The Iceman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Still learning to read the models, but where do you see ice at on it? not this run exactly(GFS is likely too cold, a bias it has) but the track of the low is a notorious ice set up(and it ends as ice for sure this run as 850's get above 0c). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 GEFS remains further south of the OP. 1.00 QPF line in south central PA. Everyone else is at least 0.75. Current wx: Light snow with big flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 @ 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Sorry to hear. My sympathies. Thanks. Co-workers wife passed, just like your loss did, in her sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 My condolences go out to you Jamie and Sauss for your losses! Nothing worse than losing a family member, 40 is super young to have a heart attack, but as strange as it maybe my buddy had a heart attack at the age of 26 in the marines, had to come home lucky they revived him. seems like more and more people are having heart attacks the younger they are. Back on topic, this storm still looks perfect for most of PA with .75-1" of QPF, southern areas of PA have to watch for a bad icing event. I'm still worried this thing may cut further into the lakes than modeled currently, hopefully the track stays put. Not to mention we just had 2 people die recently from a local college bout 20 minutes away, they were both 21 and 22 and died from heart attacks from that stupid drink four loco! My buddy above had a heart attack unrelated to energy drinks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 that is a wicked ice setup for SC PA. after the V-Day storm from a couple years ago, i have had my share of ice thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 alright well off to sunny new orleans...no snow down there(i hope )...hopefully this threat still looks good when i come back sunday night. have a good weekend everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 alright well off to sunny new orleans...no snow down there(i hope )...hopefully this threat still looks good when i come back sunday night. have a good weekend everyone! BEADS BEADS BEADS BEADS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 GFS Bufkit gives me 13". Already got 1.5" today. Winter is turning around baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Howdy all- first off sorry to read about the recent losses among the forum gang. Also, I put myself on AWx quarantine so I could get something accomplished at work, but what's the timing on this next week threat? I have something important in Lancaster Monday night, and don't need some sloppy mess ruining it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Howdy all- first off sorry to read about the recent losses among the forum gang. Also, I put myself on AWx quarantine so I could get something accomplished at work, but what's the timing on this next week threat? I have something important in Lancaster Monday night, and don't need some sloppy mess ruining it! From what I can tell it looks like it is gonna start Wednesday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 From what I can tell it looks like it is gonna start Wednesday afternoon. thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 EURO quite far west and warm. All the way up to I-78 sees plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 EURO quite far west and warm. All the way up to I-78 sees plain rain. Euro usually has this issue with holding back energy then over amplifying things. I wouldn't doubt that's what it could be doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 By hr126 everyone has changed over to plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 While GFS dumps snow on PA... Euro/GEM/UKMET all west/warm and mostly rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 While GFS dumps snow on PA... Euro/GEM/UKMET all west/warm and mostly rain GGEM? Try again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 GGEM? Try again. Ukmet too. Not mainly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Ukmet too. Not mainly rain. What was the UK's track:? Didn't see it. How were temps/precip/etc.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 What was the UK's track:? Didn't see it. How were temps/precip/etc.? Basically like GFS track. IDK about the rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 At least the models are showing a storm. We can always figure the precipitation closer to the event. Looking at 10 forecast it is showing Wed. high 24 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 The things I'll be watching over the coming days with this storm: The southern branch energy will need to get out of the SW US relatively quickly. If it doesn't, it will phase with the northern branch energy coming down from the Rockies (like the Euro has been showing) and likely come up to the west, giving us a mix and rain. The thing that will prevent this from cutting way west is the massive area of high pressure (>1050 mb on some models) sinking through the Northern Plains states. This will help keep any surface low farther south. Best case scenario would probably be a GFS-like track that it has shown from the past few runs, but the concern there would be how strong the primary storm is -- that could introduce some mixing issues if it holds on too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Euro usually holds back SW's so until it gets some other guidance agreeing with it I feel it's off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Euro usually holds back SW's so until it gets some other guidance agreeing with it I feel it's off. lets hope its wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Euro usually holds back SW's so until it gets some other guidance agreeing with it I feel it's off. I was just comparing the 00z Euro to the 12z GFS to look at this. Timing of the southern branch feature is almost exactly the same -- it's the northern branch that seems to cause the difference. The northern branch feature is faster and farther south on the Euro, which initiates the phase and pulls this west. The ridge is still off the West Coast, so this is going to try to cut west. I'm not so sure it's the usual Euro problem with holding energy back. It looked pretty progressive on the 00z run up until the phase, but that looked to be initiated by the faster northern branch energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWxJr Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Been snowing moderately here in Carlise since about 9:30...nothing stuck to roads or sidewalks but looks like about an inch on the snow....really hope this storm ends up snow!!! We don't need ice or rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 yea I was wrong about UKMET, not as far west as I thought but further inland than 0z was. (sorry didnt realize last frame was still from yesterdays run). I shouldnt have said mostly rain but with an early phase and low coming north that far west of us, it is not a good set up for PA in terms of snow. North central pa might be ok for the most part but southern would mix/ turn to rain. 0z will probably end up completely different but 12z for those models are not what we want at all (except GFS). Euro is def too warm this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Guys how do you post maps? I have it saved in my pictures..Its my first call map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Guys how do you post maps? I have it saved in my pictures..Its my first call map When you reply to a comment or click on "Use Full Editor" it gives you an option to attach a file Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Well unfortunately with this storm I think its going to give areas of southern PA a messy storm, while areas that normally do good in these situations north of I-80 might be ok. Its tough because I can see this map having to shift more to the NW if this storm does decide to cut in the Lakes, but as I see it now this is my first call. I don't make maps very often, but feel free to give me some feedback, negative or good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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