MAG5035 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 SREFS a little colder again. Anyone want to take bets that the only reason they are still a little warm is cause the RSM's? Yea def a shade cooler. For the main event we now have a lot more probs for sleet in the ptype maps. Esp along a line from near or just south of State College over to Allentown and north of that line. Basically what JMister was saying about UNV maybe being more sleet than zr is getting some SREF support now. High freezing rain probs are now evident the whole duration of the main wave along the southern tier or two of counties even in the Philly region. To me, as long as the high pressure is there in a good position to provide the cold, this will be a classic snow to ice storm scenario with not very much of the plain rain to speak of until the very end of the event possibly. Folks north of I-80 a bit should stay mainly snow/sleet with the entire system, with perhaps a bit of a glaze of freezing rain. Along/just north of I-80 and the region between that and the turnpike and then I-78 should see the first snow wave, and then possibly start the second wave as snow or sleet..transitioning to a sleet/freezing rain mix, with the ridges of the Central PA ridge and valley/upper sus valley/Poconos seeing the highest freezing rain totals and all in that region possibly seeing some accumulation of sleet. The Laurel Highlands, and the region along/under the PA turnpike/I-78 east should see the second wave as primarily freezing rain/rain with the highest chance of seeing the worst ice totals. Especially in the Laurels. Far southwest PA underneath Pittsburgh should transition to rain after a couple inches from the first wave and advisory level freezing rain accretion. That's my initial take on rough p-type placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 14.4 here and just plunging. Yep, really started dropping here as well. 18° now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 14.4 here and just plunging. Ugh why is it always warm here. lol. NAM says lotta iceage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Harrisburg does not even get to freezing looking at the 2m 0z NAM 6hr plots. It could get nasty around here. Yes, MDT is f'd too. I'm in the city, which might save me a bit since our utilities are all underground and based in the capitol's grid system. I pray you, though, have a generator or fireplace. We don't have a fireplace ... which probably will be very bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Yes, MDT is f'd too. I'm in the city, which might save me a bit since our utilities are all underground and based in the capitol's grid system. I pray you, though, have a generator or fireplace. We don't have a fireplace ... which probably will be very bad. York the same? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Even though it's already bad on the NAM I still think it could be a bit colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NAM's not pretty, but it isn't necessarily a dire situation. Gonna bust out the Accupro maps for the two worst frames of the storm Hour 60 Hour 63 As you can see, MDT is actually sleet through hour 60 (hour 57 too) and then ZR for 63.. this run actually ended up being a pretty good illustration of what i was writing about the last 15 minutes in the previous post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 So here is the KUNV sounding for hour 60, right at the peak of the storm. I have been trying to read up on what the boundaries of a sleet vs. freezing rain profile looks like. It seems like if the freezing layer is deeper than 1km, and its cooler than a few degees C below 0, it becomes sleet. Does anyone know more on the subject, or have any examples of sleet/freezing rain profiles? I would really like to be able to determine IP vs ZR on skew-ts. Thanks! To me, this is a sleet profile: SFC 961 402 -3.8 -5.1 91 1.3 -4.3 116 14 272.4 272.9 271.0 279.8 2.71 2 950 491 -4.7 -5.6 93 0.9 -5.1 117 18 272.4 272.8 270.9 279.6 2.64 3 900 914 -6.3 -6.4 99 0.1 -6.4 129 35 275.0 275.4 272.5 282.3 2.62 4 850 1365 -1.5 -1.5 100 0.0 -1.6 169 44 284.5 285.2 279.5 295.9 4.01 5 800 1851 1.8 1.8 100 0.0 1.8 198 70 293.1 294.0 284.9 308.9 5.45 6 750 2375 3.0 2.9 100 0.0 2.9 216 85 299.8 301.0 288.3 318.5 6.31 7 700 2932 0.6 0.6 99 0.1 0.6 231 85 303.2 304.2 288.9 320.4 5.70 8 650 3524 -2.7 -2.7 100 0.0 -2.7 243 77 305.9 306.8 288.9 320.7 4.82 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NAM's not pretty, but it isn't necessarily a dire situation. Gonna bust out the Accupro maps for the two worst frames of the storm Hour 60 Hour 63 As you can see, MDT is actually sleet through hour 60 (hour 57 too) and then ZR for 63.. this run actually ended up being a pretty good illustration of what i was writing about the last 15 minutes in the previous post. Wow, those maps are textbook of your post earlier. Great job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 So I'm at about 1600' of elevation and at the southwestern edge of the Poconos. Am I more likely to see sleet or freezing rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 So here is the KUNV sounding for hour 60, right at the peak of the storm. I have been trying to read up on what the boundaries of a sleet vs. freezing rain profile looks like. It seems like if the freezing layer is deeper than 1km, and its cooler than a few degees C below 0, it becomes sleet. Does anyone know more on the subject, or have any examples of sleet/freezing rain profiles? I would really like to be able to determine IP vs ZR on skew-ts. Thanks! To me, this is a sleet profile: SFC 961 402 -3.8 -5.1 91 1.3 -4.3 116 14 272.4 272.9 271.0 279.8 2.71 2 950 491 -4.7 -5.6 93 0.9 -5.1 117 18 272.4 272.8 270.9 279.6 2.64 3 900 914 -6.3 -6.4 99 0.1 -6.4 129 35 275.0 275.4 272.5 282.3 2.62 4 850 1365 -1.5 -1.5 100 0.0 -1.6 169 44 284.5 285.2 279.5 295.9 4.01 5 800 1851 1.8 1.8 100 0.0 1.8 198 70 293.1 294.0 284.9 308.9 5.45 6 750 2375 3.0 2.9 100 0.0 2.9 216 85 299.8 301.0 288.3 318.5 6.31 7 700 2932 0.6 0.6 99 0.1 0.6 231 85 303.2 304.2 288.9 320.4 5.70 8 650 3524 -2.7 -2.7 100 0.0 -2.7 243 77 305.9 306.8 288.9 320.7 4.82 Sleet profiles are usually when there is only a small piece of the atmosphere that is above freezing, and high enough so that the raindrop has time to refreeze before it reaches the surface. Freezing rain profiles usually have a warmer (sometimes over 5 degrees C) and deeper layer of above freezing air, and it's closer to the ground which keeps the drop in liquid form until it contacts the surface. I would agree, the sounding you have there looks like sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 So here is the KUNV sounding for hour 60, right at the peak of the storm. I have been trying to read up on what the boundaries of a sleet vs. freezing rain profile looks like. It seems like if the freezing layer is deeper than 1km, and its cooler than a few degees C below 0, it becomes sleet. Does anyone know more on the subject, or have any examples of sleet/freezing rain profiles? I would really like to be able to determine IP vs ZR on skew-ts. Thanks! To me, this is a sleet profile: SFC 961 402 -3.8 -5.1 91 1.3 -4.3 116 14 272.4 272.9 271.0 279.8 2.71 2 950 491 -4.7 -5.6 93 0.9 -5.1 117 18 272.4 272.8 270.9 279.6 2.64 3 900 914 -6.3 -6.4 99 0.1 -6.4 129 35 275.0 275.4 272.5 282.3 2.62 4 850 1365 -1.5 -1.5 100 0.0 -1.6 169 44 284.5 285.2 279.5 295.9 4.01 5 800 1851 1.8 1.8 100 0.0 1.8 198 70 293.1 294.0 284.9 308.9 5.45 6 750 2375 3.0 2.9 100 0.0 2.9 216 85 299.8 301.0 288.3 318.5 6.31 7 700 2932 0.6 0.6 99 0.1 0.6 231 85 303.2 304.2 288.9 320.4 5.70 8 650 3524 -2.7 -2.7 100 0.0 -2.7 243 77 305.9 306.8 288.9 320.7 4.82 Yea, that profile would def support sleet considering the column is below zero from 850 down, and from 900 down it is well below freezing. And thats what the accupro maps print out on their p-type maps for the UNV area. If you click on skew-T east on Ewall it'll give you the skew-T diagram for each hour of the 0z and 12z NAM and GFS runs. And its got the more local stations like UNV. I'm still waiting for the new 0z NAM to see the skew T's on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 0z nam gives me 6.6 of snow then 1" of frozen precip. it only gives UNV 1.2 of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 0z nam gives me 6.6 of snow then 1" of frozen precip. it only gives UNV 1.2 of snow. What did you use for those? Collecting some weather links.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 We had all better hope it's sleet(even though sleet is really really boring)....if that comes down as liquid a lot of us are in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Sorry to ask again -- but would an elevation of 1,600' be more likely to have sleet or ZR in this situation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Sorry to ask again -- but would an elevation of 1,600' be more likely to have sleet or ZR in this situation? it'd probably depend on the depth of the cold air. If it were something like the UNV sounding in your area..which it should be, then i'd think you'd have a good chance of seeing sleet or a sleet/zr combo. The highest elevations of the Pocono's probably will be where the threat of mainly freezing rain is for your area if the NAM is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 it'd probably depend on the depth of the cold air. If it were something like the UNV sounding in your area..which it should be, then i'd think you'd have a good chance of seeing sleet or a sleet/zr combo. The highest elevations of the Pocono's probably will be where the threat of mainly freezing rain is for your area if the NAM is correct. SLeet is pretty meh. I don't know what to think at this point though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 GFS says "screw this, I'm just going rain on you all!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I just love these model. The closer we get the further apart they go all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Strange. Low jumps like 700 miles in 6 hrs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Strange. Low jumps like 700 miles in 6 hrs.. Normal troubles with timing and speed of secondary formation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I'd sign up for the GFS in a heartbeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The GFS has a 1032ish high over the top just above Maine, I really don't buy the all rain for 75% of PA solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The GFS has a 1032ish high over the top just above Maine, I really don't buy the all rain for 75% of PA solution. Ya me either. We will really have to wait to we get inside 48hrs till we get good temp profiles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The GFS has a 1032ish high over the top just above Maine, I really don't buy the all rain for 75% of PA solution. Me neither. Think northern Pa will stay below freezing till the very end of the storm just as the precip is ending. Thinking .1-.2 of plain rain for northern Pa after a few inches of snow and a bunch of ice. Just my guess now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted January 31, 2011 Author Share Posted January 31, 2011 when does anyone think that BGM will put up watches or warnings. it seems that they only have so many and do give them out until they are sure that something is going to happen. Edit spelling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 The GFS has a 1032ish high over the top just above Maine, I really don't buy the all rain for 75% of PA solution. Agreed...globals do pretty bad on picking up LL cold until late in the game I do believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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