jm1220 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The thing that makes me more upset is I have to sit at a high of 23 degrees wednesday while I watch sleet ping off my window pane ....If there was any term I hated more in meterology it would be warm air aloft! It's still better than the ton of rain I'll probably get here on Long Island. I just hope the temp doesn't spike up and cause a huge snowmelt. It already happened once a little over a week ago and it wasn't pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 It's still better than the ton of rain I'll probably get here on Long Island. I just hope the temp doesn't spike up and cause a huge snowmelt. It already happened once a little over a week ago and it wasn't pretty. how much snow is on the ground out on LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 NWS chicago BETWEEN THE INITIAL LIGHTER SNOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING... THE HEAVY SNOWFALL FROM THE MAJOR WINTER STORM DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THE INCREASINGLY INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPING DURING WEDNESDAY...IN EXCESS OF A FOOT AND A HALF OR MORE OF SNOW WILL NOT BE UNCOMMON OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA. SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE PROBABLE AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM TUESDAY NIGHT. (im jealous) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 NWS chicago BETWEEN THE INITIAL LIGHTER SNOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING... THE HEAVY SNOWFALL FROM THE MAJOR WINTER STORM DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THE INCREASINGLY INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPING DURING WEDNESDAY...IN EXCESS OF A FOOT AND A HALF OR MORE OF SNOW WILL NOT BE UNCOMMON OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA. SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE PROBABLE AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM TUESDAY NIGHT. (im jealous) Me too! My aunt lives right smack dab in the middle of the Blizzard Watch! I keep calling her every 10 minutes saying "storm of the year for you, take pictures for me!" LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jen2swt Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Thundersnow for them? She's lucky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Thundersnow for them? She's lucky If I didn't have school tomorrow, I would be driving the 12 hour drive to her house right now lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 If I didn't have school tomorrow, I would be driving the 12 hour drive to her house right now lol! that flu bug is going around right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jen2swt Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 If I didn't have school tomorrow, I would be driving the 12 hour drive to her house right now lol! No doubt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 ICE .25 PROB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheNorthMTN Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Right in the bullseye, guess I better get some gas cans and the generator ready.... ICE .25 PROB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jen2swt Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yeah my friend is in Missouri and she's slated to get 15" or more...MAN....soo jealous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 yeah man, it really is amazing how we miss storm after storm just to our south and east.Now this one misses to our north bringin us alot of ice.What does it take anymore to get central Pa in the bullseye for a nice snowstorm, is it even possible?lol This made me laugh. After seeing the AccuWx graphic over in the NYC/Philly forum, I was feeling and thinking the same way, but kept it to myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 SREFS starting to sense colder air. RSM really skews the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 CTP updated short term: .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...-- Changed Discussion --MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN-UP FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY MONDAY...LOCKING IN THE RATHER DEEP COLD AIR. THE FIRST SLUG OF MOISTURE ORIGINATING IN THE GULF WILL SURGE NE OVER THE SRN EXTENT OF THE COLD SFC HIGH VIA THE NOSE OF A 30-35KT SWRLY LLJ. CLOUDS WILL LOWER/THICKEN RAPIDLY LATE MONDAY AND EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. WET BULB TEMPS STAY SEVERAL DEG C OR MORE BELOW ZERO MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE BULK OF THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND RESULTANT QPF PUSHES ACROSS THE CWA LEADING TO A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL ANYWHERE BETWEEN 2 AND 6 INCHES BY MID AFTERNOON TUESDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH RESPECT TO THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE QPF AXIS. MEAN 24-HOUR QPF ENDING AT 00Z WEDNESDAY IS 4-6 TENTHS...WITH THE GFS/SREF COMBO WEIGHTED TWD THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES...WHILE THE STRONGEST LLVL ASCENT OVER THE COLD DOME /AND STRIPE OF HEAVIEST FROM THE 12Z NAM/ RESIDES ACROSS SOUTHERN PA INTO THE LEHIGH VALLEY. WE DISCUSSED A POSSIBLE WINTER STORM WATCH ISSUANCE WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES A SHORT TIME AGO...BUT DECIDED TO HOLD OFF FOR ANOTHER MODEL RUN. THE ALTERNATE ROUTE WOULD LEAD US TO BLANKETING TOO MUCH OF THE CWA WITH A WATCH FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE /BORDERLINE/ 12-24 HOUR WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL...AND HAVE TO WAFFLE ON MANY FACETS OF THE FORECAST SHOULD QPF AMTS INCREASE... OR THE MODEL CONSENSUS AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW GREATLY SHIFT. A BIT OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR SW ZONES TWD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AS A SLIVER OF WARMER AIR ALOFT /WET BULBS JUST ABOVE ZERO C/ GLIDES NWD IN THE 3-6 KFT AGL LAYER. MAX TEMPS MONDAY WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN THE NORTH...TO THE MID 20S NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE. TEMPS SHOULD FALL BY 5-7F EARLY MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE LEVELING OFF AS STEADIER/HEAVIER PRECIP SPREADS NE INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.-- End Changed Discussion -- And this is just the thoughts for the first round, round two must be coming in the soon to be updated long term. What an impending mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 What did the EURO have? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 the 18z nam above would give at least central Pa north of 80 about 6 inches of snow before the main low moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 What did the EURO have? Stuff best served for sweet tea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 ummm HOLY Now this is what I am talking about! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 NAM is still snow for most of C PA at hr69. WTF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Please let this happen! Please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 ummm HOLY Now this is what I am talking about! It's a scary looking run so far. Like I said earlier, the NAM is the best model when it comes to cold-air damming situations, and the cold air just isn't budging. In fact, it looks like the precip is hard enough at the onset of the second event to cool the column down, given the 850s migration to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 It's a scary looking run so far. Like I said earlier, the NAM is the best model when it comes to cold-air damming situations, and the cold air just isn't budging. In fact, it looks like the precip is hard enough at the onset of the second event to cool the column down, given the 850s migration to the south. That high is strong as well on this run and in a great position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 so, the i have no idea beat keeps getting pounded.......good tme ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 NAM is still snow for most of C PA at hr69. WTF? Your right, looks like areas north and east of UNV would pick up a couple inches of additional snow as the precip from the main low moves in. Of course its the NAM so lets take this with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Ummm...NAM stays all snow for northern PA. Wow. Crazy run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 That high is strong as well on this run and in a great position. Not only that, but it looks like the secondary develops a bit earlier, which may help keep the cold locked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 AHH WTFFFF is going on? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 So CTP was like one more model run then maybe watches. What will they do after this run? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.