afvet89 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 when does anyone thing taht BGM will put up watches or warnings. it seems that they only have so many and do give them out until they are sure that something is going to happen. they will put out watches with their overnite package .By 5am they will be out for the public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Ron Dixon on abc27: 1-3" snow, maybe some sleet and then 40s for Friday-Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Ron Dixon on abc27: 1-3" snow, maybe some sleet and then 40s for Friday-Sunday. mid 30s look more likely according to the new gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 So what are we looking at in IPT? 1-3 Mon-Tues, and prbly 35-40ish and rain Wed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Wow the NWS is very bullish on ZR here in State College! Tuesday Night: Freezing rain. Low around 22. East wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. A blend of the 00z NAM and GFS could yield a very icy solution across much of central PA. As it is, the GFS is likely underdoing the low-level cold air... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 So what are we looking at in IPT? 1-3 Mon-Tues, and prbly 35-40ish and rain Wed? No chance at that. I expect areas north of 80 and higher elevations between 80 and 78 to stay below freezing. Maybe getting to 32-33 as the storm is ending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 being at the PA/NY border, you think I recieve ZR? I was thinking mainly snow that turns over to sleet, maybe i can see a total of 6-9" of snow? or more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 So what are we looking at in IPT? 1-3 Mon-Tues, and prbly 35-40ish and rain Wed? I would go with a 30/60/10 blend of precip.lol. thats 30%snow, 60 ice and 10 rain. lets say 3 inches of snow, .5 or .6 ice, and .1 or .2 of plain rain. does that make any sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 What did you use for those? Collecting some weather links.... http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NWS for MDT: Monday Night: Snow. Low around 20. Calm wind becoming east around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Tuesday: Snow before 1pm, then snow and freezing rain. High near 32. East wind between 3 and 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Tuesday Night: Freezing rain. Low around 26. East wind between 5 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Wednesday: Rain or freezing rain, becoming all rain after 1pm. High near 38. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 That is in total ,5-.75" of zr. Scary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Well its the GFS vs the NAM for me.. GFS says I get 7" of snow and the NAM says 15" of snow. I think the NAM handles the temperatures a little better, any mets suggest I listen to the GFS rather than the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Wow the NWS is very bullish on ZR here in State College! Tuesday Night: Freezing rain. Low around 22. East wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. A blend of the 00z NAM and GFS could yield a very icy solution across much of central PA. As it is, the GFS is likely underdoing the low-level cold air... Here's mine 30 miles down the interstate from State: Monday Night: Snow, mainly after 7pm. Low around 16. East wind between 3 and 8 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Tuesday: Snow before 1pm, then freezing rain likely. High near 29. Southeast wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Tuesday Night: Freezing rain. Low around 22. Southeast wind between 7 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Pretty much the same 22 degree nighttime low. I mean somethings gotta give there. There's either gonna be more sleet involved or if there's going to be freezing rain those temps aren't gonna last in the low to mid 20s for long. However the amount of time in between waves might allow surface temps to sneak up during the day Tuesday if we have any kind of a significant break and that might potentially yield more of an all zr/rain second wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The trend seems to be stronger and warmer. If I had to guess, which I stink at, I would say NWS drops WSW for all but Northern Strip of counties, goes with WWA for rest of commonwealth for 1-4 inches of snow followed by .10 to .20 accretion of ice....not looking like the biggie we thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The trend seems to be stronger and warmer. If I had to guess, which I stink at, I would say NWS drops WSW for all but Northern Strip of counties, goes with WWA for rest of commonwealth for 1-4 inches of snow followed by .10 to .20 accretion of ice....not looking like the biggie we thought. Only the GFS/GGEM have this trend. SREF and NAM are weaker and colder. Read the met posts in this thread! We don't have much of a chance at plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NAM. Major ice, some SREFS major ice. GFS minor to moderate ice, cmc rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Down to 21. Skies are clear. Could dip down pretty low tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The trend seems to be stronger and warmer. If I had to guess, which I stink at, I would say NWS drops WSW for all but Northern Strip of counties, goes with WWA for rest of commonwealth for 1-4 inches of snow followed by .10 to .20 accretion of ice....not looking like the biggie we thought. I really doubt they drop any WSW. I also don't think that tonight's runs were significantly warmer than earlier runs (other than maybe the 18z, but they were quite cold). The NWS knows what they're doing and in this setup with a strong/cold high pressure to the north they know the cold will be under-forecasted. It will be very difficult, in my opinion, to have any region in central PA see mainly rain. Places north of I-80 should stay all frozen/freezing. This still has all the makings of being the biggie we thought, so lets sit back and see what unfolds! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 EURO from hr54 to hr60 weakens the low about 8mb, from sub-996 to sub-1004. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Low gets sent down to DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Euro seems to be trending colder. And we all know that the euro is always way to warm at surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I really doubt they drop any WSW. I also don't think that tonight's runs were significantly warmer than earlier runs (other than maybe the 18z, but they were quite cold). The NWS knows what they're doing and in this setup with a strong/cold high pressure to the north they know the cold will be under-forecasted. It will be very difficult, in my opinion, to have any region in central PA see mainly rain. Places should stay all frozen/freezing north of I-80 . This still has all the makings of being the biggie we thought, so lets sit back and see what unfolds! I hardly ever ask IMBY questions but I'm trying to make plans during this time, In your opinion how much frozen precip stays at snow vs. sleet or ZR, I live directly on the NY/PA border? In my own opinion I would expect 7-10" of snow then change over to sleet, but I'm just curious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I hardly ever ask IMBY questions but I'm trying to make plans during this time, In your opinion how much frozen precip stays at snow vs. sleet or ZR, I live direcly on the NY/PA border? In my own opinion I would expect 7-10" of snow then change over to sleet, but I'm just curious I think your call seems pretty reasonable. If the colder NAM turns out to be correct, it could be mostly snow and you would get double digit snowfall before a changeover (if it even does change over). Looking at the GFS at face value, it may be more like 4-7" before sleet and even rain. At this point, I think the GFS will get colder. Especially now seeing the EURO is colder too. Good luck up there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I like how PHL almost stays below 32 but the valley doesn't. Ya that would happen. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I think your call seems pretty reasonable. If the colder NAM turns out to be correct, it could be mostly snow and you would get double digit snowfall before a changeover (if it even does change over). Looking at the GFS at face value, it may be more like 4-7" before sleet and even rain. At this point, I think the GFS will get colder. Especially now seeing the EURO is colder too. Good luck up there! Thanks I appreciate it! , hopefully we can stay all snow that would be amazing and totally surprise me. If I can get over a 12" of snow I would jump for joy. I just hope you guys stay out of the ice threat, that stuff is horrible to deal with, hopefully the Euro trends even colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Thanks I appreciate it! , hopefully we can stay all snow that would be amazing and totally surprise me. If I can get over a 12" of snow I would jump for joy. I just hope you guys stay out of the ice threat, that stuff is horrible to deal with, hopefully the Euro trends even colder Bring on the ice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I think your call seems pretty reasonable. If the colder NAM turns out to be correct, it could be mostly snow and you would get double digit snowfall before a changeover (if it even does change over). Looking at the GFS at face value, it may be more like 4-7" before sleet and even rain. At this point, I think the GFS will get colder. Especially now seeing the EURO is colder too. Good luck up there! Yea trying to judge from the Philly thread pbp it sounds as if the low attempts to secondary as I think I saw tombo mention about a 1004 over DC. Def a big step toward the NAM in that regard. Sounds like the Euro still evacuates the cold early in the game. If we do end up with a storm to try to transfer at around DC that would probably make for a ptype scenario like the colder NAM. And actually the GFS does do the same thing, except its right over PA where the "secondary" shows up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 18 degrees under clear skies. Predicted low 15. 7 more hours of cooling to go. We'll see how low we go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Hit 5.0º here this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 11 for the low in Hazleton. I'll eat a shoe if we break 32 on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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