Jim_in_CA Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The NWS is currently testing "impact" based forecasting where there are no longer "concrete" rules. In other words-- 4 inches of heavy snow at rush hour may garner a winter storm warning while 4 inches of light snow overnight may only get a Winter Weather Advisory. They are testing it out at Paducah, KY NWS I believe. I think it is a great move since weather impacts can vary significantly beyond simple "guidelines" for warnings/watches. This is a really interesting idea. Because I know you sometimes also get the wintry mix situation, where its a pretty major storm, but there isn't enough of any one p-type to reach warning criteria but the impact level is clearly there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I do not believe that jibs should be in jeopardy down in Sterling. That's a bit much. However, I do agree that the NWS was pretty caught up in politics while they should have been more worried about their duties. I do not agree that politics should be involved in any way at all when the safety of millions is on the line. It's your job to make an accurate forecast, so garb yours balls and do it. The fact that a forecast can be swayed by what people may think or overreact to is ridiculous. I would far rather have millions of people home safe early and the storm fizzle out more than what was forecast than to see what happened on Wed night. A WWA was a joke, especially considering guidance had a lot of the QPF bull's eye (NAM) RIGHT over D.C. Even in Ellicott City where I live one of my friends called right when it started to snowing saying that he had heard it would only snow a few inches. Granted this was probably due to the Tv mets, this brings me to the real criminals here. I mean they're impact on the public has gotten way out of hand. The only forecast I saw with more than 3 inches was from Doug Hill/Bob Ryan ; interesting how some said Doug Hill was downplaying the event earlier. This is where most of the public gets their information and it is very unfortunate. They are simply awful. Someone on this thread mentioned futurecast. What a good point. Future cast is probably the single most worthless piece of equipment ever introduced into the meteo profession. It had no bearing on what temps and dynamics would be. All these "mets" could see was a rain snow line moving east across the area, and trivially picked a time when a switch to snow would happen. Local News stations need to be held accountable for their "mets." They are awful, and the system needs a huge upheaval. The best they can do is regurgitate and misinterpret information they get from Lwx and such. I think the standards for being a TV met need to drastically alter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I do not believe that jibs should be in jeopardy down in Sterling. That's a bit much. However, I do agree that the NWS was pretty caught up in politics while they should have been more worried about their duties. I do not agree that politics should be involved in any way at all when the safety of millions is on the line. It's your job to make an accurate forecast, so garb yours balls and do it. The fact that a forecast can be swayed by what people may think or overreact to is ridiculous. I would far rather have millions of people home safe early and the storm fizzle out more than what was forecast than to see what happened on Wed night. A WWA was a joke, especially considering guidance had a lot of the QPF bull's eye (NAM) RIGHT over D.C. Even in Ellicott City where I live one of my friends called right when it started to snowing saying that he had heard it would only snow a few inches. Granted this was probably due to the Tv mets, this brings me to the real criminals here. I mean they're impact on the public has gotten way out of hand. The only forecast I saw with more than 3 inches was from Doug Hill/Bob Ryan ; interesting how some said Doug Hill was downplaying the event earlier. This is where most of the public gets their information and it is very unfortunate. They are simply awful. Someone on this thread mentioned futurecast. What a good point. Future cast is probably the single most worthless piece of equipment ever introduced into the meteo profession. It had no bearing on what temps and dynamics would be. All these "mets" could see was a rain snow line moving east across the area, and trivially picked a time when a switch to snow would happen. Local News stations need to be held accountable for their "mets." They are awful, and the system needs a huge upheaval. The best they can do is regurgitate and misinterpret information they get from Lwx and such. I think the standards for being a TV met need to drastically alter. Good lord! This is SNOW we are talking about. Not a tornado, not a hurricane, not a flood. SNOW! Worst case scenario you have to wait a few hours in traffic to get home. Am I missing something here? Does anyone really not have enough food for a couple days if they get snowed in? I never understood the whole mad rush to the grocery store the day before a snow. What do you mean by politics? The mets and OCMs got it wrong but made the call they thought was best. I don't see what right people have to claim they did it on purpose. They messed it up and will try to do better next time. Had they predicted a blizzard and had it fizzle out I bet you would be complaining as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Good lord! This is SNOW we are talking about. Not a tornado, not a hurricane, not a flood. SNOW! Worst case scenario you have to wait a few hours in traffic to get home. Am I missing something here? Does anyone really not have enough food for a couple days if they get snowed in? I never understood the whole mad rush to the grocery store the day before a snow. What do you mean by politics? The mets and OCMs got it wrong but made the call they thought was best. I don't see what right people have to claim they did it on purpose. They messed it up and will try to do better next time. Had they predicted a blizzard and had it fizzle out I bet you would be complaining as well. Get your overall point about this not being a tornado or hurricane, but the situation was a bit worse than people just having to wait a few hours in traffic. When the entire Washington region basically grinds to a halt, it's not really an underestimate to say this also has some ramifications, beyond just traffic. If a big fire would have broken out, it would have burned out of control because firefighters, literally, could not respond to many calls. If a riot had erupted, police, literally, would not have been able to do much. If someone needed to get to the Pentagon for some emergency, they wouldn't have been able to get there, unless there is some secret tunnel under the Potomac that we don't know about. It was gridlock. Now, is this all LWX's fault? Hardly. Should they review if they could have done better by perhaps issuing stern warnings -- which some like Wes and Cap. Weather were able to do - earlier. Definetly.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Good lord! This is SNOW we are talking about. Not a tornado, not a hurricane, not a flood. SNOW! Worst case scenario you have to wait a few hours in traffic to get home. Am I missing something here? Does anyone really not have enough food for a couple days if they get snowed in? I never understood the whole mad rush to the grocery store the day before a snow. What do you mean by politics? The mets and OCMs got it wrong but made the call they thought was best. I don't see what right people have to claim they did it on purpose. They messed it up and will try to do better next time. Had they predicted a blizzard and had it fizzle out I bet you would be complaining as well. Snow.....that effects many families when they lose a loved one.....brilliant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 This is stupid. Mods put this thread in OT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Lord I get so tired of the Monday Morning Quarterbacking from people, usually kids, who dont really have a clue what they are even talking about. Its easy to look back and find what went wrong, but rarely does anyone look back and find what went right. In this thread, we have a few people with little experience and no degree who probably never put out a forecast in their life that anyone ever read, nit picking a very skilled NWS office who are responsible for developing a forecast for 4 million people. like with the exception of the red tags posting here, any one of you could have done so much better? Below is an email I sent my office and DOT directly after talking to NWS Sterling. From: Loconte, AnthonySent: Wed 1/26/2011 1:01 PMTo: OEMHS, DOTCc: Subject: Snow ConcernAttachments:I've been on several of these conference calls this morning and there is a threat we may see this afternoon that I feel may be getting overlooked. The HPC repeatedly mentions convective banding for North Central MD. This is a phenomena where thunderstorms from the warm sector plow into the cold sector of the storm. It involves intense snowfall and often thundersnow. If one of these bands sets up over MC, we can expect snowfall at a rate of 2-3" per hour. This kind of snow will bring interstates to a total stop stranding motorist because the plows can plow with rush hour traffic in place. We will have about a 30min heads up on radar before the band forms and moves through. I know we are concentrating on how much, but I want to mention that while 6" might not sound like a lot, when it falls in 2hs, its a huge problem. Tony Its not rocket science guys. DC has the second worse commuting area in the nation. You throw in any weather event, and it dramatically makes it worse. We seem to forget that at least 3 storms this year were underperformers and many of you were on here crying about how the NWS screwed it up because you didnt get what was forecast for you. This time, the NWS was a little hesitant based on experience and pattern, and here are the same dolts crying about how the trigger wasnt pulled earlier. If you arent an actual Met or pro forecaster, I would probably worry about informing your neighbors and Facebook friends about your storm calls and leave the real business to those of us who actually do it everyday because in the end, NWS Sterling has an excellent group of people calling the shots there, and I am pleased to be on a first name basis with just about all of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Lord I get so tired of the Monday Morning Quarterbacking from people, usually kids, who dont really have a clue what they are even talking about. Its easy to look back and find what went wrong, but rarely does anyone look back and find what went right. In this thread, we have a few people with little experience and no degree who probably never put out a forecast in their life that anyone ever read, nit picking a very skilled NWS office who are responsible for developing a forecast for 4 million people. like with the exception of the red tags posting here, any one of you could have done so much better? Below is an email I sent my office and DOT directly after talking to NWS Sterling. Its not rocket science guys. DC has the second worse commuting area in the nation. You throw in any weather event, and it dramatically makes it worse. We seem to forget that at least 3 storms this year were underperformers and many of you were on here crying about how the NWS screwed it up because you didnt get what was forecast for you. This time, the NWS was a little hesitant based on experience and pattern, and here are the same dolts crying about how the trigger wasnt pulled earlier. If you arent an actual Met or pro forecaster, I would probably worry about informing your neighbors and Facebook friends about your storm calls and leave the real business to those of us who actually do it everyday because in the end, NWS Sterling has an excellent group of people calling the shots there, and I am pleased to be on a first name basis with just about all of them. I generally agree with many of your points here, but the NWS has not done well with the winter storms this winter...Granted its been a tough winter to forecast for, but it was clear on MONDAY NIGHT that Central MD would get 6+ of snow and have extreme snowfall rates and trecherous driving with many power outages..I posted that on my weather blog Monday Night while the NWS and specifically TV mets were poo pooing things and calling for 1-3 inches and "no big deal"...They did bad on this storm point blank, and the day of the storm they changed their WSW headlines 4 times..It went from 5-10 to 4-8 to 3-6 then back to 6-10... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Good lord! This is SNOW we are talking about. Not a tornado, not a hurricane, not a flood. SNOW! Worst case scenario you have to wait a few hours in traffic to get home. Am I missing something here? Does anyone really not have enough food for a couple days if they get snowed in? I never understood the whole mad rush to the grocery store the day before a snow. What do you mean by politics? The mets and OCMs got it wrong but made the call they thought was best. I don't see what right people have to claim they did it on purpose. They messed it up and will try to do better next time. Had they predicted a blizzard and had it fizzle out I bet you would be complaining as well. I disagree here. Everyone on this board could see what was going to happen after 4pm in DC. A tornado is incredibly dangerous and can take lives, but what happened last Wednesday night should never have happened. People could have been stranded without medicine, or not able to get home to elderly/disabled loved ones, etc. There has to be more "we interrupt your normal programming' spots, on ALL radio and TV stations in situations like what happened last week, and there can be no excuses. None. 12 hours in traffic is not a few....did you see the video accounts on the news? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JeanineJ Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I like it, I say pitch it to them. I'd like to see the NWS try issuing a highway traction forecast with four mini-categories; 1. limited access roads a. sedans, small SUVs b four wheel drive vehicles with high road clearance 2. side streets a. sedans, small SUVs b. four wheel drive vehicles with high road clearance For each category, the time interval of concern could be predicted as well as a grade of A, B, or C for traction A = traction OK with good tire tread and cautious speed B = increasingly challenging conditions C = travel not recommended Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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