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January 26-27 Storm Disco/Obs III


Baroclinic Zone

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A little late to be looking at models I know but I thought that large differences between the 6hr GFS and NAM were fascinating. Look at the differences in the Mid-Atlantic. NAM has a big stripe of .75+ from BWI to northern NJ. GFS has .75+ stuff from south of MTK up to ORH and has .1-.3" qpf where the NAM had .75-1+. I'd say the truth was somewhere between these two.

Also look how the NAM tries to hold back the surface low.

nam_pcp_006s.gif

gfs_pcp_006s.gif

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A little late to be looking at models I know but I thought that large differences between the 6hr GFS and NAM were fascinating. Look at the differences in the Mid-Atlantic. NAM has a big stripe of .75+ from BWI to northern NJ. GFS has .75+ stuff from south of MTK up to ORH and has .1-.3" qpf where the NAM had .75-1+.

NAM's resolution caught the surface low back further to the southwest and associated dynamics, it seems, while the GFS was too far northeast with the main surface low and too far northeast with the banding over that 6 hour period from 00-06z.

The NAM was absolutely atrocious last night, though..so I guess what this is telling us is that we can trust it's 6 hour forecasts.

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NAM's resolution caught the surface low back further to the southwest and associated dynamics, it seems, while the GFS was too far northeast with the main surface low and too far northeast with the banding over that 6 hour period from 00-06z.

The NAM was absolutely atrocious last night, though..so I guess what this is telling us is that we can trust it's 6 hour forecasts.

Although the NAM definitely held back the dynamics for the Mid-Atlantic - NYC a little too much. CT/RI/eastern LI definitely got much a bit more than that in that period. Better than the GFS for sure though. Westerly had .55" vs the NAM's .25" and the NAM is usually wet. MTP had .71" vs .35"

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Oh my god.. probably some of the most epic video and pictures ive gotten. albeit horrible quality. I got to the top of dorchester heights and i will guesstimate gusts at and above 50mph. I thought my face was going to fall off. Heaviest snow I may have ever seen in my life and possibly lowest vis. It was down to 15-20 yds at best at points. Most of neighborhood hasn't been plowed in an hour. Snow is deep and up to the tires in the streets. Only plowed street was Broadway on my walk.

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Oh my god.. probably some of the most epic video and pictures ive gotten. albeit horrible quality. I got to the top of dorchester heights and i will guesstimate gusts at and above 50mph. I thought my face was going to fall off. Heaviest snow I may have ever seen in my life and possibly lowest vis. It was down to 15-20 yds at best at points. Most of neighborhood hasn't been plowed in an hour. Snow is deep and up to the tires in the streets. Only plowed street was Broadway on my walk.

:weenie:

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:weenie:

Will, I have a horrible memory. (short term memory disability diagnosed) I can usually barely remember the dates and amounts in events next week. This is one of those memories I won't forget for a long time. It's going to be in my mind with shoveling out April 97' and Getting plastered in Jan 05'. The conditions out there were intense.

Call me a weenie but what an awesome 45 minutes that was.

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