Jmister Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 It appears the NAM jacked up the snow for UNV. Much colder overall - haven't looked at the overall soundings but the 850s actually look snowy. Feel free to come on in and stomp all over these thoughts if I am full o' poopers. I have a feeling that there is a warm layer above 850mb at least for most of the 2nd batch, giving our area sleet. But again, lets see what the soundings have to say. A significant amount of overrunning snow for sure on this run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 It appears the NAM jacked up the snow for UNV. Much colder overall - haven't looked at the overall soundings but the 850s actually look snowy. Feel free to come on in and stomp all over these thoughts if I am full o' poopers. how did you guys fare in the Vday storm in 07...that's what this reminds me of right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The following is a atmospheric sounding for station KLNS (Lancaster, PA) from the 12z NAM @ hour 48. The damming on this sounding is impressive to say the least. It has been my experience that 30 and freezing rain during the day is nothing to write home about. But if a location sees temperatures in the 20s with freezing rain, that is a different story. With that said, places even in the lower Susquehanna Valley could be in for another icy surprise. If you read the AFD out of State College this morning, the impression seems to be that areas south of I-78 will see minimal ice, yet a lot of the storm happens during the night. No sun, no aid in warming. We'll see how this goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I got down to 4 degrees this morning, My zone forecast is for just an inch or two of snow, then a short period of sleet before an extented period of Zr. I'm hoping that with temps expected in my area to be around the freezing mark that it will "rain" hard enough to lessen the ice problems. Zr at 25 is much worse than if it's 31 or 32. To me, I wouldn't want to be in some of those valleys north and west of MDT. Looks like a very serious situation up there regardless of how bad it gets in my area. i have been trying to give my family and friends a heads up with the potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 how did you guys fare in the Vday storm in 07...that's what this reminds me of right now I got 11 inches then four hours of sleet then a few inches of fluff as icing. There is a storm I mentioned before on here that I am not sure the exact year.....I was in jr. high or a freshman.....this board would have freaked. 1-3 then sleet then ice before it started. It snowed like hell and I went to bed, my dad woke me up at 6:30 am to tell me to look out the window....8 inches and counting. We ended up with 10 inches, an inch of sleet, a glaze of ice. One of my favorite alltime good busts. This sort of reminds me of that, I do remember setup just not exact winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I have a feeling that there is a warm layer above 850mb at least for most of the 2nd batch, giving our area sleet. But again, lets see what the soundings have to say. A significant amount of overrunning snow for sure on this run! Thanks......I'll take the sleet. Don't want the freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 how did you guys fare in the Vday storm in 07...that's what this reminds me of right now oh no you didn't just say that did you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 [/b] oh no you didn't just say that did you Yup he did, the placement of the high and moisture transport for this storm are similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I have a feeling that there is a warm layer above 850mb at least for most of the 2nd batch, giving our area sleet. But again, lets see what the soundings have to say. A significant amount of overrunning snow for sure on this run! I stand corrected! Through hour 48, the profile is JUST at or below freezing. After that (hr 51), a slight warmup would change us to sleet. But wow that would be a lot of snow for the Centre county region and north! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I stand corrected! Through hour 48, the profile is JUST at or below freezing. After that (hr 51), a slight warmup would change us to sleet. But wow that would be a lot of snow for the Centre county region and north! JB just updated that he thinks one of the bigger headaches is a change back to heavy snow in PA, NJ and maybe even NYC due to the very strong upward motion cooling the layers that warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Yup he did, the placement of the high and moisture transport for this storm are similar. yep, eerily similar, however this will be more freezing rain imo than sleet. also remember temps before that storm were frigid as well.(and we were suppose to go to rain) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The following is a atmospheric sounding for station KLNS (Lancaster, PA) from the 12z NAM @ hour 48. The damming on this sounding is impressive to say the least. It has been my experience that 30 and freezing rain during the day is nothing to write home about. But if a location sees temperatures in the 20s with freezing rain, that is a different story. With that said, places even in the lower Susquehanna Valley could be in for another icy surprise. If you read the AFD out of State College this morning, the impression seems to be that areas south of I-78 will see minimal ice, yet a lot of the storm happens during the night. No sun, no aid in warming. We'll see how this goes. My soundings show 28 with freezing rain .75" ZR by 8am. Another .25" between then and 1pm temps rise to 30-31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 My soundings show 28 with freezing rain .75" ZR by 8am. Another .25" between then and 1pm temps rise to 30-31. I've said it before and I'll say it again, 30 and freezing rain is not as bad as 27 and freezing rain. Once you hit the 30s, ice does not crystallize as quickly on surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I've said it before and I'll say it again, 30 and freezing rain is not as bad as 27 and freezing rain. Once you hit the 30s, ice does not crystallize as quickly on surfaces. Ya looks like most of it comes in the upper 20's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I've said it before and I'll say it again, 30 and freezing rain is not as bad as 27 and freezing rain. Once you hit the 30s, ice does not crystallize as quickly on surfaces. Much of that has to do with the latent heat of fusion as liquid solidifies into ice. I am in absolute agreement that when temps are in the 20s, that makes for a damaging ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 My soundings show 28 with freezing rain .75" ZR by 8am. Another .25" between then and 1pm temps rise to 30-31. 8am Tuesday, or 8am Wednesday? What is MDT please never mind, i saw it. looks like .71 to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 We have a 1038 chilling to the north. Models have it around 1034 right now. The pressure at my house is 1034 and rising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 This a look at the nam forecast precipitation for kipt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 This a look at the nam forecast precipitation for kipt. Wow, that's from 06 - I wonder what 12Z will be like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 8am Tuesday, or 8am Wednesday? What is MDT please 8AM Wednesday. 12Z NAM says you are in trouble most of the ZR falls into 26-28 degree air 1" QPF has fallen. Warms to 32 at the very end another .3-.4" QPF between 30-32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 8AM Wednesday. 12Z NAM says you are in trouble most of the ZR falls into 26-28 degree air 1" QPF has fallen. Warms to 32 at the very end another .3-.4" QPF between 30-32. great. I guess i'd better get my grille's propane tank filled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I'm starting to wonder...could we get a lot of white out of this system? Models keep trending colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I'm starting to wonder...could we get a lot of white out of this system? Models keep trending colder. i think you being more north, yes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 great. I guess i'd better get my grille's propane tank filled. MDT http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=PA&stn=KMDT&model=nam&time=current&field=prec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 So, most likely schools will be closed both tomorrow and Wednesday? This looks BAD for my area! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Take a look at the northeast tilt on the damming signature. Impressive. We have a 1038 chilling to the north. Models have it around 1034 right now. The pressure at my house is 1034 and rising. Look at that wedge east of the Apps all the way down into South Carolina. I'm starting to wonder...could we get a lot of white out of this system? Models keep trending colder. Doubtful, even for you. Take a look at the 850/700mb temps. This is the snow growth region of the storm and it is not too favorable for good accumulating dendrites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 So, most likely schools will be closed both tomorrow and Wednesday? This looks BAD for my area! Tuesday would see 2hr delay, just to get the day in. Wednesday is a whole different story. I'd still do homework in case things change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 MDT http://coolwx.com/cg...rent&field=prec Still the 06 run.....12Z should be up shortly. That's going to be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Tuesday would see 2hr delay, just to get the day in. Wednesday is a whole different story. I'd still do homework in case things change. They athletic office just ask me what i was reading on here! they'd rather hear your opinion then the locals.. You don't think they'll cancel if its freezing rain tomorrow? Maybe we should take my daughter out for her B-day dinner tonight instead of Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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