mdhokie Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 If NOAA has an Inspector General, they need to investigate what happened during the last 24 hours at LWX. Literally millions of people have been severely impacted by their delayed reaction to the potential impact of this snowstorm. We can all hope that no one lost their lives because they were stranded in gridlock across the area. Somehow the people responsible for issuing warnings to the public dropped the ball big time. They refused to accept the mounting pile of evidence that this storm was going to impact the commute for the entire DC/MD/VA area. OPM only granted the 2-hr early dismissal of DC area feds after NWS issued the special weather statement which discussed the disaster of 2"/hr snow rates combined with evening rush. It was too little too late. There needs to be investigations and people need to be held accountable. I am not sure what if any influence we can wield, but I will post any contact info I find. I know it is a tough job of balancing being a chicken little or not barking loud enough. However even many mets here and elsewhere were wondering what in the world LWX was thinking. I believe if warned in advance, OPM would have used liberal leave + a even earlier closing to try and get as many people off the roads before the worst hit. Many other offices in the area follow the fed's decision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 If NOAA has an Inspector General, they need to investigate what happened during the last 24 hours at LWX. Literally millions of people have been severely impacted by their delayed reaction to the potential impact of this snowstorm. We can all hope that no one lost their lives because they were stranded in gridlock across the area. Somehow the people responsible for issuing warnings to the public dropped the ball big time. They refused to accept the mounting pile of evidence that this storm was going to impact the commute for the entire DC/MD/VA area. OPM only granted the 2-hr early dismissal of DC area feds after NWS issued the special weather statement which discussed the disaster of 2"/hr snow rates combined with evening rush. It was too little too late. There needs to be investigations and people need to be held accountable. I am not sure what if any influence we can wield, but I will post any contact info I find. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Someone didn't want to go to work today.. You should sue them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 Someone didn't want to go to work today.. You should sue them. I had no problem going to work today. I went in early, clocked my 8 hours in and was home by 2:30PM. The reason I did this was reading this board and CWG blog posts. Its one thing for weenies to hype up some model runs, but when you have respected mets talking about big problems, you listen. I'd be really mad if I was still in traffic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 If NOAA has an Inspector General, they need to investigate what happened during the last 24 hours at LWX. Literally millions of people have been severely impacted by their delayed reaction to the potential impact of this snowstorm. We can all hope that no one lost their lives because they were stranded in gridlock across the area. Somehow the people responsible for issuing warnings to the public dropped the ball big time. They refused to accept the mounting pile of evidence that this storm was going to impact the commute for the entire DC/MD/VA area. OPM only granted the 2-hr early dismissal of DC area feds after NWS issued the special weather statement which discussed the disaster of 2"/hr snow rates combined with evening rush. It was too little too late. There needs to be investigations and people need to be held accountable. I am not sure what if any influence we can wield, but I will post any contact info I find. I know it is a tough job of balancing being a chicken little or not barking loud enough. However even many mets here and elsewhere were wondering what in the world LWX was thinking. I believe if warned in advance, OPM would have used liberal leave + a even earlier closing to try and get as many people off the roads before the worst hit. Many other offices in the area follow the fed's decision. lol ...over the top Look. I have said this countless times today...I love LWX..they are a pretty decent NWS office and I'm loathe to criticize these guys..but they kind of crapped the bed with this one admiittedly...but your post is over the top. They did issue the SPS. It's up to the public to take some responsibility here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 It's up to the public to take some responsibility here. Dats a good one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted January 27, 2011 Author Share Posted January 27, 2011 lol ...over the top Look. I have said this countless times today...I love LWX..they are a pretty decent NWS office and I'm loathe to criticize these guys..but they kind of crapped the bed with this one admiittedly...but your post is over the top. They did issue the SPS. It's up to the public to take some responsibility here. I hear ya.. and I do appreciate that it is a tough job and I would never want that kind of pressure, but thats their job. As you said, the public needs to take responsibility as well, however if you were going by what you heard on tv/radio or weather.gov, 3-5" probably didn't sound too bad. The SPS came out around 1PM. You can't clear DC in 3 hours. There was tons of evidence late Tuesday and early this morning when that SPS should have come out. Hindsight and all, but there were many people here questioning the downplaying of this event. Last night we were pretty confident the ULL would come through around 4-5PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lisse Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I dunno. The calling for investigations is /way/ extreme, but when were those warnings for DC finally issued? Around noon wasn't it? That was /way/ too late. People wanted to be leaving between 2 and 3 to be home by four. So there was a 3 hour window for Personnel offices to hear about the warning, investigate what was going on, make a decision and then filter that decision to their employees. You can't necessarily put it on the employees because not everyone has access to the internet/tv/radio at work. Even I, who can access the internet at work, don't hear about things until I get home unless I'm specifically looking for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I hear ya.. and I do appreciate that it is a tough job and I would never want that kind of pressure, but thats their job. As you said, the public needs to take responsibility as well, however if you were going by what you heard on tv/radio or weather.gov, 3-5" probably didn't sound too bad. The SPS came out around 1PM. You can't clear DC in 3 hours. There was tons of evidence late Tuesday and early this morning when that SPS should have come out. Hindsight and all, but there were many people here questioning the downplaying of this event. Last night we were pretty confident the ULL would come through around 4-5PM. SPS came out at around 10:58 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 If NOAA has an Inspector General, they need to investigate what happened during the last 24 hours at LWX. Literally millions of people have been severely impacted by their delayed reaction to the potential impact of this snowstorm. We can all hope that no one lost their lives because they were stranded in gridlock across the area. Somehow the people responsible for issuing warnings to the public dropped the ball big time. They refused to accept the mounting pile of evidence that this storm was going to impact the commute for the entire DC/MD/VA area. OPM only granted the 2-hr early dismissal of DC area feds after NWS issued the special weather statement which discussed the disaster of 2"/hr snow rates combined with evening rush. It was too little too late. There needs to be investigations and people need to be held accountable. I am not sure what if any influence we can wield, but I will post any contact info I find. I know it is a tough job of balancing being a chicken little or not barking loud enough. However even many mets here and elsewhere were wondering what in the world LWX was thinking. I believe if warned in advance, OPM would have used liberal leave + a even earlier closing to try and get as many people off the roads before the worst hit. Many other offices in the area follow the fed's decision. OK. I'll bite. I have mixed feelings about your position. I agree a warning should have been posted prior to the 11:00 news last night. I also agree the "professors" such as PSUHoffman (which, as you know, owned this storm and is it's namesake) and others like him, during the last 36 hours, noted the real potentials here and model trends. Putting my own bias aside as I love big snowstorms, I see your point that NWS should have hyped more, specifically, put out the warning before the 11:00 news last night based on the liklihood for "5" or more". But, there is another side of this. They were right - it did start as rain. And there was lull all day aside from the 3" gift this morning for some of us (I am in that group by the way :-) My point really is, NWS decisions affect the economy more that the Board opinion. A Watch was up. At what part of this does it then turn to the public to be viligent? And with the Warnings then in place, the Special Weather Statement was issued hours before the precipitation started, i.e., the widely reported 'mist' was basically all day so people went to work. If they didnt, economic $$$$$ lost . To a certain degree, if you didnt know something was coming and to be vigilent today, you've been living under a rock. I think people caught on the road did so at their own risk and peril. That is my stream of thought on that. Now, in closing, if you really want to do something about it, I would call the news media and make a story out of it. Get the Board here some press that the Internet Professors nailed it (I mean that in every sence as a complement to both actual mets and self-taught internet folk. It was a great storm. Adam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I won't comment on NCEP or NWS because they did have the watch out more than a day in advance--and had a WWA and WSW up in plenty of time--but the TV weathercasters dropped the ball big time on this one. They should be investigated and fired and "futurecast" products should be dropped immediately. Any non-met tv weather-casters should immediately be replaced by real mets ASAP. End of discussion. The simple fact is most people get their info from TV weathercasters--and some had rain up until last night. What they were looking at nobody will never fully know--but some mix of critical thicknesses, MOS, and foo-foo meteorology likely lead to those clown forecasts produced by the TV weathercasters pretending to be meteorologists (not the good ones--and it sounds like a few stood out from the rest--kudos to them). They gave a brand new meaning to "snowpocalypse". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I won't comment on NCEP or NWS because they did have the watch out more than a day in advance--and had a WWA and WSW up in plenty of time--but the TV weathercasters dropped the ball big time on this one. They should be investigated and fired and "futurecast" products should be dropped immediately. Any non-met tv weather-casters should immediately be replaced by real mets ASAP. End of discussion. The simple fact is most people get their info from TV weathercasters--and some had rain up until last night. What they were looking at nobody will never fully know--but some mix of critical thicknesses, MOS, and foo-foo meteorology likely lead to those clown forecasts produced by the TV weathercasters pretending to be meteorologists (not the good ones--and it sounds like a few stood out from the rest--kudos to them). They gave a brand new meaning to "snowpocalypse". I agree. If I were a TV meterologist, I would devote 30 seconds to my weather segment to talk about all the model suites and trends of the models, i.e., sum up what this "Board" is thinking based on the intelligence chatter here on the Board.. I would get technical with model names and SREFS and GGEMS and all that, and then i would promote a facebook page or better yet a spot on the tv 's website where i would produce educational videos on what it all means. I think that would make ratings go way up while driving people to the website. People want to know what the real deal is. Do you realize i am a hero on my facebook because i always nail what will happen because I just interpret the chatter and make bold predictions when warranted. And when i dont do it, all I get is emails asking me whats gonna happen. One of you tv folks should try it and see if it works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I won't comment on NCEP or NWS because they did have the watch out more than a day in advance--and had a WWA and WSW up in plenty of time--but the TV weathercasters dropped the ball big time on this one. They should be investigated and fired and "futurecast" products should be dropped immediately. Any non-met tv weather-casters should immediately be replaced by real mets ASAP. End of discussion. The simple fact is most people get their info from TV weathercasters--and some had rain up until last night. What they were looking at nobody will never fully know--but some mix of critical thicknesses, MOS, and foo-foo meteorology likely lead to those clown forecasts produced by the TV weathercasters pretending to be meteorologists (not the good ones--and it sounds like a few stood out from the rest--kudos to them). They gave a brand new meaning to "snowpocalypse". TV mets were TERRIBLE with this storm. Shockingly awful. LWX was playing catchup for awhile, but they did alright. The media mets consistently lowballed snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katabatic Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 One of our employees left at 4:30...and walked in her door at 3:25 AM. We didn't close earlier due to the poor forecast publically available via TV...despite my pleas based on information from this board and the SPS. All we can do is learn and make better decisions next time due to the enormity of such forecasts. This is especially true for the TV mets who are unfortunately the face of weather for 99% of the general public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 What about the cities and road crews? I know the raod crews threw down salt for less accumulations than what was forecast. Why weren't they out there in the morning just in case? It was a slushy wet snow, so at least the salt could've helped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I won't comment on NCEP or NWS because they did have the watch out more than a day in advance--and had a WWA and WSW up in plenty of time--but the TV weathercasters dropped the ball big time on this one. They should be investigated and fired and "futurecast" products should be dropped immediately. Any non-met tv weather-casters should immediately be replaced by real mets ASAP. End of discussion. The simple fact is most people get their info from TV weathercasters--and some had rain up until last night. What they were looking at nobody will never fully know--but some mix of critical thicknesses, MOS, and foo-foo meteorology likely lead to those clown forecasts produced by the TV weathercasters pretending to be meteorologists (not the good ones--and it sounds like a few stood out from the rest--kudos to them). They gave a brand new meaning to "snowpocalypse". LOLZ. I always tell my friends that The Weather Channel and local stations are the last place to get timely, accurate weather information. I sent out an email yesterday to my office around noon telling folks they needed to leave at the sign of the first frozen precip, but no later than 4 PM. I left at 4 PM and told folks who where still planning to stay until 5-6 PM that they would pay dearly. They did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 If NOAA has an Inspector General, they need to investigate what happened during the last 24 hours at LWX. Literally millions of people have been severely impacted by their delayed reaction to the potential impact of this snowstorm. We can all hope that no one lost their lives because they were stranded in gridlock across the area. Somehow the people responsible for issuing warnings to the public dropped the ball big time. They refused to accept the mounting pile of evidence that this storm was going to impact the commute for the entire DC/MD/VA area. OPM only granted the 2-hr early dismissal of DC area feds after NWS issued the special weather statement which discussed the disaster of 2"/hr snow rates combined with evening rush. It was too little too late. There needs to be investigations and people need to be held accountable. I am not sure what if any influence we can wield, but I will post any contact info I find. I know it is a tough job of balancing being a chicken little or not barking loud enough. However even many mets here and elsewhere were wondering what in the world LWX was thinking. I believe if warned in advance, OPM would have used liberal leave + a even earlier closing to try and get as many people off the roads before the worst hit. Many other offices in the area follow the fed's decision. meteorology is not an exact science... they cant be held accountable because of the weather, you can have all the technology you want but storms will still surprise you. im sure the NWS is trying to be as accurate as they can be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cp63 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 One of our employees left at 4:30...and walked in her door at 3:25 AM. We didn't close earlier due to the poor forecast publically available via TV...despite my pleas based on information from this board and the SPS. All we can do is learn and make better decisions next time due to the enormity of such forecasts. This is especially true for the TV mets who are unfortunately the face of weather for 99% of the general public. Took me 7 hours to go 7 miles in fairfax because of tons of down wires,road closures due to trees down,and a amazing amount of morons who either ran out of gas or decided it was perfectly okay to just abandon their vehicle in the middle of a major highway..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 TWC knew it was coming to have enough time to put cantore up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kas80 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 The real culprit is poorly planned urban sprawl with inadequate highways/public transportation systems coupled with way too many employees located in a comparatively small space. Not disagreeing that local mets left a lot to be desired and that the special weather statement came out a bit late however, what would happen in a true emergency with no advance warning and a need to get everyone out in a quick amount of time? That's what is truly worrisome about the entire situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JeanineJ Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I did the same at my office, some folks heeded the warning, and some scoffed at it. Those that stayed until 6 did pay dearly. Some folks just don't 'get it', it's the stupidity of the public. They went out at 4pm and saw rain, and said, this thing is a rain event. Paid no attention to what the experts were saying here. What can you do? LOLZ. I always tell my friends that The Weather Channel and local stations are the last place to get timely, accurate weather information. I sent out an email yesterday to my office around noon telling folks they needed to leave at the sign of the first frozen precip, but no later than 4 PM. I left at 4 PM and told folks who where still planning to stay until 5-6 PM that they would pay dearly. They did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbj5d Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 TV mets were TERRIBLE with this storm. Shockingly awful. LWX was playing catchup for awhile, but they did alright. The media mets consistently lowballed snow totals. As it was mentioned earlier, getting "caught up" before the end just isn't good enough when it takes hours to plan and coordinate a rush hour the likes of DC. This city takes 6+ hours to clear out on a sunny day (early group starts leaving at 3, late groups don't hit the road until 6 or even later then add on commute time). Starting that 2 hours early still puts people on the road at 7pm or later. You see how good that worked last night. 66 was a parking lot until past midnight. The GW parkway until past 4am. Add on child care and other responsibilities, this town needs at least 12 hour lead time. LWX missed many of the snow totals on the low end, and as mentioned, waited until late morning to really start sounding the horn loud about what could be happening. One of our employees left at 4:30...and walked in her door at 3:25 AM. We didn't close earlier due to the poor forecast publicly available via TV...despite my pleas based on information from this board and the SPS. All we can do is learn and make better decisions next time due to the enormity of such forecasts. This is especially true for the TV mets who are unfortunately the face of weather for 99% of the general public. This is where things get dicey. Is it the media or NWS's job to get people out of work early, or is it the businesses. It is eventually the federal govt. or individual employers responsibilies to accept the hit of lost productivity in order to get everyone home safely and efficently. Though even then, is it an employers responsibility that employees chose to live 10, 20, 30 or more miles away from work? In the end, it will have to be a combination of all of these factors. The Weather Service and mets more willing to warn people (even if at times, that results in a missed forecast such as Dec 26), employers have to be more willing to allow employers to value their safety over the bottom line, and employees have to be more aware of their situation. But I think some of the stories from last night are so egregious that they could actually bring about some meaningful change, so I don't want this to just be swept away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 TV mets were TERRIBLE with this storm. Shockingly awful. LWX was playing catchup for awhile, but they did alright. The media mets consistently lowballed snow totals. This was a tough forecast up until the day before or night before. Surface temps were marginal and the models didn't lock into the bullseye right away. But WUSA9 did a great job with this storm I think as they usually do. And for LWX...sure they could have done better, but everyone knew there would be snow during rush hour. It's up to the people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 There are six versions of stupid/annoying here: 1. the mental cases that want more watches and warnings so they can get out of school or work 2. the dummies that fail to consider that the same NAM that fooled myself and others three days out by suggesting the storm would go warm and inland, nailed the amount and location of the intense snow 18 to 24 hrs. before the event. LWX verified "good enough" considering such a difficult to predict event. LWX, like all NWS offices have to maintain serious verification stats and they fine tune their forecast products to maintain good verification stats; it is a team effort to keep their quality high. 3. the Maryland Department of Highways that was too freaking cheap to put down snow melting chemicals during the afternoon because "the rain could wash it way". 4. some people will always get caught because can't or won't plan properly 5. the dummies that discount the fact that the models depict much more snow than we ever really receive 6. TV mets that can't think for themselves and have the guts to pull the trigger when they get the insight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 There are six versions of stupid/annoying here: 1. the mental cases that want more watches and warnings so they can get out of school or work 2. they dummies that fail to consider that the same NAM that fooled myself and others three days out by suggesting the storm would go warm and inland, nailed the amount and location of the intense snow 18 to 24 hrs. before the event. LWX verified "good enough" considering such a difficult to predict event. LWX, like all NWS offices have to maintain serious verification stats and they fine tune their forecast products to maintain good verification stats; it is a team effort to keep their quality high. 3. the Maryland Department of Highways that was too freaking cheap to put down snow melting chemicals during the afternoon because "the rain could wash it way". 4. some people will always get caught because can't or won't plan properly 5. the dummies that discount the fact that the models depict much more snow than we ever really receive 6. TV mets that can't think for themselves and have the guts to pull the trigger when they get the insight You'd think people would proofread their posts - especially the sentences where they call other people dummies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 You'd think people would proofread their posts - especially the sentences where they call other people dummies. I get a headache from proofreading...where is there a problem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 I get a headache from proofreading...where is there a problem? hahah just messin' around. "they dummies" EDIT: unless it was ebonics, then it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 hahah just messin' around. "they dummies" EDIT: unless it was ebonics, then it's right. Yes, I see. I thought you were criticizing my analysis. Spell checker loves they dummies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 TV mets were TERRIBLE with this storm. Shockingly awful. LWX was playing catchup for awhile, but they did alright. The media mets consistently lowballed snow totals. I wonder how many so-called TV mets actually have degrees in meteorology? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltimoreguy Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Some folks just don't 'get it', it's the stupidity of the public. They went out at 4pm and saw rain, and said, this thing is a rain event. Paid no attention to what the experts were saying here. My memory is that based on your posts here around 4 p.m. yesterday, you were one of those people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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