Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Central PA Late January Thread Part III

Rick G

By Rick G,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

Recommended Posts

EasternUSWX

EasternUSWX

Posted
Posted

Insane.

110202/0500Z 41 09009KT 30.7F FZRA 0.016|| 0.02

110202/0600Z 42 10010KT 30.4F FZRA 0.079|| 0.09

110202/0700Z 43 09009KT 30.4F FZRA 0.138|| 0.23

110202/0800Z 44 09012KT 30.0F FZRA 0.142|| 0.37

110202/0900Z 45 10013KT 30.6F FZRA 0.224|| 0.60

110202/1000Z 46 10016KT 30.0F FZRA 0.126|| 0.72

110202/1100Z 47 10016KT 29.8F FZRA 0.094|| 0.82

110202/1200Z 48 11010KT 30.0F FZRA 0.134|| 0.95

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Replies 1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Scummyratguy

Scummyratguy

Posted
Posted

haha i just have no interest in this ice business. Give me snow or rain. And I know the models are "trending colder", but I'm betting the cold air is pushed out of the southern susq valley (york lanc) pretty quickly and holds stronger north like harrisburg north. I'm already at my forecasted hi for the day so let's torch it and move on!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites
NortheastPAWx

NortheastPAWx

Posted
Posted

A man can dream, right?

18 02/01 06Z   20 	16 	140   	9    0.01  0.00    532    554   -7.0 -23.8 1028 100 -SN   015OVC304    0.1    2.7
 21 02/01 09Z   19 	16 	123   	9    0.05  0.00    533    554   -6.8 -23.3 1027 100 -SN   013OVC259    0.5    1.6
 24 02/01 12Z   21 	19 	122   	9    0.09  0.00    536    556   -3.8 -23.0 1025 100 -SN   014OVC279    0.9    0.6
 27 02/01 15Z   23 	22      67   	6    0.16  0.00    536    556   -3.0 -22.3 1025 100 SN    014OVC332    1.6    0.3
 30 02/01 18Z   24 	23 	107   	8    0.26  0.00    538    556   -1.7 -22.3 1022 100 SN    013OVC356    2.6    0.5
 33 02/01 21Z   25 	22      61   	7    0.08  0.00    538    556   -1.6 -21.3 1022 100 -SN   013OVC339    0.8    2.9
 36 02/02 00Z   23 	21      59   	4    0.00  0.00    538    557   -1.8 -20.8 1023 100   	013OVC311    0.0    5.5
 39 02/02 03Z   23 	21      44   	5    0.01  0.00    539    558   -0.4 -20.6 1024 100   	014OVC360    0.0    7.8
 42 02/02 06Z   23 	21      74   	7    0.00  0.00    539    556    0.2 -18.5 1021 100   	013OVC377    0.0    8.9
 45 02/02 09Z   22 	20      92      11    0.11  0.00    540    555   -1.2 -18.0 1018 100 SN    012OVC403    1.1    0.5
 48 02/02 12Z   21 	18      97      17    0.30  0.00    543    554   -0.3 -14.8 1014 100 SN    014OVC343    2.4    0.5
 51 02/02 15Z   22 	19      96      11    0.36  0.00    543    552   -3.0 -16.4 1011 100 PL    014OVC246    0.0    0.8
 54 02/02 18Z   23 	21      74      11    0.20  0.00    539    545   -0.3 -22.6 1007 100 -SN   014OVC216    1.6    3.6
 57 02/02 21Z   26 	23      96   	9    0.00  0.00    535    539   -1.3 -25.3 1004 100   	013OVC061    0.0    5.9
 60 02/03 00Z   23 	21 	114   	5    0.01  0.00    530    537   -5.1 -23.3 1007 100 -SN   014OVC093    0.1    3.5
 63 02/03 03Z   24 	22 	143   	4    0.03  0.00    527    534   -9.4 -25.8 1009 100 -SN   014OVC140    0.3    1.1
 66 02/03 06Z   24 	23 	329   	4    0.04  0.00    526    534   -9.5 -25.6 1010 100 -SN   013OVC083    0.4    2.3

Link to comment
Share on other sites
pawatch

pawatch

Posted
Posted

I'm currently 11 months away from my MS, Emergency Management. :D

Best of luck to you! Demanding job when things go to crap.

I had 28 years as a career Firefighter. Now I just drink coffee and post on this forum. :)

Only aspect I didn't like was. When the weather was really bad. weather incidents . You was not home to properly take care of your family.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Festus

Festus

Posted
Posted

Never been through an Ice storm. Not sure what to expect. I know my job will expect me to be in tomorrow....in BALTIMORE. Do I call out? ...Ahh decisions, decisions...if I call out, they will probably think I'm nuts...

Ice storms are the worst.

The main roads will likely be OK assuming they continuously salt. It's the back roads and then stuff like sidewalks can basically be equated to an ice rink but even more slippery since there's rain on top of the ice. Plus your car will be encased. Sometimes it's good luck trying to get your door open. I recall back in I believe '94 it was so bad you couldn't walk anywhere. I put on my metal golf spikes to walk to the store.

The bigger issue in terms of danger is all that ice weighs heavily on trees and power lines. When that stuff comes crashing down, life is not good.

We all love a good snow. But after some plowing and shoveling, things get back to normal pretty quickly. But a severe ice storm can have far more devastating and long lasting consequences. Not something to root for.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
hckyplayer8

hckyplayer8

Posted
Posted

Ouch

KCXY NAM MOS GUIDANCE 1/31/2011 1200 UTC DT /JAN 31/FEB 1 /FEB 2 /FEB 3 HR 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12 N/X 24 34 28 36 20 TMP 24 24 25 26 26 27 27 29 31 32 32 31 31 31 31 32 33 33 31 26 21 DPT 15 17 19 19 20 21 22 23 26 27 26 25 25 25 25 26 26 24 22 14 11 CLD OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV FW WDR 04 08 10 10 11 10 10 00 00 05 08 05 08 08 08 05 03 01 26 29 30 WSP 05 05 03 04 03 04 03 00 00 01 02 05 06 07 10 05 02 03 07 12 12 P06 13 65 92 81 43 45 83 85 13 14 0 P12 92 81 89 90 14 Q06 0 1 1 1 1 1 4 3 0 0 0 Q12 1 1 4 3 0 T06 0/10 0/ 2 1/ 2 0/ 1 0/ 4 4/ 3 5/ 4 6/ 7 2/20 0/ 1 T12 0/10 1/ 2 4/ 4 6/ 7 2/20 SNW 1 4 2 CIG 8 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 2 3 2 2 5 6 8 VIS 7 7 7 4 4 5 5 1 3 4 5 5 3 5 5 2 2 5 7 7 7 OBV N N N BR BR BR BR FG BR BR BR BR BR BR BR FG FG BR N N N

KLNS NAM MOS GUIDANCE 1/31/2011 1200 UTC DT /JAN 31/FEB 1 /FEB 2 /FEB 3 HR 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12 N/X 25 34 28 36 21 TMP 22 24 24 25 27 28 28 29 31 32 30 29 31 31 32 32 33 33 30 26 22 DPT 16 18 20 21 22 24 24 24 25 26 25 24 26 28 28 29 28 26 23 17 13 CLD OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV FW WDR 02 07 08 08 07 06 07 07 05 06 05 06 07 06 06 01 02 02 28 27 30 WSP 04 05 03 05 05 04 03 02 05 04 04 06 08 10 14 06 08 04 06 12 12 P06 4 41 94 78 42 35 83 85 26 18 3 P12 94 78 89 92 18 Q06 0 1 1 1 1 0 3 3 0 0 0 Q12 1 1 4 3 0 T06 0/10 0/ 2 1/ 2 0/ 1 1/ 4 3/ 3 5/ 4 7/ 7 2/20 0/ 1 T12 0/10 1/ 2 3/ 4 7/ 7 2/20 SNW 1 1 2 CIG 8 7 6 6 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 6 7 VIS 7 7 7 6 4 5 5 2 3 4 5 5 5 5 5 2 1 5 5 7 7 OBV N N N BR BR BR BR BR BR BR BR BR BR BR BR BR FG BR BR N N

*I advise clicking the link...pasting didn't work...at all

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmet.pl?sta=KCXY&sta=KLNS

Link to comment
Share on other sites
EasternUSWX

EasternUSWX

Posted
Posted

GFS is much warmer than NAM for these parts. We hardly get any front end snow, turn to ice, and then quickly to rain. Another very tough forecast based on the discrepances of these models.

The SREFS and nAM are cold which makes sense due to the strong high to the north, GFS still not getting it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Festus

Festus

Posted
Posted

Warnings just went up for Pittsburg area...

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM

EST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER

STORM WARNING FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND ICE...WHICH

IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY. THE

WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* ACCUMULATION: ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH OF ICE. 3 TO 7

INCHES OF SNOW.

* TIMING: LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT. ACCUMULATING SNOW

TUESDAY... MAY MIX WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN THE

AFTERNOON. THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN WILL PERSIST INTO

WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS: ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATION ON UNTREATED ROADS WILL

LEAD TO HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. ACCUMULATING HEAVY WET

SNOW AND ICE MAY CAUSE TREE LIMBS AND WIRES TO BREAK... MAKING

POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
PottercountyWXobserver

PottercountyWXobserver

Posted
Posted

I wonder where PotterCountyObserver is....he's looking really good now for an all snow event.

Sorry had a 8AM class this morning, uggh calc 2 in the morning is rough :( BTW we had a low of -5°F this morning. I glad you think we will end up all snow, but for some reason I have my doubt, just because I'm afraid I'm going to switch over to sleet which will cut my totals quite a bit. If the NWS wasn't saying we are going to mix I wouldn't be concerned, because they normally do a stand up job. You really think we could stay all snow? If thats the case we maybe able to reach the 12" or a little more! If that HP to the north can keep the LP from charging up the lakes to far that may keep the WAA to a minimum for us

Link to comment
Share on other sites
EasternUSWX

EasternUSWX

Posted
Posted

Looks like HPC is saying the NAM is too far East with the mid level feature at initialization. The eastward position would have an affect on the outcome but I don't see how a stronger primary would argue against its colder solution?

THE NAM HAS TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER AND STRONGER BUT OTHERWISESHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 06Z GFS...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWFAVERAGES 50-75 NM NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE NAM/GFS. AN UNRESOLVEDCONCERN HOWEVER IS THAT MISSING RAOB DATA FROM SAN DIEGO MAY BECONTRIBUTING TO THE NAM'S QUESTIONABLE INITIALIZATION WHICH SHOWSTHE CENTER OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AS MUCH AS 50-75 NM EAST OF ITSAPPROXIMATED POSITION ACCORDING TO WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THUS...THENAM'S SLOWER/STRONGER TREND ENTERING THE PLAINS IS QUESTIONED.

Good we don't want it stronger aways.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
hckyplayer8

hckyplayer8

Posted
Posted

THE NAM HAS TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER AND STRONGER BUT OTHERWISESHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 06Z GFS...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWFAVERAGES 50-75 NM NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE NAM/GFS. AN UNRESOLVEDCONCERN HOWEVER IS THAT MISSING RAOB DATA FROM SAN DIEGO MAY BECONTRIBUTING TO THE NAM'S QUESTIONABLE INITIALIZATION WHICH SHOWSTHE CENTER OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AS MUCH AS 50-75 NM EAST OF ITSAPPROXIMATED POSITION ACCORDING TO WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THUS...THENAM'S SLOWER/STRONGER TREND ENTERING THE PLAINS IS QUESTIONED.

Good we don't want it stronger aways.

...LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST COASTTHROUGH TUESDAY...FORECASTS AT THE SURFACE ARE SIMILAR. HOWEVER...THE NAM LIES NEARTHE STRONG EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE WITH ITS ASCENT FORMING WITHIN THESTRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTH OF THE LOW INCLUDING AREASBETWEEN ALBANY AND BOSTON...WHILE THE 06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF SHOWSIMILAR LARGER-SCALE STRUCTURE.

Maybe this is the part they are questioning. Even then they aren't that different. The real difference is at the surface and HPC doesn't mention that. lightning.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Itstrainingtime

Itstrainingtime

Posted
Posted

Horst - 11:30am update:

* Major Ice Storm Possible Tuesday Night into Wednesday *

spacer.gifnew-specialWx2_r3_c1.gifspacer.gif

11:30am Monday update:

It's been a few years since we've have a major ice storm, but that possibility is certainly on the table for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. This is something I've been waiting for, since La Nina winters are known to produce "mixed precip" and ice storms in our area, rather than heavy snow. The large-scale pattern is finally evolving into a configuration more typical of La Nina...so we might have a couple mixed precip or icy storms in our future this February.

Before the ice storm hits, we have a front-running disturbance that will bring a light to moderate snowfall to the Commonwealth tonight into early Tuesday. Light snow, perhaps mixed with some freezing drizzle, will develop across southern PA this evening, then spread northward overnight. The steadiest snow will fall across the northern half of the state, where I expect 3 to 5 inches to fall by midday Tuesday. Across the southern half of PA, and especially south of the Turnpike, the snow will be mixed with sleet and freezing drizzle at times...so accumulations should be more in the 1/2- to 3-inch range by midday Tuesday. A lull will develop Tuesday afternoon and evening as we await the second, stronger storm. Tuesday night into Wednesday is a classic set up for an ice storm in the Susquehanna and Lehigh Valleys, as low-level cold air will be lodged in over a deep snow pack while warm, moist air aloft streams northward from the Gulf of Mexico. An extended period of steady freezing is likely from around midnight to midday Wednesday--there could even be some rare "thunder freezing rain" around dawn Wednesday. Temperatures will be stuck in the 20s Tuesday and Tuesday night, and only slowly rise to 32 (or just above) sometime mid-morning to midday Wednesday. Therefore, between 1/4" and 1/2" inch of ice is quite possible...and should this come to fruition, we'd be looking a tree and powerline damage as well as a "skating rink" on untreated roads and sidewalks. If we're lucky temperatures will rise above freezing faster than I expect, thus reducing the heavy ice threat...but I wouldn't bet on it. The freezing rain or plain rain will end during the midday hours Wednesday, but Canadian air will surge back in Wednesday night with a refreeze of the slushy/icy mess. Needless to say, this could turn into a very serious storm in our area; hopefully some of the details will change for the better over the next 36 hours. Check back here for updates...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...