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NYC Area January 26-27 Bomb Discussion and OBS Part 4


earthlight

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The visibility here has dive bombed...maybe 100 yards, maybe less...house across the street is dissappearing. Its mostly snow, but theres still plenty of pingers mixed...thats how heavy this stuff is. Can hear the wind constantly now too.

Same thing with me here. I'm very close to Smithtown(probably 3-4 miles) How far are you from Stony Brook Road?

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What's the greatest amount of snow to fall in a 30 day period in NYC? I'm guessing that this storm should beat the previous record by a pretty good margin.

Probably last February. We'll miss because December 26 and January 26 are actually 31 days apart.
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

1025 PM EST WED JAN 26 2011

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CONSOLIDATING INTO A 992 MB SURFACE LOW

ABOUT 150 MILES SSE OF MTP AT 3Z...IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LOW MOVING

OFFSHORE AND BEING IN THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF A 120+ KNOT JET

STREAK...THIS LOW WILL TRACK TO S OF NOVA SCOTIA BY 12Z THURSDAY.

AS ISALLOBARIC FLOW CONTINUES TO BACK WINDS TO THE N...WILL SEE

ALL AREAS CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM W TO E. THE SOUTH FORK OF LONG

ISLAND WILL TAKE THE LONGEST...WITH A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE THERE

UNTIL AROUND 7Z.

HEAVY SNOW ACROSS SE PA...WILL TRACK NE INTO THE REGION OVER THE

NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. 00Z NAM/21Z SREF ARE CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER

MODEL RUNS IN HAVING THIS BAND TRACK FROM NYC INTO SE CT. BASED ON

PREVIOUS SNOW EARLIER TODAY...AND ANOTHER .6-1.0 INCHES OF QPF

EXPECTED (.3-.7 FAR NW). THE ADDITIONAL SNOW FALL IS IN RESPONSE TO

VERY STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC AND QUASI-GEOSTROPHIC

FORCING.

AS A RESULT HAVE UPPED SNOW TOTALS UP SLIGHTLY. THE MAIN IMPACT

IS ACROSS ORANGE AND PUTNAM...WHERE NOW EXPECT 6-10 INCHES OF

SNOW...INCREASING THE AVERAGE THERE TO 8 INCHES...AND

NECESSITATING INCREASING THEM TO A WARNING. ELSEWHERE EXACT 8-14

INCHES OF SNOW...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG/EAST OF A NYC-HVN-ORH

LINE WITH ACCUMULATIONS TEMPERED SOMEWHAT OVER THE

SOUTH SHORE/TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND WHERE THE MIX WILL HOLD ON

LONGER. SNOW FALL RATES OF 2-3" AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND

EAST OF THE NYC-HVN-ORH LINE...WITH 1-2" AN HOUR RATES POSSIBLE

FURTHER WEST. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY

UNDERNEATH THE CORE OF THE BAND.

SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM W TO E STARTING AROUND 3AM...WITH SNOW

ENDING OVER SE CT BY AROUND SUNRISE.

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