forecast. It also turned things sour for a lot of the extreme coast and cape which for the most part so far busted another warning I think. Four straight.

Meanwhile the canal continues to be the divider. 9" here. Five to ten miles se there's less than half that. 10 miles nw a lot more. I'm happy.

Peak wind gust of 47 mph.

Frankly I don't understand how I'm hanging onto snow here each time not the climo at all.

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When it lost the signal for a single consolidated whacking it crapper out. Not really sure why. Although the nam was first with the idea or the splitter it's so erratic it's unusable most of the time. I dont understand what's going on with it as the rgem isn't all over the place and held pretty good on this one.

Ruc was good but it did go too far nw for a bunch of hours. Hrrr was better when the ruc was way nw, then came a little too far se. But it did pretty much nail the 10-20" zones in ct ri MA at different times. It also was one of the few models to show the cape mostly busting low again due to temps and dry intrusion.

In the end I think the model troubles centered on two vorticity centers circling the midlevel. Look at last nights water vapor, as it exited the coast there's a tight northern spin that rides around the top of the circulation just as it passes under long island. That helped to nail ct even harder than the most optimistic model forecast. It also turned things sour for a lot of the extreme coast and cape which for the most part so far busted another warning I think. Four straight.

Meanwhile the canal continues to be the divider. 9" here. Five to ten miles se there's less than half that. 10 miles nw a lot more. I'm happy.

Peak wind gust of 47 mph.

Frankly I don't understand how I'm hanging onto snow here each time not the climo at all.

because it snows where it wants to snow.

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When it lost the signal for a single consolidated whacking it crapper out. Not really sure why. Although the nam was first with the idea or the splitter it's so erratic it's unusable most of the time. I dont understand what's going on with it as the rgem isn't all over the place and held pretty good on this one.

Ruc was good but it did go too far nw for a bunch of hours. Hrrr was better when the ruc was way nw, then came a little too far se. But it did pretty much nail the 10-20" zones in ct ri MA at different times. It also was one of the few models to show the cape mostly busting low again due to temps and dry intrusion.

In the end I think the model troubles centered on two vorticity centers circling the midlevel. Look at last nights water vapor, as it exited the coast there's a tight northern spin that rides around the top of the circulation just as it passes under long island. That helped to nail ct even harder than the most optimistic model forecast. It also turned things sour for a lot of the extreme coast and cape which for the most part so far busted another warning I think. Four straight.

Meanwhile the canal continues to be the divider. 9" here. Five to ten miles se there's less than half that. 10 miles nw a lot more. I'm happy.

Peak wind gust of 47 mph.

Frankly I don't understand how I'm hanging onto snow here each time not the climo at all.

there are reports of 7 to 9" in parts of bourne and sandwich. it's a general 3 to 5 3 to 6 kinda thing from barnstable eastward...

i think overall the mid-cape is the area that came in lower (at least than i expected). i was thinking 6-7 in D/Y/B area and it's more like 4/5. outer cape (though chatham could be much lower not sure) i've heard 3 to 5.

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officially 4.5" IMBY.

seems like a general 3 to 8" across the Cape. a lot of 3 to 5" from about Eastham to Barnstable. dryslot FTL...but still better than no snow. :lol:

some spots picked up 2" on the upper cape yesterday but lost some of it overnight...have to guess that event total is ballpark 3 to 10" across the cape.

on to the next one.

Eventually we'll get ours, may not be this year though! I'm starting to think it's just impossible to beat this pattern. Pretty much anywhere NW of us you can forecast 8-16" for every frontal passage and be right. Down here no matter how much it looks like 5-10/6-12 we find a way to cut it in half.

Just to give you the run down so you know up here. The Sagamore report of 7.5"...not sure if that's storm total or not. It was pretty critical to measure during the height last night during the change or the amounts would be a little low. South plymouth reports 8, the Bourne NOAA employee (it got changed to spotter but I'm pretty sure it read employee earlier) had 5.7". They're on the other side of the bridge by the base close to falmouth which was even less. The warm nose seemed to sit just to my south for a bit along the dry slot before it compressed finally.

We ended up with about 1.7" from the first batch. Matches the NWS Employee report. It was entirely gone last night before the new stuff fell. Salt water for the loss. We had about 1.5" of heavy wet snow and sleet before the full turn. We picked up about 6" after the change....so 9" total, snow depth is probably about 7" right now of new snow. It weighs a ton. Plastered to trees, windows, I had two feet of sludge on the front door, all the windows facing the water are caked. Lost power 4 times during the height.

Once the snow line moved in winds died off quite a bit. Peak gust was 47 during the sleet. One faint clap of thunder off to the east associated with the 35dbz band that raced NW.

Not a bad storm. I'm guessing during the 2 hours of mix we lost out on about 2-3" of snow at that intensity. It was pouring sleet and snow.

Hands down RUC was actually best with temp profiles here. Nailed th warm nose that was just a hair above freezing above 850 and nailed the time of it collapsing east almost exactly. That's about the 4th or 5th storm this year where it beat everything else on temps. 1000-700 CT's were the key.

If people didn't meausure at 200 ish when the full change took place they lost an inch or so in their totals I believe. I now see why some are very religous about measuring.

going to take a ride later today up north of Bob to see some friends. Snow banks so high snowblowers cant fire over them. Last seen.....1978.

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