PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I'n not buying the NAM if the NWS is throwing the data away because of model errors to bad to it was showing a great solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jen2swt Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 WSW creeping into PA now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 balmy 30 here in east york Yeah, I noticed that too. I'm already 5 degrees higher than my forecasted high. Still have a few hours of heating left and a nearly cloudless sky. The other side of that, though, is if we have a couple hours of non overcast skies this evening which would allow radiational cooling that was not forecasted either. If clouds come in right around sunset, that might have more of an affect downstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jen16226 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 WSW creeping into PA now Hi there....I know I am not CPA, but I lurk in here anyway for insight: I am in Armstrong County and they updated us already: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1055 AM EST MON JAN 31 2011 MDZ001-OHZ041-PAZ007>009-013>016-020-022-023-010000- /O.UPG.KPBZ.WS.A.0003.110201T0000Z-110202T1500Z/ /O.NEW.KPBZ.WS.W.0003.110201T0000Z-110202T1500Z/ GARRETT-COLUMBIANA-MERCER-VENANGO-FOREST-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION- JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER-ARMSTRONG-INDIANA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OAKLAND MD...GRANTSVILLE... EAST LIVERPOOL...SALEM...COLUMBIANA...EAST PALESTINE... WELLSVILLE...CALCUTTA...SHARON...HERMITAGE...GROVE CITY... GREENVILLE...FARRELL...OIL CITY...FRANKLIN...SUGARCREEK... TIONESTA...NEW CASTLE...ELLWOOD CITY...BUTLER...ZELIENOPLE... CLARION...PUNXSUTAWNEY...BROOKVILLE...REYNOLDSVILLE...BROCKWAY... ALIQUIPPA...BEAVER FALLS...AMBRIDGE...MONACA...BEAVER... KITTANNING...FORD CITY...LEECHBURG...FREEPORT...APOLLO...INDIANA 1055 AM EST MON JAN 31 2011 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND ICE...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * ACCUMULATION: ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF ICE. 3 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW. * TIMING: LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT. ACCUMULATING SNOW TUESDAY... MAY MIX WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS: ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATION ON UNTREATED ROADS WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. ACCUMULATING HEAVY WET SNOW AND ICE MAY CAUSE TREE LIMBS AND WIRES TO BREAK... MAKING POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Yeah, I noticed that too. I'm already 5 degrees higher than my forecasted high. Still have a few hours of heating left and a nearly cloudless sky. The other side of that, though, is if we have a couple hours of non overcast skies this evening which would allow radiational cooling that was not forecasted either. If clouds come in right around sunset, that might have more of an affect downstream. Right. Not to mention as of noon, nowhere else in PA except Philly has 30 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch for Cumberland County. ...A WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION STARTING TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND BEGIN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. THE STORM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE STATE. THICK...DAMAGING ICE ACCUMULATIONS FROM FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ARE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Right. Not to mention as of noon, nowhere else in PA except Philly has 30 degrees. I'm not even into the 20s yet. 17.9*F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I'n not buying the NAM if the NWS is throwing the data away because of model errors to bad to it was showing a great solution I'm not sure I would toss the Nam. I think it has a pretty good handle on the cold. Does anyone have an idea or input on how much this error may effect the Nam? 21 degrees here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I'm not sure I would toss the Nam. I think it has a pretty good handle on the cold. Does anyone have an idea or input on how much this error may effect the Nam? 21 degrees here I wouldn't either. I also just looked it the nam now has me at almost an inch of FRZN 9that is if i read it right http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/cobb_nam/nam_kmdt.dat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 What is.... 110201/2300Z 35 07007KT 24.1F ZLSG 0:1| 0.0|| 9.0 0.004|| 0.68 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.01 0| 10| 90 Could a met answer this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I wouldn't either. I also just looked it the nam now has me at almost an inch of FRZN 9that is if i read it right http://www.meteor.ia...am/nam_kmdt.dat Actually, that shows a total of 1.34" of FZRA. Wow. While that may not necessarily happen in MDT, I think someone to the south of UNV and north of the Pa/Md border is in for a severe ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I wouldn't either. I also just looked it the nam now has me at almost an inch of FRZN 9that is if i read it right http://www.meteor.ia...am/nam_kmdt.dat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 just looked at the soundings for IPT and even the warm GFS only raises the temp to .5 * at the 800 and 850 level on wed morning. Thats as high as it gets which is enuf.The question is can we lose that half degree and keep it more snow than ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 What is.... 110201/2300Z 35 07007KT 24.1F ZLSG 0:1| 0.0|| 9.0 0.004|| 0.68 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.01 0| 10| 90 Could a met answer this? ZL is freezing drizzle and SG is snow grains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 So, what are the odds MDT to Reading sees the most severe ice storm throughout all the states this storm hits? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Actually, that shows a total of 1.34" of FZRA. Wow. While that may not necessarily happen in MDT, I think someone to the south of UNV and north of the Pa/Md border is in for a severe ice storm. Ok thanks. I thought some of that was snow..... I use MDT because its the closest for me i guess. however i'm actually across the river West from HBG in Cumberland county, which is above the turnpike even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 So, what are the odds MDT to Reading sees the most severe ice storm throughout all the states this storm hits? Actually, it might be pretty good, though I'd bet it's worse in the Valleys to your northwest in Perry, Juniata, and Snyder counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Yeah, and since those counties are very, very rural mass destruction likely to take place. I'm running to the store after work to pick up batteries, some food that can be prepared without power, an extra gas tank for my grill and then I'm hitting up the state store for a botle or two of Drambouie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Is the Euro the same, thought I heard someone say the Euro was still slightly warm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Someone said this was kinda like V-Day 2007. I went back and looked at my records, I forgot the kids didn't have school for 3 days afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 If I'm understanding the Euro correctly, I hit the mid 50's on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Yeah, and since those counties are very, very rural mass destruction likely to take place. I'm running to the store after work to pick up batteries, some food that can be prepared without power, an extra gas tank for my grill and then I'm hitting up the state store for a botle or two of Drambouie. What will your wife drink? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Someone said this was kinda like V-Day 2007. I went back and looked at my records, I forgot the kids didn't have school for 3 days afterwards. IIRC it was illegal (per state emergency law) to drive on any state highway for two days in and around HBG. There were people without power all over for more than a week. That storm had like 4" sleet, 3" snow and then .5" zr. It was insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 IIRC it was illegal (per state emergency law) to drive on any state highway for two days in and around HBG. There were people without power all over for more than a week. That storm had like 4" sleet, 3" snow and then .5" zr. It was insane. My records show 4" snow on Tuesday the 13th, with sleet taking over at about 9PM and accumulating 3" more for a total of 7" snow and sleet..(sneet) we did have FRZN too I only missed Wednesday from work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jen2swt Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Interesting slideshow http://www.wgal.com/...545/detail.html If that blue is rain, it doesn't reach my area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Take it with a grain of salt, but the SUNY MM5 does not take anyone north of MDT or so above 0*C at 850 for the whole event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Interesting slideshow http://www.wgal.com/...545/detail.html If that blue is rain, it doesn't reach my area Jen, thats pretty cool. Looks like it was 3 pm Wednesday before we were out of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jen2swt Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 This is hilarious http://www.wimp.com/janitorrevenge/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I laugh at all the accuweather forecast maps, every single one they have posted are completely different and show like 5 different scenarios for my area with snow vs mix??? They only have me accumulating 4" of snow while the SREF and NAM models have me receiving 12-14" of snow. There is such a spread amongst Mets it isnt even funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I laugh at all the accuweather forecast maps, every single one they have posted are completely different and show like 5 different scenarios for my area with snow vs mix??? They only have me accumulating 4" of snow while the SREF and NAM models have me receiving 12-14" of snow. There is such a spread amongst Mets it isnt even funny Lol never mind, I didn't realize the SREF was a mixture of runs from the NAM and other models well heres hoping the dreded sleet stays away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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