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Central PA Late January Thread Part III


Rick G

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It appears the NAM jacked up the snow for UNV. Much colder overall - haven't looked at the overall soundings but the 850s actually look snowy. Feel free to come on in and stomp all over these thoughts if I am full o' poopers.

I have a feeling that there is a warm layer above 850mb at least for most of the 2nd batch, giving our area sleet. But again, lets see what the soundings have to say. A significant amount of overrunning snow for sure on this run!

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It appears the NAM jacked up the snow for UNV. Much colder overall - haven't looked at the overall soundings but the 850s actually look snowy. Feel free to come on in and stomp all over these thoughts if I am full o' poopers.

how did you guys fare in the Vday storm in 07...that's what this reminds me of right now

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The following is a atmospheric sounding for station KLNS (Lancaster, PA) from the 12z NAM @ hour 48.

The damming on this sounding is impressive to say the least. It has been my experience that 30 and freezing rain during the day is nothing to write home about. But if a location sees temperatures in the 20s with freezing rain, that is a different story. With that said, places even in the lower Susquehanna Valley could be in for another icy surprise. If you read the AFD out of State College this morning, the impression seems to be that areas south of I-78 will see minimal ice, yet a lot of the storm happens during the night. No sun, no aid in warming. We'll see how this goes.

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I got down to 4 degrees this morning, My zone forecast is for just an inch or two of snow, then a short period of sleet before an extented period of Zr. I'm hoping that with temps expected in my area to be around the freezing mark that it will "rain" hard enough to lessen the ice problems. Zr at 25 is much worse than if it's 31 or 32. To me, I wouldn't want to be in some of those valleys north and west of MDT. Looks like a very serious situation up there regardless of how bad it gets in my area.

i have been trying to give my family and friends a heads up with the potential.

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how did you guys fare in the Vday storm in 07...that's what this reminds me of right now

I got 11 inches then four hours of sleet then a few inches of fluff as icing.

There is a storm I mentioned before on here that I am not sure the exact year.....I was in jr. high or a freshman.....this board would have freaked.

1-3 then sleet then ice before it started. It snowed like hell and I went to bed, my dad woke me up at 6:30 am to tell me to look out the window....8 inches and counting. We ended up with 10 inches, an inch of sleet, a glaze of ice. One of my favorite alltime good busts. This sort of reminds me of that, I do remember setup just not exact winter.

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I have a feeling that there is a warm layer above 850mb at least for most of the 2nd batch, giving our area sleet. But again, lets see what the soundings have to say. A significant amount of overrunning snow for sure on this run!

I stand corrected! Through hour 48, the profile is JUST at or below freezing. After that (hr 51), a slight warmup would change us to sleet. But wow that would be a lot of snow for the Centre county region and north!

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I stand corrected! Through hour 48, the profile is JUST at or below freezing. After that (hr 51), a slight warmup would change us to sleet. But wow that would be a lot of snow for the Centre county region and north!

JB just updated that he thinks one of the bigger headaches is a change back to heavy snow in PA, NJ and maybe even NYC due to the very strong upward motion cooling the layers that warm.

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The following is a atmospheric sounding for station KLNS (Lancaster, PA) from the 12z NAM @ hour 48.

The damming on this sounding is impressive to say the least. It has been my experience that 30 and freezing rain during the day is nothing to write home about. But if a location sees temperatures in the 20s with freezing rain, that is a different story. With that said, places even in the lower Susquehanna Valley could be in for another icy surprise. If you read the AFD out of State College this morning, the impression seems to be that areas south of I-78 will see minimal ice, yet a lot of the storm happens during the night. No sun, no aid in warming. We'll see how this goes.

post-1389-0-26750900-1296484320.gif

My soundings show 28 with freezing rain .75" ZR by 8am. Another .25" between then and 1pm temps rise to 30-31.

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I've said it before and I'll say it again, 30 and freezing rain is not as bad as 27 and freezing rain. Once you hit the 30s, ice does not crystallize as quickly on surfaces.

Much of that has to do with the latent heat of fusion as liquid solidifies into ice. I am in absolute agreement that when temps are in the 20s, that makes for a damaging ice storm.

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Take a look at the northeast tilt on the damming signature. Impressive.

We have a 1038 chilling to the north. Models have it around 1034 right now. The pressure at my house is 1034 and rising.

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Look at that wedge east of the Apps all the way down into South Carolina.

I'm starting to wonder...could we get a lot of white out of this system? Models keep trending colder.

Doubtful, even for you. Take a look at the 850/700mb temps. This is the snow growth region of the storm and it is not too favorable for good accumulating dendrites.

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Tuesday would see 2hr delay, just to get the day in. Wednesday is a whole different story. I'd still do homework in case things change.

They athletic office just ask me what i was reading on here! they'd rather hear your opinion then the locals.. You don't think they'll cancel if its freezing rain tomorrow?

Maybe we should take my daughter out for her B-day dinner tonight instead of Tuesday

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