PSU8315 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 EURO has more front-end precip. Trying to extract more details. Yeah, it now has the initial overunning on Tuesday - about 0.3" for most, then a little break before Wednesday. Euro is up to near 50 degrees Wednesday afternoon in Harrisburg, but the precip looks to be pretty much over at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 That run is an example of the worst case scenario for the I-80 corridor. That would be a long duration of snow and ice with a 1036mb high sitting over Eastern Canada. With the high and the snowcover, it will be very difficult to warm up north and east of the mountains. Thanks for explaining that model run Brain! Edit: Relatives just come down from Lock Haven. Said I have twice as much snow as what they have. Still snowing moderate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Yeah, it now has the initial overunning on Tuesday - about 0.3" for most, then a little break before Wednesday. Euro is up to near 50 degrees Wednesday afternoon in Harrisburg, but the precip looks to be pretty much over at that point. Hey PSU with my area typically hanging on to the cold air the longest for PA, do you seee us staying all snow, then at the very end of the storm sleet or ZR? Either way I find it hard to believe with a 1033MB HP to the north this warms up at the surface very much, WAA is going to be inevitable unless we quickly hand over the engery to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Yeah, it now has the initial overunning on Tuesday - about 0.3" for most, then a little break before Wednesday. Euro is up to near 50 degrees Wednesday afternoon in Harrisburg, but the precip looks to be pretty much over at that point. Pretty significant temp drop after that. That could be bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Yeah, it now has the initial overunning on Tuesday - about 0.3" for most, then a little break before Wednesday. Euro is up to near 50 degrees Wednesday afternoon in Harrisburg, but the precip looks to be pretty much over at that point. The Euro has had a really tough time with temps this winter it seems, while the GFS has been pretty spot-on. Thunk the Euro again is out to lunch with temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Here is my latest video. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Best guess at the 12z EURO at 96 before the precip ends...you'll see the 850 clearer since that image is on E-wall. Surface line is based off descriptions provided. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Here is my latest video. very good video! keep it up, I'm going to go back to PSU in a couple years to finish up my meteorology degree, I only have 2 years complete, decided to switch my major for the time being to Petroleum technician with all the marcelus shale and oil in general in the area thought this would be good timing . I'm a huge environmentalist so I'm going to do everything in my power to prevent accidents like the Dimock, PA one, with the technology we have there is no excusess for those types of accidents, those were human carelessness accidents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Hey PSU with my area typically hanging on to the cold air the longest for PA, do you seee us staying all snow, then at the very end of the storm sleet or ZR? Either way I find it hard to believe with a 1033MB HP to the north this warms up at the surface very much, WAA is going to be inevitable unless we quickly hand over the engery to the coast. At this point, I would anticipate that you see some mixing with sleet and freezing rain -- but that comes after a pretty long period of snow. Even the warm Euro solution keeps you mainly snow until almost the end. So, I don't expect to stay snow all the way through, but I don't think you'll really have to worry about a changeover to plain rain either, especially if a secondary does develop along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 very good video! keep it up, I'm going to go back to PSU in a couple years to finish up my meteorology degree, I only have 2 years complete, decided to switch my major for the time being to Petroleum technician with all the marcelus shale and oil in general in the area thought this would be good timing . I'm a huge environmentalist so I'm going to do everyting in my power to prevent accidents like the Dimock, PA one, with the technology we have there is no excusess for those types of accidents, those were human carelessness accidents. Thank you. It is not easy to do these videos either. Materials I have are two lamps, bed sheet for background, and sony vegas. (Which means I can't actually see what I am pointing at I just have to guess.) lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The Euro has had a really tough time with temps this winter it seems, while the GFS has been pretty spot-on. Thunk the Euro again is out to lunch with temps? I do think the Euro is getting a little generous with the blowtorch in a situation like this. Even if a secondary low doesn't form along the coast, the cold high to the north would make it hard to warm up. I'm not saying we'll stay below freezing the whole time, but it looks like a situation that the warmest areas east of the mountains maybe get into the mid and upper 30s -- and that could be after the precip ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Honestly we see this like every time with this kinda of storm. Models have us getting warm too quick. I remember one ice storm they were saying we should get above 32 by 7am, it was like 2pm and still below freezing. Not saying it will happen this time too but, I wouldn't doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Honestly we see this like every time with this kinda of storm. Models have us getting warm too quick. I remember one ice storm they were saying we should get above 32 by 7am, it was like 2pm and still below freezing. Not saying it will happen this time too but, I wouldn't doubt it. The last event like this I got to around 32 in the morning then leveled off and actually dropped slightly. Never broke above freezing really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Thank you. It is not easy to do these videos either. Materials I have are two lamps, bed sheet for background, and sony vegas. (Which means I can't actually see what I am pointing at I just have to guess.) lol Yeah its tough to work with amateur equipment just starting out. Are you going to school for meteorology or thinking about it? If so I would save those videos and hand them in to future intern positions or first time jobs. I had an internship for WJET-tv out of Erie, PA a year ago and used some of my homemade videos. Any graduates from penn st a few years ago remember a chick by the name of Amelia Segal? she was pretty cool working with. PSU you might know her? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Yeah its tough to work with amateur equipment just starting out. Are you going to school for meteorology or thinking about it? If so I would save those videos and hand them in to future intern positions or first time jobs. I had an internship for WJET-tv out of Erie, PA a year ago and used some of my homemade videos. Any graduates from penn st a few years ago remember a chick by the name of Amelia Segal? she was pretty cool working with. PSU you might know her? Google is your friend http://www.facebook....v=1224940391827 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Google is your friend http://www.facebook....v=1224940391827 haha well if no one believes me thats cool lol, but yeah she was at WJET-tv a year ago and went to buffalo. I had a blast at PSU and can't wait to go back in finish up. Fred Gadomski was the most down to earth guy you could ever meet, by far my favorite met there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Yeah its tough to work with amateur equipment just starting out. Are you going to school for meteorology or thinking about it? If so I would save those videos and hand them in to future intern positions or first time jobs. I had an internship for WJET-tv out of Erie, PA a year ago and used some of my homemade videos. Any graduates from penn st a few years ago remember a chick by the name of Amelia Segal? she was pretty cool working with. PSU you might know her? I was going to psu. Had health issues and sucked with math. But, I am good with forecasting... Stupid math.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I was going to psu. Had health issues and sucked with math. But, I am good with forecasting... Stupid math.. if weather is your passion stick with it, I'm not by far the best math wiz, I hired a tutor to make sure I understood it. I have only takin up to Calc-2 though still have two more classes of that bull, but when it comes to completely understanding the dynamics of the atmosphere you definetly need it, cloud physics FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 if weather is your passion stick with it, I'm not by far the best math wiz, I hired a tutor to make sure I understood it. I have only takin up to Calc-2 though still have two more classes of that bull, but when it comes to completely understanding the dynamics of the atmosphere you definetly need it, cloud physics FTW I was always good with math, but college calculus was very painful -- dragged my GPA down a few points, that's for sure. There were days when I considered changing majors, but I got through it. The early years were the harder courses -- junior and senior years were better because I was in almost all meteo courses, some of which required very little math. If it's your passion, stick with it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSU8315 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Honestly we see this like every time with this kinda of storm. Models have us getting warm too quick. I remember one ice storm they were saying we should get above 32 by 7am, it was like 2pm and still below freezing. Not saying it will happen this time too but, I wouldn't doubt it. Yeah, the NAM is the only model that really handles low-level cold well since it understands the topography of the area. When we get into the NAM's range, the surface 32 line will be something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I was always good with math, but college calculus was very painful -- dragged my GPA down a few points, that's for sure. There were days when I considered changing majors, but I got through it. The early years were the harder courses -- junior and senior years were better because I was in almost all meteo courses, some of which required very little math. If it's your passion, stick with it! I finished 2.5 yrs got ill and now money is an issue too. I like what I do now. Hoping to make something of our site down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I was always good with math, but college calculus was very painful -- dragged my GPA down a few points, that's for sure. There were days when I considered changing majors, but I got through it. The early years were the harder courses -- junior and senior years were better because I was in almost all meteo courses, some of which required very little math. If it's your passion, stick with it Yeah I'm definetly going back to it for sure, It's my passion for sure, I like anything under the Earth and Mineral Science program, just figured to have a back up plan with something that is pretty safe, Energy is always going to be a need whether it be renewable or non-renewable and I'm 100% for renewable but unfortunately everything is based off petroleum and hyrdrocarbon fractions, let it be plastics , fuels, cosmetics, and certain medicines. it's going to take a while to introduce a new energy infrastructure. Anyways sorry to be off topic, its still snowing fairly well right now, probably getting a little lake enhancement along with the clipper, have 1.5" currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I was always good with math, but college calculus was very painful -- dragged my GPA down a few points, that's for sure. There were days when I considered changing majors, but I got through it. The early years were the harder courses -- junior and senior years were better because I was in almost all meteo courses, some of which required very little math. If it's your passion, stick with it! I'm a second semester student and I have a ways to go in math -- only up to A2/Trig this semester. Calc/Physics still awaits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Well, the clipper is performing quite nicely here. We have a fresh new inch so far and it's snowing moderately with nice, big flakes at the moment. Temp is 28.9 right now as opposed to 33.1 for yesterdays clipper. Still, the snow IS having a hard time accumulating on surfaces that would be in sunlight on a clear day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jen2swt Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Was getting snow pellets for awhile. I actually saw the an actual shape of a snowflake, lol. I tried taking a pic but it wouldn't focus on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afvet89 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 talk about an overperformer .Its still snowing moderate here with just about 2 inches on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 15z SREFs show a devastating ice storm in the making for the central 2/3rds of PA (going north/south). Over 1" of precip in some areas in 24hrs, and the surface below freezing.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Read in the PHL/NYC thread that the higher your elevation in this setup, the more likely it will be rain because it's LL cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Also to note the models been running a degree or two too high so that can play a major role. Yesterdays predicted high 35 Hi 33. Today 34 at 31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Wow we may just get to the WWA criteria, we are sitting at 2.2" of snow and still coming down moderately with big flakes, temp at 28.1°F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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