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January 26-27 Storm Disco/Obs II


Baroclinic Zone

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OT but wxtap now has high res nextrad as the default. Nice. Shows that GC band pretty nicely.

It's layin' down right now Jerry. Gotta gat while the gettin's good. I'll be very happy to see you and Ginx get lit up later the only other original believers!!lol For now I am lovin' this crushin'.

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Looking at water vapor, the explosion of convective cloud tops to the N and NW of the ULL and the latest radar...I have to think that the RUC is going to do pretty well....18z GFS too. Should be a pretty major snowstorm over at least the eastern 2/3rds of SNE if not just about all of it if the bands can hang on long enough in W MA.

Now that's a declaration!

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Starting to come down good here with moderate snow under that band taking shape here in far W MA. 26.2 degrees, so snow should be a bit drier here than on the coastal plain. I really like the S to N motion of that stuff down in SW CT. Maybe we'll be on the good side of the gradient (big difference between ALB, PSF, and BAF looking likely), contrary to what the models have all been saying and wind up in the deformation band. MRG should do real well, even if I miss out a bit.

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KDCA 270052Z 1/2SM R01/5000VP6000FT SN BR OVC008 01/00 A2963 RMK AO2 SLP033 SNINCR 1/3 P0009 T00110000

KBWI 270054Z 1/2SM R10/3500V4000FT SN FG BKN003 OVC010 01/00 A2959 RMK AO2 SLP022 SNINCR 1/4 P0027 T00060000

Hopefully en rout....

IAD has been getting 2"/hr and has a depth up to 8".
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RUC seems to be the model of the day so far. Good for it.

Yeah, obviously it was too far NW but it's been better than the rest. Smoked the euro too.

HRRR is an interesting model. Not sure what to make of what it keeps doing with the precip over our area - each run. It's been followed by the RUC 1 hour later each time.

Note the big difference at 8z over the area. I really do like where this is going so long as it stays cold enough. The HRRR is aggressively backing away from the more NW solution.

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Starting to come down good here with moderate snow under that band taking shape here in far W MA. 26.2 degrees, so snow should be a bit drier here than on the coastal plain. I really like the S to N motion of that stuff down in SW CT. Maybe we'll be on the good side of the gradient (big difference between ALB, PSF, and BAF looking likely), contrary to what the models have all been saying and wind up in the deformation band. MRG should do real well, even if I miss out a bit.

Yeah, still going straight north which seems fantastic for people to my north. It is about 10 minutes out. I cannot wait to see what it brings us.

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