canderson Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Well CTP hasn't hoisted/mentioned ice storm warnings. That's a positive, I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Well CTP hasn't hoisted/mentioned ice storm warnings. That's a positive, I suppose. They may be waiting to see what the 0z and/or 6z model suite shows. With the trend south/colder on 18z, I'd say it's prudent for them to wait a bit on the ice storm warnings to see what happens. Will they be colder/snowier, or will they warmer with a bigger threat for freezing rain? The issued winter storm watch will have already alerted the public to the potential for upcoming hazardous conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Well CTP hasn't hoisted/mentioned ice storm warnings. That's a positive, I suppose. Since there is a snow aspect it would be winter storm warning. It needs to be pure ice for an ice storm warning. So we could go from winter storm warning to ice storm warning after the snow stops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 CTP issues a WSW before other regional offices. And a voice from the wilderness was heard... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Since there is a snow aspect it would be winter storm warning. It needs to be pure ice for an ice storm warning. So we could go from winter storm warning to ice storm warning after the snow stops. Didn't know that, figured you could get ice/winter storm warnings at the same time. thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 CTP issues a WSW before other regional offices. And a voice from the wilderness was heard... NWS pitt was first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Didn't know that, figured you could get ice/winter storm warnings at the same time. thanks. Well you probably could but, there is no such thing as Ice storm watch. lol For (Mainly) Ice: <li>Ice Storm Warning: 1/4" or more of ice accumulation from freezing rain (See a map of Ice Storm Warning thresholds for all of PA)<li>Freezing Rain Advisory: <1/4" of ice accumulation (See a map of Freezing Rain Advisory thresholds for all of PA) Combinations of Winter Weather Hazards: <li>Blizzard Warning: Sustained or frequent gusts to 35 mph or greater AND considerable falling and/or blowing snow. These conditions must last for AT LEAST 3 hrs. (Usually associated w/6+ inches of snowfall in central PA)<li>Blizzard Watch: Possibility that Blizzard Warning Criteria may be met at longer ranges (24 to 48 hrs out).<li>Winter Storm Warning: either 6 inches or more of snow w/some ice accum. or 1/4" ice + any snow/sleet.<li>Winter Storm Watch: Possibility that Winter Storm or Ice Warning Criteria may be met at longer ranges (24 to 48 hrs out). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jen2swt Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Do you forsee an ice warning being issued? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Do you forsee an ice warning being issued? If things continue to look the way they are and trend colder then yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 1999 all over? JANUARY 1999 WEATHER REMARKS HAGERSTOWN 1E MARYLANDDAY 1st: Cold and windy WINTER STORM / ICE STORM / DAMAGE 2nd: Snow began shortly after 8am. Snow varied in intensity from none to moderate at times was snowing the heaviest between 9-10am. 1.8" of new snow. Sleet and freezing rain began again around 8pm and quickly began building up on trees and powerlines as the temps were still in the teens. The temperature rose to 20 F. by midnight. .26" of melted precip. 3rd: Sleet and heavy freezing rain overnight with heavy ice accumulation on everything. Large tree limbs and powerlines were snapping everywhere. Gusty winds also were making the situation worse. The temperature gradually rose overnight to 32 F. by dawn. 1.43" of freezing rain fell since midnight and ended by 8am 0.3" of solid ice accumulation. Dense fog rolled in all morning. Clearing breezy and warmer this afternoon temp got up to 41 F. and almost all of the ice melted from the trees and wires. 1.5" + ZR and that was hagerstown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Here's Eric Horst's latest post, as of 2 p.m. today: 2:00pm Sunday update:This week will serve up a storm the like I've been waiting for all winter, with the storm track cutting west of us towards the Great Lakes. This track will bring a lot of warm, moist air northward from the Gulf of Mexico; the problem is the deep snowcover in many areas north of I-70 combined with an Arctic high pressure in place across southern Canada. The result will be an icy, mess for many areas from the Plains to the Midwest and Ohio Valley into the interior of the Mid-Atlantic region. Right now, I see this storm coming at us in two pieces. The first piece will be rather weak, but it will arrive Monday night when there's still deep cold air over the Commonwealth. The result will likely be a modest 1 to 4 inch snowfall by early Tuesday--the snow may end as a period of sleet or freezing rain around mid-morning Tuesday. After an extended lull, during which only some spotty freezing drizzle will fall, heavier precipitation will arrive Tuesday night into Wednesday. This time there will be enough warm air aloft to produce rain across at least the southern half of PA; unfortunately, low-level temps will linger below freezing...so a significant ice storm is possible, especially across the ridge-valley region of central PA. Enough cold air will also likely hold in the Susquehanna Valley, and right down the I-81 corridor into southern VA, to produce a 6- to 12-hour period of icing (perhaps a 1/4" of more in some locaitons). The Lancaster area will be right in the thick of things, although our temps may nose just above freezing on Wednesday...or maybe not! With the system still a few days away, these details can change somewhat; but it's looking quite messy from Monday night right into Wednesday morning. No rest for the weary meteorologist... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Here's Eric Horst's latest post, as of 2 p.m. today: lol I love how he says..Or Maybe Not! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Notice anything now on the watches/warnings map? Yep -- the only PA counties lacking a watch are the BGM counties...man they are slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 SREFS a little colder again. Anyone want to take bets that the only reason they are still a little warm is cause the RSM's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 SREFS a little colder again. Anyone want to take bets that the only reason they are still a little warm is cause the RSM's? Is there still a chance that we stay mostly snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Is there still a chance that we stay mostly snow? I believe, correct me if I'm wrong, is the warm air aloft is being rushed in no matter what is happening at the surface. The colder it gets at the surface means probably more sleet, not more slow, than zr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Is there still a chance that we stay mostly snow? No way. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 NAM cut back big time on the overunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 00z NAM looking more like its 12z run than 18z run. Also similar to the 21z SREFs at least judging by the placement of the surface low at 48 hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Yea, NAM is quite a bit warmer too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Low starts to struggle as it enters Ohio...still at around 1002. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Still stays below freezing this run. Kinda looks a bit whacky. But, hey i'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Wow....this has major ZR storm written all over it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Hr63..may as well kiss my power goodbye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Just a disaster on the 0z NAM. Disaster. 1.00+ of ice probably. 32 line never even sniffs I-80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Isn't it supposed to be cold tonight? I'm still at 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Wow....really? This is getting uglier by the run...not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Looks like the zr "jackpot" is Berks n/w to 80. It is a bit weird we were joking last weekend about calling this the PSUhazleton storm and Hazlwton might be bullseye for zr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Isn't it supposed to be cold tonight? I'm still at 30. 14.4 here and just plunging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Looks like the zr "jackpot" is Berks n/w to 80. It is a bit weird we were joking last weekend about calling this the PSUhazleton storm and Hazlwton might be bullseye for zr. Harrisburg does not even get to freezing looking at the 2m 0z NAM 6hr plots. It could get nasty around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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