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PHL CWA Jan 26/27 Obs and Discussion thread..part III


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  On 1/27/2011 at 5:00 AM, famartin said:

Back home in Ewing as of midnight:

2.1" in the last hour (that's about 3 hours in a row of 2"/hour snow)

8.1" for round 2.

13.2" storm total.

HECS much? :arrowhead: If it goes much higher it'll go beyond my "all in" range of 8-16 :axe:

It slowed to 1 inch per.:thumbsup:

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So what model did best on this storm? GGEM once it stopped its inland solution? UKEMT?

Euro, GFS and NAM obviously crapped the bed on this one.

Short term models

The ARW and NMM, MM5 are worthless

And as for the now casting models

RUC did its adequate job, Impressed by HRRR and RR models

Thoughts?

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  On 1/27/2011 at 4:59 AM, foggy said:

Hvy Snow continues... back under another band.

Really heavy, Big Flakes.

30.0F

10.2" new (+4.5)= 14.7"

1.9" last hour.

I like his totals more...I'll go with the highest bidder

  On 1/27/2011 at 5:04 AM, Thunder Road said:

an even 12.0" from Round 2. That brings the storm total to 16.5"

With 18" on the ground and 2.1" the last hour. And still SN++

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  On 1/27/2011 at 5:08 AM, Noreaster07 said:

So what model did best on this storm? GGEM once it stopped its inland solution? UKEMT?

Euro, GFS and NAM obviously crapped the bed on this one.

Short term models

The ARW and NMM, MM5 are worthless

And as for the now casting models

RUC did its adequate job, Impressed by HRRR and RR models

Thoughts?

For once the cutoff was actually over-modeled. But I'd say the NMM did much better than the ARW and MM5 and shouldn't be grouped with those. I'm also consistently impressed with the HRRR, it has nailed every event this winter. I can't believe its 10-20" of additional snow is proving to be correct.

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  On 1/27/2011 at 5:13 AM, Thunder Road said:

For once the cutoff was actually over-modeled. But I'd say the NMM did much better than the ARW and MM5 and shouldn't be grouped with those. I'm also consistently impressed with the HRRR, it has nailed every event this winter. I can't believe its 10-20" of additional snow is proving to be correct.

I guess its perspective, but the NMM sucked for those on the NW side LV, Reading area, only supposed to get an 1" or less, I think the whole axis on the NMM was off by a good 50-70 miles, But obviously did much better than its brother the ARW

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