Eskimo Joe Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I-95 now closed southbound by airport due to jackknifed tractor trailer. http://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/2011/02/01/jackknifed-tractor-trailer-closes-southbound-i-95/ Wow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Glaze of ice on everything here. Still 29. I think if it stays below 31 today the chances for a major ice storm go way up. Goes 32-33 still moderate. Above 34 probably nothing much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 My gut tells me down my way we'll be all right tomorrow morning. I'm at 27 now, if we can get up just 3 or 4 more degrees today, I highly doubt temps fall at all tonight. In fact, they may go up a couple of more degrees. If we are at 30 or above when the main slug of precip arrives, icing shouldn't be that big of a deal with the possible exception of some trees and such. I would think roads would be in decent shape. If we were in the low 20's now, then it would be looking much more ominous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I-95 now closed southbound by airport due to jackknifed tractor trailer. http://philadelphia....outhbound-i-95/ Wow... It's been wild the past couple of winters down that way. That area specifically has been hammered with these storms. 2 of the top 3 snows of all time, 2 more well over a foot, and from what I understand, icing this morning that was worse than what we had. South Philly has been on a role... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 My gut tells me down my way we'll be all right tomorrow morning. I'm at 27 now, if we can get up just 3 or 4 more degrees today, I highly doubt temps fall at all tonight. In fact, they may go up a couple of more degrees. If we are at 30 or above when the main slug of precip arrives, icing shouldn't be that big of a deal with the possible exception of some trees and such. I would think roads would be in decent shape. If we were in the low 20's now, then it would be looking much more ominous. It's going to be close. I think if we stay below 32 today it will drop to about 28-30 tonight and since the suns not out the ice should build up a good bit. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Hi all, I don't think we saw one single flake here in Maytown. Precip moved in last evening as sleet and stayed as a mix of sleet/freezing rain throughout the first event. Roads around my area were fine this morning, though there is a 9 car wreck on 283 east just a few miles from where I live. My driveway was horrid though, and being that's it on a hill, I could not stand on it without holding onto to something. I just slid right down the hill... my driveway is the same i just got done salting. I hoped for a least some snow under the ice which makes cleanup easier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Any ones temp falling? I am down .5 deg in last 25mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 my driveway is the same i just got done salting. I hoped for a least some snow under the ice which makes cleanup easier Yeah, I was a bit surprised we started right off with sleet last night. I was hoping for the same thing. Roads in our area were pretty good this morning. With all of the salt down now, I think once we get past our walks tomorrow morning, we'll be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 It's going to be close. I think if we stay below 32 today it will drop to about 28-30 tonight and since the suns not out the ice should build up a good bit. We shall see. the nam keeps MDT freezing , in the high 20's until tomorrow. I think where i'm at in Cumberland County, we stay colder then at MDT. We will most likely still have to deal with the ice, maybe just not as much as we thought yesterday. We still have FRZN drizzle in Harrisburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 My trusty fuddruckers thermometer outside my office window says 28. Interesting thing about York is that temps are taken at the Thomasville airport which is in a bowl. Notoriously 2-5 degrees colder than most of the area, and on nights with radiational cooling, it gets drastically different than surrounding. Just good to know for anyone in the area trying to figure out what temps are doing in SCent PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Swiped this baby from the Upstate NY/North Country thread this model nailed the overnight precip FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 It's going to be close. I think if we stay below 32 today it will drop to about 28-30 tonight and since the suns not out the ice should build up a good bit. We shall see. Just curious, but why do you think temps fall off a bit tonight? I would think with such a strong storm to our west and the warm air flooding in aloft, the heavier precip will help mix the relatively warmer air to the surface. Maybe I'm way off on that, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Yeah, I was a bit surprised we started right off with sleet last night. I was hoping for the same thing. Roads in our area were pretty good this morning. With all of the salt down now, I think once we get past our walks tomorrow morning, we'll be fine. I'll be smarter tonight and park at the bottom of my driveway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 the nam keeps MDT freezing , in the high 20's until tomorrow. I think where i'm at in Cumberland County, we stay colder then at MDT. We will most likely still have to deal with the ice, maybe just not as much as we thought yesterday. We still have FRZN drizzle in Harrisburg. Yeah, bro, you might be locked in ice until April.... Seriously though, in these set ups, your situation will likely be more dire than around my parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Just curious, but why do you think temps fall off a bit tonight? I would think with such a strong storm to our west and the warm air flooding in aloft, the heavier precip will help mix the relatively warmer air to the surface. Maybe I'm way off on that, though. Cause with the high to the north and snow cover temps should fall off a little. May temp has actually fallen today as well. Hit 29.2 at 8:45 and now down 28.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 One thing to keep an eye on to determine which model will win out is wind direction throughout the day today and tomorrow. NAM has been keeping near surface winds mostly easterly for today and tomorrow while GFS has shifted the wind to more southerly, hence warmer surface temps than NAM. I decided to take a look at 0z runs of both models to compare them (just as example) to early morning obs... NAM has winds for MDT out of the east and between 5-7kts from 12z today to 0z. NAM also has 2m temp at 27 at 15z and only reaching 31 today... it does increase visibility throughout the day from about 1 to 10 statute miles today... GFS has winds more south easterly at 12 and 15z then light and variable wind until 0z. GFS has 2m temp for MDT up to 31, reaching 33F and keeps visibility less than a mile all day. Comparing that to obs from 12-15z so far, winds have been reported as calm with visibility between 1-2 miles (similar to gfs)... though 15z temp is 27 (similar to NAM). Next it will be interesting to see how 12z runs compare to actual obs to see which may be handling certain features better or if they are even handling anything this close to the event at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 i'm at 26F right now, think we only get up to 30-31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Yeah, bro, you might be locked in ice until April.... Seriously though, in these set ups, your situation will likely be more dire than around my parts. aren't you a ray of sunshine today..lol OT. My daughters 15th B-day today. She was born in a snow storm ( winter of 96) and now this today. cracks me up, i call her eye of the storm, lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 20.5*F right now. Forecast high is 26. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 20.5*F right now. Forecast high is 26. You are in for one very long night and day tomorrow with that temp. Good luck... Hopefully you get more snow/sleet than anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 My trusty fuddruckers thermometer outside my office window says 28. Interesting thing about York is that temps are taken at the Thomasville airport which is in a bowl. Notoriously 2-5 degrees colder than most of the area, and on nights with radiational cooling, it gets drastically different than surrounding. Just good to know for anyone in the area trying to figure out what temps are doing in SCent PA. lol, no doubt. Some clear nights THV is as cold as Bradford. Really skews records. It's 28 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 One thing to keep an eye on to determine which model will win out is wind direction throughout the day today and tomorrow. NAM has been keeping near surface winds mostly easterly for today and tomorrow while GFS has shifted the wind to more southerly, hence warmer surface temps than NAM. I decided to take a look at 0z runs of both models to compare them (just as example) to early morning obs... NAM has winds for MDT out of the east and between 5-7kts from 12z today to 0z. NAM also has 2m temp at 27 at 15z and only reaching 31 today... it does increase visibility throughout the day from about 1 to 10 statute miles today... GFS has winds more south easterly at 12 and 15z then light and variable wind until 0z. GFS has 2m temp for MDT up to 31, reaching 33F and keeps visibility less than a mile all day. Comparing that to obs from 12-15z so far, winds have been reported as calm with visibility between 1-2 miles (similar to gfs)... though 15z temp is 27 (similar to NAM). Next it will be interesting to see how 12z runs compare to actual obs to see which may be handling certain features better or if they are even handling anything this close to the event at all. That is interesting information. I can tell you with all certainty that here in Lancaster county the visibility is less than that right now. Like MDT, right now I am right on the river's edge about 25 miles southeast of MDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Just curious, but why do you think temps fall off a bit tonight? I would think with such a strong storm to our west and the warm air flooding in aloft, the heavier precip will help mix the relatively warmer air to the surface. Maybe I'm way off on that, though. Many factors come into play here. First a weak area of Low Pressure that just moved by will help advect air from the NE down east of the Appalachians. Also, watch the pressure tendency across Michigan, southern Ontario, NY and northern New England. At present, the air pressure is rising based on surface obs in MI and southern Ontario. This suggests that the High Pressure from the northern plains is sprawling eastward and funneling cold air south into the Mid-Atlantic. This sets the boundary for your Rn-Sn line and south of that front, the cold dense surface air will hang tough in the valleys. Add to that the fact that the normal diurnal cooling of low/no solar radiation time will be occurring late afternoon & overnight as well. The modeling is very useful, no doubt. But I believe we need to understand the density of the low level cold and see where the weak surface air flow, guided by the various pressure systems, wants to be. I have a hard time believing that the greater Harrisburg area will see temps much above freezing if the pressures begin to increase in northern New York and northern New England this afternoon. I fear a major freezing rain event in the lower and middle Susquehanna Valley. Just my humble opinion..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Cause with the high to the north and snow cover temps should fall off a little. May temp has actually fallen today as well. Hit 29.2 at 8:45 and now down 28.5. Okay, thanks. My memory seems to think that in situations like this in the past, at least here in Lancaster, temps hold steady or slowly rise. Perhaps you being much further inland may make a difference? (And west of the first mountain front?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Many factors come into play here. First a weak area of Low Pressure that just moved by will help advect air from the NE down east of the Appalachians. Also, watch the pressure tendency across Michigan, southern Ontario, NY and northern New England. At present, the air pressure is rising based on surface obs in MI and southern Ontario. This suggests that the High Pressure from the northern plains is sprawling eastward and funneling cold air south into the Mid-Atlantic. This sets the boundary for your Rn-Sn line and south of that front, the cold dense surface air will hang tough in the valleys. Add to that the fact that the normal diurnal cooling of low/no solar radiation time will be occurring late afternoon & overnight as well. The modeling is very useful, no doubt. But I believe we need to understand the density of the low level cold and see where the weak surface air flow, guided by the various pressure systems, wants to be. I have a hard time believing that the greater Harrisburg area will see temps much above freezing if the pressures begin to increase in northern New York and northern New England this afternoon. I fear a major freezing rain event in the lower and middle Susquehanna Valley. Just my humble opinion..... wow, very cool info, thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Many factors come into play here. First a weak area of Low Pressure that just moved by will help advect air from the NE down east of the Appalachians. Also, watch the pressure tendency across Michigan, southern Ontario, NY and northern New England. At present, the air pressure is rising based on surface obs in MI and southern Ontario. This suggests that the High Pressure from the northern plains is sprawling eastward and funneling cold air south into the Mid-Atlantic. This sets the boundary for your Rn-Sn line and south of that front, the cold dense surface air will hang tough in the valleys. Add to that the fact that the normal diurnal cooling of low/no solar radiation time will be occurring late afternoon & overnight as well. The modeling is very useful, no doubt. But I believe we need to understand the density of the low level cold and see where the weak surface air flow, guided by the various pressure systems, wants to be. I have a hard time believing that the greater Harrisburg area will see temps much above freezing if the pressures begin to increase in northern New York and northern New England this afternoon. I fear a major freezing rain event in the lower and middle Susquehanna Valley. Just my humble opinion..... Thanks... Hey, at 45, I am still very much a novice. All of you guys are awesome. I love to learn just like all of you and I'm not afraid to admit that I don't know that much. I go mostly off my memory and what I recall happening over all these years in the past. A lot of the technical stuff is lost on me, but I appreciate everyone's effort to take the time and explain WHY or WHY NOT things happen the way they do. Good stuff going on here today, folks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 One thing to keep an eye on to determine which model will win out is wind direction throughout the day today and tomorrow. NAM has been keeping near surface winds mostly easterly for today and tomorrow while GFS has shifted the wind to more southerly, hence warmer surface temps than NAM. I decided to take a look at 0z runs of both models to compare them (just as example) to early morning obs... NAM has winds for MDT out of the east and between 5-7kts from 12z today to 0z. NAM also has 2m temp at 27 at 15z and only reaching 31 today... it does increase visibility throughout the day from about 1 to 10 statute miles today... GFS has winds more south easterly at 12 and 15z then light and variable wind until 0z. GFS has 2m temp for MDT up to 31, reaching 33F and keeps visibility less than a mile all day. Comparing that to obs from 12-15z so far, winds have been reported as calm with visibility between 1-2 miles (similar to gfs)... though 15z temp is 27 (similar to NAM). Next it will be interesting to see how 12z runs compare to actual obs to see which may be handling certain features better or if they are even handling anything this close to the event at all. Well said. Visibility, however, can indicate many variables as I'm sure you are very aware. Pressures and surface wind directions will determine the ultimate outcome of the ice storm tonight. I guess I'm too old school relying on the modeling like many of today's trained meteorologists do. Surface obs are vital in today's/tonights "potentially severe" weather situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 lol, no doubt. Some clear nights THV is as cold as Bradford. Really skews records. It's 28 here. Yesterday morning Lancaster was 12, Harrisburg was 14, and York was... 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Many factors come into play here. First a weak area of Low Pressure that just moved by will help advect air from the NE down east of the Appalachians. Also, watch the pressure tendency across Michigan, southern Ontario, NY and northern New England. At present, the air pressure is rising based on surface obs in MI and southern Ontario. This suggests that the High Pressure from the northern plains is sprawling eastward and funneling cold air south into the Mid-Atlantic. This sets the boundary for your Rn-Sn line and south of that front, the cold dense surface air will hang tough in the valleys. Add to that the fact that the normal diurnal cooling of low/no solar radiation time will be occurring late afternoon & overnight as well. The modeling is very useful, no doubt. But I believe we need to understand the density of the low level cold and see where the weak surface air flow, guided by the various pressure systems, wants to be. I have a hard time believing that the greater Harrisburg area will see temps much above freezing if the pressures begin to increase in northern New York and northern New England this afternoon. I fear a major freezing rain event in the lower and middle Susquehanna Valley. Just my humble opinion..... This sums up my thoughts pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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