sauss06 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Not sure how accurate this is, but look how many hours of FRZN this shows for MDT? http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/cobb_nam/nam_kmdt.dat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 5 for the low this morning. Currently 6 degrees. Wondering how this storm is gonna end up. We will see Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Not sure how accurate this is, but look how many hours of FRZN this shows for MDT? http://www.meteor.ia...am/nam_kmdt.dat .56" of zr through 70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Not sure how accurate this is, but look how many hours of FRZN this shows for MDT? http://www.meteor.ia...am/nam_kmdt.dat Heres the GFS http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/cobb_gfsm/gfs3_kmdt.dat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 GFS only shows .18" - I'm unfortunately thinking it'll be more in the NAM/Euro range. I'm taking donations for batteries and extra blankets! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 .56" of zr through 70. not digging this at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Got down to -1.2 this am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I trash abc27 a lot, so I'll equally give them credit when its due. Their a.m. writeup is good, too bad they didn't convey this too well on their broadcasts this morning imo. Another week and we have another storm moving into the area. While this one is drastically different than last week's system, it is equally difficult to forecast because we should see a little bit of everything. Here's the breakdown: Expect a partly sunny day ahead with temperatures in the mid 20s. Clouds will increase this afternoon as the first wave of this storm approaches. Light snow should develop sometime after 8:00PM this evening and continue through tomorrow morning. Accumulations will range between 1-4 inches. While the snow could continue for times tomorrow morning, expect enough warm air to move in to change the precipitation over to freezing rain. The freezing rain will continue at times through the day tomorrow and serious ice accumulations could be a concern. The uncertainties here include how long the precipitation will stay as snow and whether enough warm air will move in to change everything to plain rain. If freezing rain sticks around long enough, it could create major ice accumulation and that could lead to serious problems. We will of course stay on top of this situation for you. Once Tuesday night rolls around, it should get cold enough for freezing rain once again. This should change to plain rain by sunrise Wednesday, but again, it all depends on if the atmosphere can scour out the cold air. All signs point to more rain than ice, but this is a fluid situation. No pun intended. This is a complex storm that will need to be monitored by the hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NWS discussion is interesting http://forecast.weat...1&highlight=off LOOKING FOR REASONS TO CHANGE THE FORECAST FROM WHAT WE HAVE...AND WE HAVE FOUND NONE. THE TRIPLE POINT WILL PASS WED AM...AND WINDS JUST BEFORE AND IN THE DRY SLOT COULD REACH 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH AS 70-80KT THE NEXT BIG THING WOULD BE A COASTAL LOW TO FORM ON FRIDAY OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND RIDE UP THE COAST. THIS POTENTIAL WEEKEND STORM LOOKS MUCH MORE LIKE WHAT WE HAVE SEEN ALREADY THIS YEAR - ALL SNOW FOR THE REGION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF DEEP SNOW TO THE EAST OF STATE COLLEGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 (2011%20Proclamation%20%231.0)%20Winter%20Fuel%20Delivery%20Janaury%2021,%202011.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 (2011%20Proclamation%20%231.0)%20Winter%20Fuel%20Delivery%20Janaury%2021,%202011.pdf LOL the date is wrong on this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 And here's this morning's CTP forecast for MDT. Basically, it says good luck. Tonight: Snow. Low around 22. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Tuesday: Sleet before 1pm, then freezing rain and sleet. High near 31. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New sleet accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Tuesday Night: Rain or freezing rain likely before 1am, then freezing rain. Low around 28. Calm wind becoming east around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Man this could be bad. I am sure am glad I'm not working as an EM in central PA over the next 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 LOL the date is wrong on this Colbert is new. Still working the bugs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Newest short range ensembles are big time cold. Freezing line runs along the turnpike as its farthest NW point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Got down to 7 last night 8 degrees below the forecasting highs. Euro was at 15 for a low, GFS 12, NAM 14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The winds worry me a little bit. THE TRIPLE POINT WILL PASS WED AM...AND WINDS JUST BEFORE AND IN THE DRY SLOT COULD REACH 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH AS 70-80KT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The winds worry me a little bit. THE TRIPLE POINT WILL PASS WED AM...AND WINDS JUST BEFORE AND IN THE DRY SLOT COULD REACH 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH AS 70-80KT i guess not good if we get a lil snow, then freezing rain, then those winds, that'd suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The winds worry me a little bit. THE TRIPLE POINT WILL PASS WED AM...AND WINDS JUST BEFORE AND IN THE DRY SLOT COULD REACH 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH AS 70-80KT Yeah, saw that too. If there's 0.25" ice accretion on trees and power lines, that kind of wind will cause issues. Even if we sneak above freezing for a time, it won't be by much and that accumulated ice won't be going anywhere fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NAM colder. Ice storm baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NAM colder. Ice storm baby! with a high in that position, it's an ice storm 9 outta 10 times regardless the temps that the models show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I got down to 4 degrees this morning, My zone forecast is for just an inch or two of snow, then a short period of sleet before an extented period of Zr. I'm hoping that with temps expected in my area to be around the freezing mark that it will "rain" hard enough to lessen the ice problems. Zr at 25 is much worse than if it's 31 or 32. To me, I wouldn't want to be in some of those valleys north and west of MDT. Looks like a very serious situation up there regardless of how bad it gets in my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Don't look at the 6z NAM if you like electricity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Warning warning NAM says sound the Air Raid Sirens!!!! Wooooo oooooooooo woooooooooooooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Don't look at the 6z NAM if you like electricity. If you mean 12Z then yes. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Brutal. Now this is impressive. Anytime you see a 1030mb+ high anchored over the St. Lawrence River Valley in conjunction with Greenland blocking, the MA &NE are in for an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 It appears the NAM jacked up the snow for UNV. Much colder overall - haven't looked at the overall soundings but the 850s actually look snowy. Feel free to come on in and stomp all over these thoughts if I am full o' poopers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Now this is impressive. Anytime you see a 1030mb+ high anchored over the St. Lawrence River Valley in conjunction with Greenland blocking, the MA &NE are in for an event. yep, that's really all you need to see to know this is going to be a major ice storm...the models will sometimes underplay cold air with that high anchored there. expect to see temps trend down as we get closer to the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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