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Central PA Late January Thread Part III


Rick G

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The thing that makes me more upset is I have to sit at a high of 23 degrees wednesday while I watch sleet ping off my window pane :lightning: ....If there was any term I hated more in meterology it would be warm air aloft!

It's still better than the ton of rain I'll probably get here on Long Island. I just hope the temp doesn't spike up and cause a huge snowmelt. It already happened once a little over a week ago and it wasn't pretty.

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NWS chicago

BETWEEN THE INITIAL LIGHTER SNOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING...

THE HEAVY SNOWFALL FROM THE MAJOR WINTER STORM DURING TUESDAY

AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THE INCREASINGLY INTENSE

LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPING DURING WEDNESDAY...IN EXCESS OF A FOOT

AND A HALF OR MORE OF SNOW WILL NOT BE UNCOMMON OVER MUCH OF

NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA. SNOWFALL RATES UP TO

3 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE PROBABLE AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM

TUESDAY NIGHT.

(im jealous)

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NWS chicago

BETWEEN THE INITIAL LIGHTER SNOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING...

THE HEAVY SNOWFALL FROM THE MAJOR WINTER STORM DURING TUESDAY

AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THE INCREASINGLY INTENSE

LAKE EFFECT SNOW DEVELOPING DURING WEDNESDAY...IN EXCESS OF A FOOT

AND A HALF OR MORE OF SNOW WILL NOT BE UNCOMMON OVER MUCH OF

NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA. SNOWFALL RATES UP TO

3 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE PROBABLE AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM

TUESDAY NIGHT.

(im jealous)

Me too! :thumbsdown: My aunt lives right smack dab in the middle of the Blizzard Watch! I keep calling her every 10 minutes saying "storm of the year for you, take pictures for me!" LOL!:lmao:

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yeah man, it really is amazing how we miss storm after storm just to our south and east.Now this one misses to our north bringin us alot of ice.What does it take anymore to get central Pa in the bullseye for a nice snowstorm, is it even possible?lol

This made me laugh. After seeing the AccuWx graphic over in the NYC/Philly forum, I was feeling and thinking the same way, but kept it to myself.

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CTP updated short term:

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

-- Changed Discussion --MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN-UP FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY

MONDAY...LOCKING IN THE RATHER DEEP COLD AIR.

THE FIRST SLUG OF MOISTURE ORIGINATING IN THE GULF WILL SURGE NE

OVER THE SRN EXTENT OF THE COLD SFC HIGH VIA THE NOSE OF A 30-35KT

SWRLY LLJ. CLOUDS WILL LOWER/THICKEN RAPIDLY LATE MONDAY AND EARLY

MONDAY NIGHT. WET BULB TEMPS STAY SEVERAL DEG C OR MORE BELOW ZERO

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE BULK OF THE ISENTROPIC

LIFT AND RESULTANT QPF PUSHES ACROSS THE CWA LEADING TO A

WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL ANYWHERE BETWEEN 2 AND 6 INCHES BY MID

AFTERNOON TUESDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH RESPECT TO

THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE QPF AXIS. MEAN 24-HOUR QPF ENDING AT

00Z WEDNESDAY IS 4-6 TENTHS...WITH THE GFS/SREF COMBO WEIGHTED TWD

THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES...WHILE THE STRONGEST LLVL ASCENT

OVER THE COLD DOME /AND STRIPE OF HEAVIEST FROM THE 12Z NAM/

RESIDES ACROSS SOUTHERN PA INTO THE LEHIGH VALLEY.

WE DISCUSSED A POSSIBLE WINTER STORM WATCH ISSUANCE WITH SURROUNDING

OFFICES A SHORT TIME AGO...BUT DECIDED TO HOLD OFF FOR ANOTHER MODEL

RUN. THE ALTERNATE ROUTE WOULD LEAD US TO BLANKETING TOO MUCH OF THE

CWA WITH A WATCH FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE /BORDERLINE/ 12-24 HOUR

WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL...AND HAVE TO WAFFLE ON MANY FACETS OF THE

FORECAST SHOULD QPF AMTS INCREASE... OR THE MODEL CONSENSUS AXIS OF

HEAVIEST SNOW GREATLY SHIFT.

A BIT OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR SW ZONES

TWD DAYBREAK TUESDAY AS A SLIVER OF WARMER AIR ALOFT /WET BULBS JUST

ABOVE ZERO C/ GLIDES NWD IN THE 3-6 KFT AGL LAYER.

MAX TEMPS MONDAY WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN THE NORTH...TO

THE MID 20S NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE.

TEMPS SHOULD FALL BY 5-7F EARLY MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE LEVELING OFF

AS STEADIER/HEAVIER PRECIP SPREADS NE INTO THE AREA AFTER

MIDNIGHT.-- End Changed Discussion --

And this is just the thoughts for the first round, round two must be coming in the soon to be updated long term. What an impending mess.

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ummm HOLY Now this is what I am talking about!

It's a scary looking run so far. Like I said earlier, the NAM is the best model when it comes to cold-air damming situations, and the cold air just isn't budging. In fact, it looks like the precip is hard enough at the onset of the second event to cool the column down, given the 850s migration to the south.

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It's a scary looking run so far. Like I said earlier, the NAM is the best model when it comes to cold-air damming situations, and the cold air just isn't budging. In fact, it looks like the precip is hard enough at the onset of the second event to cool the column down, given the 850s migration to the south.

That high is strong as well on this run and in a great position.

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