ajy127 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Always funny living in Waynesboro, Pa and working in Hagerstown, MD. It's a difference of 10 miles, but are serviced by two different NWS bureaus, and it never fails that they disagree on most storms. Baltimore is bullish on the sleet and icing for the area, while State College appears to be calling for a changeover not only tomorrow night, but also during the day as well. Even so, SC has issued a WSW for Franklin County and Balt only has Hagerstown up for a WWA. Confused? That makes two of us. Perhaps someone can shed some light on the forecast for this area because the NWS has been a joke recently. It looks like State College decided to go straight to a Winter Storm Warning that comes into effect 1AM Tuesday, while Baltimore went with an Advisory for tonight's event and leave a Winter Storm Watch for the main event Tuesday night into Wednesday, likely expecting a more Warning worthy event at that time. It's all in the preference I would imagine. I'm from Greencastle by the way, it's even worse here. I live about 3 miles north of the Mason-Dixon, so it's always interesting to compare. From Baltimore: ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST TUESDAY... ...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 hmmm GFS trends colder from 12z on the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 anyone think the 18z NAM came in to warm? hopefully it goes back to the 12Z at 00Z. I can't stand sleet, its sooooo boring, eventhough ice is more dangerous at least its interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 if it isnt snow i would rather get NO storm. Yea, I wish this storm would just go away. I like looking at the rain sleet or snow line but not the crippling ice line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 anyone think the 18z NAM came in to warm? hopefully it goes back to the 12Z at 00Z. I can't stand sleet, its sooooo boring, eventhough ice is more dangerous at least its interesting tbh this is going to be a nowcasting event...one thing to note is that the models have trended colder and colder all year long leading up to events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 hmmm GFS trends colder from 12z on the 18z run. ok now they're just screwing with us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 hmmm GFS trends colder from 12z on the 18z run. Maybe we're finally closing in on a consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 anyone think the 18z NAM came in to warm? hopefully it goes back to the 12Z at 00Z. I can't stand sleet, its sooooo boring, eventhough ice is more dangerous at least its interesting How far are you from the NY border?I thinki if ur right up by it then mainly snow is what you will get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 nevermind, I found it. I think you will do pretty well with snow.You are right up there on the border. Wish I was there.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 ok now they're just screwing with us I thought the same thing. I figure we'll see some variations through tomorrow afternoon....depending on how well a particular model is doing with the cold air and high pressure placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 How far are you from the NY border?I thinki if ur right up by it then mainly snow is what you will get there. literally 1 mile, I was worried about changing over to sleet and that cutting into my totals and the 18z just confirmed my pessimism. I'm going to skip classes if we have them, this is the first chance all year to enjoy a possible 12" storm and I'm not going to let it pass. The next set of runs are going to be huge for me to see if I'm going to mix or not, if they continue to show cooler solutions then hopefully those further to the south of me can join in on the snow fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I thought the same thing. I figure we'll see some variations through tomorrow afternoon....depending on how well a particular model is doing with the cold air and high pressure placement. yeah, I think this is one storm where 50 miles will make a huge difference in type of precip that falls.Everyone will get alot, just what kind .I think those near the NY border could end up with over a foot while central Pa may end up with 3 or 4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Weekend system looking mighty interesting through hr108... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Weekend system looking mighty interesting through hr108... Meh...jumped out to sea for the most part. 3-6" SCPA, 1-3" north. And no NYC doesn't get crushed, they get 3-6" also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Meh...jumped out to sea for the most part. 3-6" SCPA, 1-3" north. And no NYC doesn't get crushed, they get 3-6" also. Typical se bias for the gfs. Other models track it further nw.I would expect the gfs to eventually bring it back nw. ggem, euro and dgex look like a nice hit for us on sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Tombo was saying in the philly forum that the euro tracks the low right over 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Meh...jumped out to sea for the most part. 3-6" SCPA, 1-3" north. And no NYC doesn't get crushed, they get 3-6" also. 3-6 i'd take it...though this event does look very interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 anyone think the 18z NAM came in to warm? hopefully it goes back to the 12Z at 00Z. I can't stand sleet, its sooooo boring, eventhough ice is more dangerous at least its interesting Haha, hey sleet can be underrated really. If you get some sleet in your snowpack it'll last forever. The verdicts still out yet on if the other models/New NAM are too warm. I still would place my weight at this short term range on the NAM/SREF for ptypes and thermal profiles since they are displaying the best illustration of what things should be like with a high in place. And its always a fight in central PA with these types of events with a high. I wanna see what happens tonight/tomorrow morning with respect to the placement of this initial snowfall. But before i get too involved with discussing the rest of the region, I'll say that Potter County and especially near the NY border will stay mainly snow with perhaps a short period where sleet gets involved. Should be at least a good 8-12" there I think. I went a lil more in depth looking at the 18z NAM a bit ago. The 850s are def warmer than they were as you can see from the hour 39 that JMister put up. Theres still a decided dent through CPA at 850, with the +2 line dipping to near State College or so and the +4 dipping all the way down in MD. I also had a look at the 925 level, and these temps are still anchored easily below freezing with the 0 line running nearer to the MD border, the -2 dipping to KAOO, and UNV near the -4 line. This is hour 39.. at precip arrival. What I found most interesting was at hour 42, the heavier precip moving in actually collapses the 850 back into north central PA getting the 0 line roughly to i'd say northern clearfield or far nothern centre, and sending the +2 line all the way below KAOO and then lifting back up in the Sus Valley (for instance MDT on the +4 line at 850). However at 925, places like UNV never get warmer than about -2 to -4ºC, and MDT is about 0 to -2 the whole event. To put it simply, it still suggests to me that the central counties see more sleet than freezing rain, and the far north central along the ny border is probably mainly snow, with a point where sleet might mix in. I think someone in central along the I-80 corridor somewhere might actually deal with an inch or two of sleet. Where i'm still most concerned with damaging ice is the Laurels, the higher ridges of the central ridge and valley under I-80, the Susquehanna valley above the turnpike, and the higher parts of the Pocono's. Below the turnpike in places like York and Lancaster, there should be a change to plain rain at some point keeping ice accums while still significant, probably not of the highly damaging variety (>.50 accretion). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Haha, hey sleet can be underrated really. If you get some sleet in your snowpack it'll last forever. The verdicts still out yet on if the other models/New NAM are too warm. I still would place my weight at this short term range on the NAM/SREF for ptypes and thermal profiles since they are displaying the best illustration of what things should be like with a high in place. And its always a fight in central PA with these types of events with a high. I wanna see what happens tonight/tomorrow morning with respect to the placement of this initial snowfall. But before i get too involved with discussing the rest of the region, I'll say that Potter County and especially near the NY border will stay mainly snow with perhaps a short period where sleet gets involved. Should be at least a good 8-12" there I think. I went a lil more in depth looking at the 18z NAM a bit ago. The 850s are def warmer than they were as you can see from the hour 39 that JMister put up. Theres still a decided dent through CPA at 850, with the +2 line dipping to near State College or so and the +4 dipping all the way down in MD. I also had a look at the 925 level, and these temps are still anchored easily below freezing with the 0 line running nearer to the MD border, the -2 dipping to KAOO, and UNV near the -4 line. This is hour 39.. at precip arrival. What I found most interesting was at hour 42, the heavier precip moving in actually collapses the 850 back into north central PA getting the 0 line roughly to i'd say northern clearfield or far nothern centre, and sending the +2 line all the way below KAOO and then lifting back up in the Sus Valley (for instance MDT on the +4 line at 850). However at 925, places like UNV never get warmer than about -2 to -4ºC, and MDT is about 0 to -2 the whole event. To put it simply, it still suggests to me that the central counties see more sleet than freezing rain, and the far north central along the ny border is probably mainly snow, with a point where sleet might mix in. I think someone in central along the I-80 corridor somewhere might actually deal with an inch or two of sleet. Where i'm still most concerned with damaging ice is the Laurels, the higher ridges of the central ridge and valley under I-80, the Susquehanna valley above the turnpike, and the higher parts of the Pocono's. Below the turnpike in places like York and Lancaster, there should be a change to plain rain at some point keeping ice accums while still significant, probably not of the highly damaging variety (>.50 accretion). good write up,thanks. i cant believe im rooting for sleet. but at this point i will take it all in sleet as long as i dont get freezing rain / rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Tombo was saying in the philly forum that the euro tracks the low right over 95. that should be a good track for us (well i have no idea where your from...) " people need to put location in so we know where they are " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Weather World concurs on mainly sleet for UNV after initial round of snow - no mention of any ZFR for us. Total of 3-8" -- that would be just fine -- I'll take sleet over glaze ice any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 latest ruc looks more aggressive with precip tonight...further south anyway than both the nam and gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 GFS def colder. I don't care what the model say it's going to be huge ice storm. 1036MB high + snow pack = Ice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 that should be a good track for us (well i have no idea where your from...) " people need to put location in so we know where they are " sorry about that, I fixed my location now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 GFS def colder. I don't care what the model say it's going to be huge ice storm. 1036MB high + snow pack = Ice storm i know we probably sound like huge weenies saying that but I agree, this is going to be a monster ice storm for our areas imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 sorry about that, I fixed my location now. just a suggestion no need to be sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 i know we probably sound like huge weenies saying that but I agree, this is going to be a monster ice storm for our areas imo. Every time the models say it will warm up it never does. 3 ice storm I have seen here they said it would go above freezing and it never did till the event was over or not at all. Via the 2 ice storms in 2008 are good examples. I think they called for under .25" ice we got .5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowalot Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Wow hpc seems pretty bullish on the ice in south pa. I am in buffalo visiting so I will get the snow but it seems my gf will get the ice. Told her to plan for the worst and hope for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Tomorrow night could be just surreal around here. This snow pack is still deep and is going to be a big X-Factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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