Santa Clause Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I have a gut feeling we're going to get quite a bit of ZR up this way...Globals show mainly liquid and hi res are trending warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 stay safe guys. Ice sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 GFS actually got warmer than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 GFS actually got warmer than 18z. Another storm fades away inside 24hrs. Same old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 GFS actually got warmer than 18z. Well this is such a disapointment go figure thats just how our winter has gone. I guess there goes any of our chance of seeing mostly snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 0Z NAM GIVES ME 8.5 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE FIRST ROUND.(sorry for the caps) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 People need to get a grip. GFS does not handle low level cold well given the lower resolution. With a high pressure to the north, snow pack, and ice accretion occuring at night, I doubt areas along and north of the turnpike get above freezing in this scenario until after the precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 but it also gives me 1"+ of freezing rain for the 2nd batch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 GFS looks screwy anyway with bumping the cold north like that. It gets Rhe precip out a lot faster too. My final call for MDT: 2" snow/sleet and .4" zr on everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 just looking at the latest grid numbers briefly (00Z run, ABE, IPT, AVP, and DUJ, GFS and NAM models); when is the governor in PA going to announce he'll be closing the interstates to all traffic because of the potential for crippling ice? because if he doesn't for tuesday night into wednesday, i don't care if people are trying to get to the knob including phil himself, they'll be lucky they don't kill themselves trying to get up or down it, imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Another storm fades away inside 24hrs. Same old. Well this is such a disapointment go figure thats just how our winter has gone. I guess there goes any of our chance of seeing mostly snow The NAM is cold, but because the GFS warmed up you guys are throwing in the towel? Sheesh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 just looking at the latest grid numbers briefly (00Z run, ABE, IPT, AVP, and DUJ, GFS and NAM models); when is the governor in PA going to announce he'll be closing the interstates to all traffic because of the potential for crippling ice? because if he doesn't for tuesday night into wednesday, i don't care if people are trying to get to the knob including phil himself, they'll be lucky they don't kill themselves trying to get up or down it, imho. In your cursory glance, do you feel MDT escapes the brunt of ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 The NAM is cold, but because the GFS warmed up you guys are throwing in the towel? Sheesh... NAM is not cold here 34 degrees this run. Previous runs I did not get above 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Since the models have been trending warmer, I think "true central PA" is more likely to see a majority ZR over IP now. I know this is going against what I said earlier, but it is hard to ignore the SREFs, NAM, and GFS which all give the region major ice accretion. Places at the southern border of PA still look to get significant ZR, but I believe at a decent amount of the second batch will fall with surface temperatures above freezing. One thing to take note: there will be a solid layer of snow/sleet/ice on the ground almost everywhere when the surface goes above freezing. The heaviest of the precip will fall between 6z and 12z Wed, which is basically dark. So with no aid from the sun, and a cold ground, I would think ice could continue to accumulate (or at least still be an issue) even in 32.5-33.0 degrees if it is fairly light. Obviously the harder the precip, the easier it will run off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Since the models have been trending warmer, I think "true central PA" is more likely to see a majority ZR over IP now. I know this is going against what I said earlier, but it is hard to ignore the SREFs, NAM, and GFS which all give the region major ice accretion. Places at the southern border of PA still look to get significant ZR, but I believe at a decent amount of the second batch will fall with surface temperatures above freezing. One thing to take note: there will be a solid layer of snow/sleet/ice on the ground almost everywhere when the surface goes above freezing. The heaviest of the precip will fall between 6z and 12z Wed, which is basically dark. So with no aid from the sun, and a cold ground, I would think ice could continue to accumulate (or at least still be an issue) even in 32.5-33.0 degrees if it is fairly light. Obviously the harder the precip, the easier it will run off. Not a trend just yet since last runs were colder at 18Z. If 6Z gets even warmer or is the same then ya it's a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 The NAM is cold, but because the GFS warmed up you guys are throwing in the towel? Sheesh... I agree, the resolution of the GFS is too broad to catch most of the topography and the cold air damming. The NAM almost always is better in these situations because it does a much better job of banking the cold against the mountains and keeping the valleys colder. I still expect a lot of ice, especially east of Route 219 and north of Route 22. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 In your cursory glance, do you feel MDT escapes the brunt of ice? not sure they do. nam says no, gfs says yes but barely (bringing about a worse driving scenario of water on top of ice). this is going to go down to the wire on who gets it bad. but someone's going to have to make the call tomorrow evening based on what's being observed, lest they have another nightmare like feb 14, 2007. i remember the night of the event too well. things were going as planned, then everybody started seeing the sleet and freezing rain several hours before they were supposed to, and everyone went bezerk, expect for penndot who should have closed 78 down but didn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 if i do lose my power i hope i have it back before the superbowl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 just looking at the latest grid numbers briefly (00Z run, ABE, IPT, AVP, and DUJ, GFS and NAM models); when is the governor in PA going to announce he'll be closing the interstates to all traffic because of the potential for crippling ice? because if he doesn't for tuesday night into wednesday, i don't care if people are trying to get to the knob including phil himself, they'll be lucky they don't kill themselves trying to get up or down it, imho. i was just up there today and when i was driving by the vendor area where they were setting up i was thinking " i wonder if they know what they are in for?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I agree, the resolution of the GFS is too broad to catch most of the topography and the cold air damming. The NAM almost always is better in these situations because it does a much better job of banking the cold against the mountains and keeping the valleys colder. I still expect a lot of ice, especially east of Route 219 and north of Route 22. I'm only throwing the towel in for staying mostly snow, the NAM can show all the CAD it wants til the cows come home but as long as there is one point over my head that reaches above 0°C its sleet. I'm still liking this storm its just my confidence in seeing above 8" is slowly diminishing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Was outside for a bit. Been starting to have some light precip but debatable whether its grains or freezing drizzle. Actually looks like its freezing drizzle. Radars showing signs of starting to fill in so should see if we can get some solid snow to start this or if we're dealing with a mix from the getgo. Radar signature along the southern tier might be suggesting the latter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Was outside for a bit. Been starting to have some light precip but debatable whether its grains or freezing drizzle. Actually looks like its freezing drizzle. Radars showing signs of starting to fill in so should see if we can get some solid snow to start this or if we're dealing with a mix from the getgo. Radar signature along the southern tier might be suggesting the latter. I wish we could do a special night time weather ballon launch at the Walker building to help us out on this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Was outside for a bit. Been starting to have some light precip but debatable whether its grains or freezing drizzle. Actually looks like its freezing drizzle. Radars showing signs of starting to fill in so should see if we can get some solid snow to start this or if we're dealing with a mix from the getgo. Radar signature along the southern tier might be suggesting the latter. SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1128 PM EST MON JAN 31 2011 PAZ017>019-027-010630- CLEARFIELD-MIFFLIN-NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...STATE COLLEGE 1128 PM EST MON JAN 31 2011 .NOW... LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM. A HALF INCH OF ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY BY 3 AM...AFTER WHICH THE SNOW MAY BEGIN MIXING WITH SLEET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 What do the experts think we'll be dealing with here at IPT? Sleet to rain type scenario?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 What I'm really hoping for is what is depicted on the NAM, as soon as the heavier precip enters the area it cools the column down to the surface via evaportional cooling and thus sends the 0°C line back to the south which in fact would provide a snowier solution, I'm just not confident thats the right solution, whos to say we don't have a slightly more wound up LP and sends WAA further to the north? You mets are doing a great job, I'm just presenting my concerns especially with the slightly warmer trends in the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 If anything, based on the trends of the year, we will probably wind up with a further west and stronger low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 I'm only throwing the towel in for staying mostly snow, the NAM can show all the CAD it wants til the cows come home but as long as there is one point over my head that reaches above 0°C its sleet. I'm still liking this storm its just my confidence in seeing above 8" is slowly diminishing I'll throw in that towel with you. In my experience, snow always seems to change to sleet more than is anticipated. As you said, all it takes is the smallest sliver of the atmosphere to be above 0 and you get sleet. I think you'll get quite a bit of snow and sleet, but the actually result at the end may not look all that impressive because of the sleet packing down the snow. The warm air aloft is going to reach to the NY/PA border. The freezing line at the surface is another key -- and like I said before, I doubt that makes it much past Route 22 before the heavy precip ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 If anything, based on the trends of the year, we will probably wind up with a further west and stronger low. exactly my concerns, especially just watching the GFS come in. I understand that it doesn't handle CAD well but its still showing the 0°C line almost up to Rochester, NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Radar is showing the overrunning precip blossoming nicely in SW PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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