NortheastPAWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The NAM just killed the first low over Ohio. Went from sub-1000 to sub-1004. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 any mets care to chime in if this scenario is possible.Would luv to hear your opinions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Sorry for the dumb post but on phone; what does it have for MDT - more snow or more zr? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 What did the EURO have? Euro's still pretty warm with this event after the initial wave, most of PA would be probably plain rain except for far northeast PA toward's BGM's PA counties which are still cold enough for some freezing rain. Probably a bit generous on the surface warmth IMO. While i'm on the Euro i might as well mention the infamous possible storm at the end of the week.. cuz it shows up on todays 12z Euro, probably a bit more than the Philly-NYC crowd wants. Actually has a weak low west of the mountains with an even weaker coastal low which eventually takes over. Never gets below 1000mb, and would be a light to moderate precip event. places southeast of Harrisburg probably has mixing issues going over to snow while most everyone else would have a wet snowfall type event. I-95 corridor looks like rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Euro's still pretty warm with this event after the initial wave, most of PA would be probably plain rain except for far northeast PA toward's BGM's PA counties which are still cold enough for some freezing rain. Probably a bit generous on the surface warmth IMO. While i'm on the Euro i might as well mention the infamous possible storm at the end of the week.. cuz it shows up on todays 12z Euro, probably a bit more than the Philly-NYC crowd wants. Actually has a weak low west of the mountains with an even weaker coastal low which eventually takes over. Never gets below 1000mb, and would be a light to moderate precip event. places southeast of Harrisburg probably has mixing issues going over to snow while most everyone else would have a wet snowfall type event. I-95 corridor looks like rain. Hey Mag, do u give any creedence to the new NAM , just ur 2cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 any mets care to chime in if this scenario is possible.Would luv to hear your opinions. This is definite a possible scenario. With a 1030+ mb high to our north, the cold air at the surface is going to be very hard to move. The rest depends on that transfer from the primary to the secondary low. Since the transfer is late and the cold air is continually being funneled down, we should see a fair amount of overrunning precip before getting dryslotted when the transfer occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Euro's still pretty warm with this event after the initial wave, most of PA would be probably plain rain except for far northeast PA toward's BGM's PA counties which are still cold enough for some freezing rain. Probably a bit generous on the surface warmth IMO. While i'm on the Euro i might as well mention the infamous possible storm at the end of the week.. cuz it shows up on todays 12z Euro, probably a bit more than the Philly-NYC crowd wants. Actually has a weak low west of the mountains with an even weaker coastal low which eventually takes over. Never gets below 1000mb, and would be a light to moderate precip event. places southeast of Harrisburg probably has mixing issues going over to snow while most everyone else would have a wet snowfall type event. I-95 corridor looks like rain. You beat me to it. That put all of us into the game for like a 4-6 type event with the possible exception of York/Lancaster due to the mixing, if I am reading right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Hey Mag, do u give any creedence to the new NAM , just ur 2cents. You would love a combo of the NAM in short term and Euro next weekend. So would I. Let's hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Euro's still pretty warm with this event after the initial wave, most of PA would be probably plain rain except for far northeast PA toward's BGM's PA counties which are still cold enough for some freezing rain. Probably a bit generous on the surface warmth IMO. While i'm on the Euro i might as well mention the infamous possible storm at the end of the week.. cuz it shows up on todays 12z Euro, probably a bit more than the Philly-NYC crowd wants. Actually has a weak low west of the mountains with an even weaker coastal low which eventually takes over. Never gets below 1000mb, and would be a light to moderate precip event. places southeast of Harrisburg probably has mixing issues going over to snow while most everyone else would have a wet snowfall type event. I-95 corridor looks like rain. Well I'm technically in BGM's forecast area so that could be big for me. When you say "generous", do you mean it's too warm? I'm really not stoked about the end of the week threat. If it comes west temps are dicey, and if it stays cold enough we probably will be too far west for good snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Sorry for the dumb post but on phone; what does it have for MDT - more snow or more zr? Well on this particular run, it def has trended colder for all of Pa. Looks like MDT is basically on the snow/ice line the majority of the storm. Trying to pin it down any more would be extremely tough at this point and time. Maybe all the models will catch on to the strength of the high to the north and it will continue to provide a colder scenario for all of us.More snow than ice or even rain. This will def be interesting how it all plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 If the 18Z NAM is right I would sh** myself!! Thats all snow for northern half of pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The NAM just killed the first low over Ohio. Went from sub-1000 to sub-1004. any mets care to chime in if this scenario is possible.Would luv to hear your opinions. Oh wow, the 18z NAM attempts to form a secondary on the coast. If that happens that would be significant wrt to anchoring deeper cold over the central counties and keeping precip alot more frozen than otherwise. There is a nicely placed high over maine although only 1024mb, On the other hand the storms only getting to just a shade under 1000mb. Very intriguing, though i'd like to see that carry onto other models and the 0z suite before really jumping on it. Like i've been saying, where the axis of the heavier snowfall from the first wave is going to be very important in seeing what part of the region sees the heaviest snow/ice. Its basically marking where the sharp boundary is between the cold air from Canada and the warmer air to the south. If we see snow blossom over say northern PA and leaves central and southern out, then a more rain/freezing rain scenario like the Euro is likely to come of it. If we actually see heavier snow involve folks between 80 and the turnpike or even down to the m/d line then it could imply the boundary is further south and that the low might attempt to do what the 18z NAM is trying. The SREF's have been on the former for awhile, keeping higher accum probs in northern PA. The 15z SREFs actually brought that south a bit into some of the central counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 nam BUFKIT FOR duj the output doesnt look good? am i looking at the right run? http://www.meteor.ia...=namm&site=kduj edit: i think this may be the 6z run? edit 2: it is...looks like it hasnt updated yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 18z NAM KMDT = 1.217in of all freezing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 GFS far less aggressive with the overunning than the NAM. But it's cooler in the eastern half of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Colder again. This is going to be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Low is further south than 12z, thus cooling off the northern half of PA. Surface line goes from NY/PA border at 12z/78 to the I-80 corridor at 18z/72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 18z NAM KMDT = 1.217in of all freezing rain I don't like to curse publicly, but ****. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Colder again. This is going to be interesting. Low is further south than 12z, thus cooling off the northern half of PA. Surface line goes from NY/PA border at 12z/78 to the I-80 corridor at 18z/72. Wow, and it trended toward the Euro bigtime for the weekend storm. Nice run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 GFS also gives most of the area 3-6" from the weekend event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I am beginning to think more and more that some regions in central PA will be dealing more with sleet than ZR. This is based on past experiences at PSU where ZR has underperformed due to a shallower-than-expected warm layer (usually above 850mb). This can be seen on the latest 18z NAM profile for KUNV showing a warm layer from around 800mb to 875mb. But with the air below that level as cold as -8C, the rain will have plenty of time to freeze into pellets rather than be freezing rain. Of course the HPC seems to think the freezing rain threat is very serious, so I may be wrong. Just something to look into over the next few model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I am beginning to think more and more that some regions in central PA will be dealing more with sleet than ZR. This is based on past experiences at PSU where ZR has underperformed due to a shallower-than-expected warm layer (usually above 850mb). This can be seen on the latest 18z NAM profile for KUNV showing a warm layer from around 800mb to 875mb. But with the air below that level as cold as -8C, the rain will have plenty of time to freeze into pellets rather than be freezing rain. Of course the HPC seems to think the freezing rain threat is very serious, so I may be wrong. Just something to look into over the next few model runs. Is the 18z NAM - run starting to set a trend? I know in the past people have said it only the 18z. And they have said wait till the 00z. Agree with your thinking...with the air below that level as cold as -8C, the rain will have plenty of time to freeze into pellets rather than be freezing rain. Thanks for your input!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 How is this looking for York? More ice than rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 While using 18z runs to look for trends is usually ill-advised, it is interesting that both the NAM and GFS were quite a bit colder than their previous runs. So I would wait for other guidance at 00z to say if there are any real trends. Definitely look for the placement and strength of the High. That will be key for low-level cold throughout the region. And yes, Storm Clouds, according to the 18z runs it does look more icy than rainy for York. Again, I would wait for 00z to be more sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Thanks for your input, and joining in on this thread. We are building an amazing , expert-filled group here, guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 While using 18z runs to look for trends is usually ill-advised, it is interesting that both the NAM and GFS were quite a bit colder than their previous runs. So I would wait for other guidance at 00z to say if there are any real trends. Definitely look for the placement and strength of the High. That will be key for low-level cold throughout the region. And yes, Storm Clouds, according to the 18z runs it does look more icy than rainy for York. Again, I would wait for 00z to be more sure. Thanks for answering my question. I really hope we can pull off getting more snow than ice...I don't want to lose power! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Is the 18z NAM - run starting to set a trend? I know in the past people have said it only the 18z. And they have said wait till the 00z. Agree with your thinking...with the air below that level as cold as -8C, the rain will have plenty of time to freeze into pellets rather than be freezing rain. Thanks for your input!! I don't mind 18z runs withing a day or two of the event. Outside of that window, you can get some wacky solutions on the 18z runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Evening update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 000WWUS41 KCTP 310018WSWCTPURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA718 PM EST SUN JAN 30 2011...A WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION BEGINNING MONDAYNIGHT...AND LAST INTO WEDNESDAY...PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066-310830-/O.NEW.KCTP.WS.A.0002.110201T0600Z-110202T1800Z/WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARREN...BRADFORD...COUDERSPORT...ST. MARYS...RIDGWAY...EMPORIUM...RENOVO...DUBOIS...CLEARFIELD...PHILIPSBURG...STATE COLLEGE...JOHNSTOWN...ALTOONA...HUNTINGDON...MOUNT UNION...LEWISTOWN...MIFFLINTOWN...SOMERSET...BEDFORD...MCCONNELLSBURG...CHAMBERSBURG...MANSFIELD...WELLSBORO...LAPORTE...LOCK HAVEN...WILLIAMSPORT...LEWISBURG...SELINSGROVE...DANVILLE...SUNBURY...SHAMOKIN...BLOOMSBURG...NEWPORT...HARRISBURG...HERSHEY...POTTSVILLE...LEBANON...CARLISLE...GETTYSBURG...YORK...LANCASTER 718 PM EST SUN JAN 30 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGHWEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGHWEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.* LOCATION...CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.* PRECIPITATION TYPE...A WINTRY MIX...STARTING OUT AS SNOW...CHANGING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY.* ACCUMULATIONS...SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE BEFORE MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.* TIMING...BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT...LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY.* IMPACTS...COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT TRAVEL DUE TO SNOW AND ICE COVERED ROADS. POWER OUTAGES ALSO POSSIBLE DUE TO ACCRETIONS OF FREEZING RAIN ON TREE LIMBS WHICH COULD KNOCK DOWN POWER LINES.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTSNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. STAYTUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHERINFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSOBE FOUND AT...WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jen2swt Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046- 049>053-056>059-063>066-310830- /O.NEW.KCTP.WS.A.0002.110201T0600Z-110202T1800Z/ WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD- NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN- JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING- SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR- NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON- CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARREN...BRADFORD...COUDERSPORT... ST. MARYS...RIDGWAY...EMPORIUM...RENOVO...DUBOIS...CLEARFIELD... PHILIPSBURG...STATE COLLEGE...JOHNSTOWN...ALTOONA...HUNTINGDON... MOUNT UNION...LEWISTOWN...MIFFLINTOWN...SOMERSET...BEDFORD... MCCONNELLSBURG...CHAMBERSBURG...MANSFIELD...WELLSBORO...LAPORTE... LOCK HAVEN...WILLIAMSPORT...LEWISBURG...SELINSGROVE...DANVILLE... SUNBURY...SHAMOKIN...BLOOMSBURG...NEWPORT...HARRISBURG... HERSHEY...POTTSVILLE...LEBANON...CARLISLE...GETTYSBURG...YORK... LANCASTER 718 PM EST SUN JAN 30 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * LOCATION...CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...A WINTRY MIX...STARTING OUT AS SNOW...CHANGING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY. * ACCUMULATIONS...SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE BEFORE MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. * TIMING...BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT...LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY. * IMPACTS...COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT TRAVEL DUE TO SNOW AND ICE COVERED ROADS. POWER OUTAGES ALSO POSSIBLE DUE TO ACCRETIONS OF FREEZING RAIN ON TREE LIMBS WHICH COULD KNOCK DOWN POWER LINES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT...WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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